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Introduction to AGW (Read 8599 times)
Jovial Monk
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Introduction to AGW
Sep 30th, 2020 at 7:13pm
 
AGW has enormous impact on plants and critters, surface and marine. It is therefore extremely relevant to this board.



I find this an extremely interesting graph for many reasons:

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« Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2020 at 7:08pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #1 - Sep 30th, 2020 at 7:16pm
 
The orange curve is the Milankovitch cycle, insolation (sunlight reaching the surface) north of 60°N latitude. When it is low the NH gets very cold and major ice ages form. This has happened at 100,000 year intervals for the last 800,000 years. It is due to regular changes in the orbit of our planet and the inclination of the axis of rotation, precession of Equinoxes etc.

At about 4500 years ago the Milankovitch Cycle started declining and is getting close to bottom. We see temperatures start to decline, but they start to decline slower and slower over time. Hmmm what could the reason be?

As the chart shows: intensive agriculture started in 5500. This means deforestation, more animals to pull ploughs and carts, more cities–agriculture is not carried out by nomads.

As cities and intensive agriculture continued and the human population grew more and with it the number of draft, dairy and meat animals more and more CO2 was generated. Eventually the Industrial Revolution took off and is still spreading and the globe has warmed 1.1°C since 1905.

I will do some research into the decline in insect populations and why they are declining. AGW will be part of it I am sure.
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« Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2020 at 5:48pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #2 - Sep 30th, 2020 at 9:25pm
 
Despite forcings from the Milankovitch Cycle the Arctic is not getting colder—Arctic ice has been disappearing all through the satellite period 1979–. The last two melt seasons have seen massive amounts of Arctic Sea Ice melt in place or melting after being exported from the Arctic Ocean down the Framm Strait (between Greenland and the Svalbard archipelago.)

Scientists examining climate forcings find that CO2 by far has the biggest influence.

In the Arctic there is another positive feedback: albedo is decreasing.

A world completely covered with ice—which has happened twice, both times ended by CO2 from volcanic eruptions causing warming—has a high albedo. A world, or an object, that is all black has a very low albedo. High albedo surfaces reflect a lot of radiant energy away, low albedo surfaces, like exposed Arctic Ocean, absorb sunlight and are warmed by it. This sees more bottom of the ice melting in what should be the freezing season. Salty warm water is heavier than colder but fresh, not salty, water. Hence a lot of the huge amount of heat absorbed by the Arctic Ocean this NH summer is still there, until conditions change.

So no ice age major or minor is happening any time soon. Warming is what is happening, more and more heat accumulating especially in the oceans.

CO2 is accumulating in the oceans too*, making them more acidic due to the increase in H+ and HCO3+ ions. This is causing problems for small fauna in the oceans, zooplankton. Terrestrial heat dries out vegetation causing any fires started by dry lightning to burn much more fiercely, killing huge numbers of animals and destroying property and killing people.

*Some say the oceans are outgassing CO2, that heat causes the growth in CO2, not burning fossil fuels. A preposterous notion probably floated by FF interests. Oceans do lose their ability to absorb gases as they warm. But the oceans are so vast and the specific heat of water is so high that the nearly 50% increase in partial pressure of CO2 vastly outweighs the effect of the tiny temperature increase on solubility. The oceans absorb over half of the manmade CO2 absorbed by carbon sinks.
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« Last Edit: Oct 2nd, 2020 at 8:10pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #3 - Oct 1st, 2020 at 6:25am
 
Do we know for sure that it is CO2 that is causing AGW? Yes, we do!

Quote:
In 1859, Tyndall showed that gases including carbon dioxide and water vapour can absorb heat. ... He realised that any change in the amount of water vapour or carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could change the climate. His work therefore set a foundation for our understanding of climate change and meteorology.


https://theconversation.com/john-tyndall-the-forgotten-co-founder-of-climate-sci...

There is one difference between CO2 and water vapor: water vapor condenses and falls out as rain, hail or snow, CO2 at our temperatures does not (not even on the top of the Antarctic Plateau because the partial pressure is too low: any CO2 that may freeze there sublimates back to gaseous CO2 quickly.)

CO2 is the driver of global warming, water vapor is a feedback: More CO2 more warming the more warming the more water evaporates from the oceans and the more water vapor the more warming.

