We know Australia has warmed 1.1°C since 1910.
1910 is used as the baseline because that is when Stevenson screens became universal in weather stations. Berkeley Earth Systems (BEST) used pre 1910 data, found it fitted well with post 1910. BEST was started by skeptics who thought homogenisation of temperature data (to cope with movement of weather stations, change in time of observations etc) made the data useless or suspect. They got some money from the Koch Bros—and found that temperatures had been rising just as the homogenised temperature data showed. The people at BEST are no longer skeptics about AGW
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The rising temperatures do not follow a smooth trend—from the 2018 Report:
Quote:The year-to-year changes in Australia’s climate are mostly associated with natural climate variability such as El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean and phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Indian Ocean. This natural variability now occurs on top of the warming trend, which can modify the impact of these natural drivers on the Australian climate.
Big volcanic eruptions spew aerosols into the upper atmosphere where they reflect some sunlight back into space, slightly cooling the globe for maybe a year—another source of variation that is not predictable.
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How does the country warm up?
Quote:Increases in temperature are observed across Australia in all seasons with both day and night-time temperatures showing warming. The shift to a warmer climate in Australia is accompanied by more extreme daily heat events.
So days get warmer as do nights. Winters get warmer as do summers—and in summer there are more extreme heat events. This is a figure from the 2016 Report—note how the maximum temperature curve has not just moved to the hot side but is skewing more and more to the hot side while the minimum temperature, also moved to the hot side has become more symmetrical, more bell shaped as extreme cold events happen less and less (this is the closest I will come to discussing weather.)
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And here, from the 2018 report is a graph of extreme hot events:
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There is no doubt (scientists would say “very high probability”) that Australia is warming. So are the seas around it—a post for another day.