Australian Politics Forum - Introduction to AGW

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #60 - Dec 28^th, 2020 at 2:56pm Related to the graph in the OP but going back a bit further is this:
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #61 - Dec 28^th, 2020 at 2:59pm Clearly, temperatures should be falling but they are rising!
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #62 - Dec 28^th, 2020 at 6:30pm Poison Ivy is whinging about me and this board. I never, ever said it would be the same as when that old fart Herbert was running it. TONS of stuff about critters. Cats should be killed until no more cats, domestic or feral, exist in Australia, then our native wildlife might have a chance to recover from their depredations.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #63 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:47am

That tiresome pansy Booby is asking me to apologise for the flipping weather again.

I HAVE pointed out, tho the was removed by a GMod interfering in MRBs, that the BoM has recorded that very cold weather that occurred 1.73% of the time in the 1950s now happens 1% of the time. NOTHING about AGW science says we cannot get even very cold weather, just not as frequently.

To ram this home past the VERY thick layer of bone that is Booby’s skull here is NOAA’s summary of record weather:

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #64 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:51am

Link: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

We see high max and high minimum temperatures far outweigh low max/min temperatures. We expect this from the BoM graph showing the skew of the max temperature distribution to the hot side.

So from weather data scientifically and carefully collected and standardised we can see cold weather is declining in frequency.

No apology to a high school dropout about the flipping weather!

Notice too the increasing precipitation, including snow, expected of a warming world

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18034 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #65 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 12:00pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:51am: Notice too the increasing precipitation, including snow, expected of a warming world Two things petal. 1. You must have included the wrong link because 1 years data shows no trend, apart from seasonal. 2. A "warming world" is not proof of AGW.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #66 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 4:17pm

We see weather events are increasingly warm. That is what I said.

Proof of AGW is basic physics: SWR, LWR, radiative properties of CO2, CH4 etc.

We have known from 1850 that CO2 and CH4 are opaque to certain frequencies of LWR, infrared. Satellite spectroscopy shows top of atmosphere LWR is missing energy in the spectra of the GHGs.

Seems pretty conclusive to me.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #67 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 4:20pm

As to “a warming world is not proof of AGW” it is a prerequisite of proof, no? If the world was cooling long term then AGW would not be a viable theory.

BUT

The world is warming when:

1. the sun has gone a bit quiet since the 1980s

2. The Milankovitch cycle should see the world, especially the Arctic, be cold and cooling.

But the globe is warming, 1°C since 1980, 4°C in the Arctic so a reasonable person would conclude AGW is plausible.

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lee

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #68 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 4:58pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 4:17pm:

We see weather events are increasingly warm. That is what I said.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:51am:

Notice too the increasing precipitation, including snow, expected of a warming world

Or do you resile from that?

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 4:17pm:

Satellite spectroscopy shows top of atmosphere LWR is missing energy in the spectra of the GHGs.

lee wrote on Oct 25^th, 2020 at 3:40pm:

"The basic physics underlying this global warming, the greenhouse gas effect, is simple. An increase in gases such as CO2 makes the atmosphere more opaque at infrared wavelengths. This added opacity causes the planet’s heat radiation to space to arise from higher, colder levels in the atmosphere, thus reducing emission of heat energy to space. "

Hansen et al.; 2011

https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1140

[url]https://i.ibb.co/QfTqJ5B/ghge-2-optical-thickness-of-atmosphere-is-unchange
d.png[/url]

Nope. The opacity hasn't changed beyond norms.

https://i.ibb.co/0QGsPMn/ghge-3-OLR-1985-2018.png

Nope no reduced heat energy to space.

"The partition of the outgoing long wave radiation into upward atmospheric emittance and surface transmitted radiation components is based on the accurate computation of the true greenhouse-gas optical thickness for the radiosonde data. New relationships among the flux components have been found and are used to construct a quasi-allsky model of the earth's atmospheric energy transfer process. In the 1948-2008 time period the global average annual mean true greenhouse-gas optical thickness is found to be time-stationary."

https://www.jstor.org/stable/43734929?seq=1

More heating should give higher Relative Humidity

"The resultant, more humid atmosphere, causes a hotspot over the tropics at altitudes of 10km to 12km). "

"Temperature trends from raw radiosonde data are also inconsistent with climate models, which project an upper tropospheric warming maximum, especially in the tropics"

(Santer et al. 2005; Trenberth et al. 2007; Santer et al. 2008)

"the vertical trend profiles in the tropics did not show the enhanced upper tropospheric amplification as predicted by climate models"

http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00668.1

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 4:20pm:

But the globe is warming, 1°C since 1980, 4°C in the Arctic so a reasonable person would conclude AGW is plausible.

"The Arctic region has had its second-warmest year since 1900, continuing a pattern of extreme heat, ice melt and environmental transformation at the top of the world, scientists reported Tuesday."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-arctic-idUSKBN28I2BM

Please cite this alleged 4C increase.

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« Last Edit: Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:16pm by lee »

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #69 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:33pm So, the globe is warming despite: 1. The sun going a bit quiet in the 1980s 2. The Milankovitch cycle should be causing cooling. You did not try to dispute the above. For good reason.
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lee

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #70 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:57pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:33pm:

You did not try to dispute the above. For good reason.

Because we know exactly how much the earth has warmed since 1880? Despite Phil Jones saying the SST normals between 40 and 60s being mostly made up. And that was in 2009.

And the data is still sparse. Grin

Or don't you think SST's have anything to do with global temperature?

What is the good reason petal? That we know even in the 21st century the average temperature to within +/-0.01C? Grin

Land +1.77 ± 0.23 +3.19 ± 0.41

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202011

BTW =- I notice you didn't correct me on Arctic temperatures. With good reason. Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #71 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:59pm So no argument re warming despite natural forcings cooling us?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18034 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #72 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 6:00pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 5:59pm: So no argument re warming despite natural forcings cooling us? Apart from sparse data?
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 47794 Gender:	Re: Introduction to AGW Reply #73 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 6:01pm I accept your white flag.
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lee

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Re: Introduction to AGW
Reply #74 - Jan 5^th, 2021 at 6:11pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 5^th, 2021 at 6:01pm:

I accept your white flag.

Poor petal. Loses again and claims a white flag.

Today I have shown no loss of opacity of the atmosphere.
No loss of heat energy escaping the earth.
The Arctic has not warmed 4C since 1980.

Here is a chart of Total Precipitable Water

Nope that hasn't gone up either. Grin

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