Our planet is a globe in a vacuum that is hit everyday by radiation including UV, visible light and a small amount of near infrared. This warms our globe causing IR to be radiated by it which acts to cool the climate. Want to know more? Read up on black bodies and the Stefan-Boltzmann law governing how much radiation is emitted from a surface:

https://www.britannica.com/science/Stefan-Boltzmann-law

If this infrared radiation reaches space then the planet is cooled. Look at our Moon, located in the same area of space as us, it has huge temperature swings between light and dark—no atmosphere with greenhouse gases in it to moderate temperature loss.

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« Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2020 at 6:56am by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #4 - Oct 1st, 2020 at 6:35am
 
So a photon of IR (radiation in the far infrared part of the spectrum of electromagnetic radiation) is emitted from the surface. There are billions of CO2 molecules in every cubic centimetre of the atmosphere near the surface known as the lower troposphere. One of these molecules will absorb the IR photon within a few metres of the surface.

That molecule of CO2 is “excited” or has an increase in its energy level. The two oxygen atoms vibrate around the carbon atom. Within an incredibly short time the CO2 molecule collides with thousands of nitrogen and oxygen molecules, transferring its extra energy to these molecules that do not absorb IR themselves.

As we increase atmospheric CO2 we are decreasing the amount of IR reaching space which means we are decreasing the ability of the surface + lower troposphere to cool. There is no doubt about that:

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« Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2020 at 9:13am by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #5 - Oct 1st, 2020 at 6:46am
 
Have I quoted Al bleeping Gore in the above posts? No I have not!

Have I predicted weather in the above posts? No I have not!



Further posts on AGW will relate to harm (or increase in pest populations and their spread) to populations of critters including people caused by AGW. This includes pests that AGW lets spread from tropical areas to subtropical areas.

Booby owes me some sincere apologies, he has LIED about me hundreds of times over the years since he was made Mod of Environment and turned it into the Dubyne board.

A bit of cold weather is no indication of ICE AGE! Nor is a bit of warm weather a sign of global warming. Summing up heat and cold records tho (From https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records:}

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« Last Edit: Oct 2nd, 2020 at 8:15pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Ajax
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Re: Effect of AGW on critters
Reply #6 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 10:29am
 
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) (manmade) is a small part of Global Warming (natural).

Trying to control natural global warming where the Earth goes through cycles of warming and cooling is more irresponsible than trying to subdue AGW.

We cannot control nature ie that natural variation of the Earths weather patterns and climate.

But what I would like you guys who believe in AGW to do, is to ask the United Nations to STOP carrying out all these weather modification programs around the world until we have the technology to asses the impacts of such programs.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Effect of AGW on critters
Reply #7 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 10:41am
 
Ajax, “natural cycles” are cooling the globe. These cycles are:

1. The Milankovitch Cycle—mentioned in the OP. Should be causing deep cooling in the NH, it is warming.

2. Solar cycles. Sun was at a maximum for a large part of the 20th century. In the 1960s and again in the 1980s solar activity waned—we are in a solar minimum (not a Grand Solar Minimum) yet the globe is STILL warming.
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Re: Effect of AGW on critters
Reply #8 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 11:03am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Oct 25th, 2020 at 10:41am:
Ajax, “natural cycles” are cooling the globe. These cycles are:

1. The Milankovitch Cycle—mentioned in the OP. Should be causing deep cooling in the NH, it is warming.

2. Solar cycles. Sun was at a maximum for a large part of the 20th century. In the 1960s and again in the 1980s solar activity waned—we are in a solar minimum (not a Grand Solar Minimum) yet the globe is STILL warming.


I don't dispute that we have warmed never have, we have been warming since the end of the of little ice age (LIA) the year 1850.

But in this time we have not been warming in accordance with manmade CO2 emissions and we never have.

Since 1850 the end of the LIA til now we have warmed 0.8°C and in accordance with empirical data (observations of nature) we are destined to warm by a further 1°C by the end of this century.

Since the year 2000 we have sent up into the atmosphere double the manmade CO2 emissions that we sent up in the preceding years to the year 2000.

Yet this doubling of manmade CO2 sent into the atmosphere after the year 2000 didn't register neither in the steady annual increase of atmospheric CO2 nor in the average global mean temperature.

The natural CO2 that has been degasing from natural sinks due to the rise in temperature from the LIA totally eclipses mans CO2 emissions as the steady rise in atmospheric CO2 shows.

And due to the logarithmic affect of atmospheric CO2 the temperature has remained stable, hence your hiatus and pulling your hair out trying to come up with an excuse.

Nearly as bad as the hot spot in the tropopause which only existing on the computer circulation models.

Now stop listening to politicized science and start listen to real world science.............. Wink Smiley

...
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Effect of AGW on critters
Reply #9 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 11:23am
 
Your graph, UAH6, shows a steady rise in temperatures with fluctuations up or down from the trend line. It is an outlier, the people concerned are AGW deniers and so UAH6 shows a lower temperature rise than the other series yet its rate of increase has increased from 0.14°C/decade to now 0.15°C/decade, the other series, HadCRUT etc etc show 0.2°C/decade.

We have warmed 0.6°C since 1990, by the end of this century we will have increased by 0.8°C from now. think what that does to the ice sheets and so to sea level rise as well as further sea level rise by thermal expansion of the top 2000m of the oceans. Flooding, extreme heat—more and more places recording temperatures over 50°C!

And please forget about the LIA—it did not exist over the whole globe at the same time, was mostly a north Atlantic thing, US/Canada and UK/Western Europe. Look at this chart to see the tiny temperature drop MWP to LIA:

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Re: Effect of AGW on critters
Reply #10 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 11:26am
 
You are stealing Environment topics.

Monk - move this thread to Environment.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Effect of AGW on critters
Reply #11 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 11:32am
 
Piss off, Dubyne lover. You have destroyed your board, leave mine alone, OK?

This thread is about the effect of AGW on critters, not weather reports “proving” (LOL!) that the globe is warming, the globe is cooling, we are in an ice age. Arrant nonsense!

FD should rename Environment to “Nonsense” or “The Ice Age Cometh” and set up an Environment board to discuss the environment.

You are probably on your knees to frontbottom Setanta begging and beseeching him to move this thread.

This board deals with critters mainly. How AGW affects critters is important and totally relevant to this board. So piss off!
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Ajax
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #12 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 12:00pm
 
Well JV what better way to prove something to you other than taking it straight from the horses mouth.

Two IPCC professors admit the hiatus is real and may continue until 2020 - 2025.

...

https://notrickszone.com/2013/09/21/warming-gets-delayed-again-ipcc-scientist-mo...
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #13 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 12:11pm
 
Lots of people (Judith Curry for one) have predicted warming to end or cooling to begin. Anybody can be an IPCC reviewer, not necessarily just experts in climate science (=physics, basically.)

The world keeps stubbornly warming despite natural cycles cooling us.

To refute AGW you will need to overturn the particle/wave theory of light (Electromagnetic radiation) and quantum physics.

CO2 and other gases with 3 or more molecules (including man-made HFCs) methane, water vapor, nitrous oxide and ozone absorb IR. This is routinely shown in experiments dating to around 1850. The GHG molecule gets excited—a higher energy level—and in billions of collisions per a second with N2 & O2 molecule transfers the energy of the photon of IR to those molecules. These have a bit more energy—heat. The photon of IR does not reach space, the globe does  not cool and keeps getting hit by solar radiation.

AGW is real. Scary, but real. It is having devastating consequence on the real world incl the drastic reduction of insect species and effects of that spreading through the web of life.

I will talk about one aspect of weather: hotter air creates more powerful convection currents in the atmosphere. A thunderstorm can send moist air far higher up the atmosphere, high enough for hail to form and the hailstones to increase in size as they fall until the fall past the level of clouds. Hail is increasing in frequency and size of hailstones.

Fortunately, economics now makes carbon free renewable energy cheaper than running an existing coal station, electric cars are more economical over the lifecycle of a car.

If you are worried about AGW then instead of denying it, do something about it, solar panels on your roof, planting trees in your garden, joining a group that plants native plants, regenerate/replant degraded river banks etc.
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« Last Edit: Oct 25th, 2020 at 12:30pm by Jovial Monk »  

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Jovial Monk
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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #14 - Oct 25th, 2020 at 12:34pm
 
There is nothing stating that Critters and Gardens is about pets only. There is nothing stating that the effects of nature—in this case AGW—on animals wild and domestic cannot be discussed here.

I have, apart from Iron Butterflies and one beer review, concentrated 100% on Critters and Gardens.

Cretins who talk crap about ice ages will have to start their own threads. If they can.
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