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State of the Climate Report 2018 (Read 226 times)
Jovial Monk
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State of the Climate Report 2018
Oct 29th, 2020 at 4:58pm
 
Quote:
Key points


Australia


Australia's climate has warmed just over 1 °C since 1910 leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

Oceans around Australia have warmed by around 1 °C since 1910, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.

Sea levels are rising around Australia, increasing the risk of inundation.

The oceans around Australia are acidifying (the pH is decreasing).

April to October rainfall has decreased in the southwest of Australia. Across the same region May–July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 20 per cent since 1970.

There has been a decline of around 11 per cent in April–October rainfall in the southeast of Australia since the late 1990s.

Rainfall has increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.

Streamflow has decreased across southern Australia. Streamflow has increased in northern Australia where rainfall has increased.

There has been a long-term increase in extreme fire weather, and in the length of the fire season, across large parts of Australia.


http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/

I will cover all these points in detail over the next few days.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: State of the Climate Report 2018
Reply #1 - Oct 30th, 2020 at 8:22am
 
Temperature


We know Australia has warmed 1.1°C since 1910.

1910 is used as the baseline because that is when Stevenson screens became universal in weather stations. Berkeley Earth Systems (BEST) used pre 1910 data, found it fitted well with post 1910. BEST was started by skeptics who thought homogenisation of temperature data (to cope with movement of weather stations, change in time of observations etc) made the data useless or suspect. They got some money from the Koch Bros—and found that temperatures had been rising just as the homogenised temperature data showed. The people at BEST are no longer skeptics about AGW  Smiley

The rising temperatures do not follow a smooth trend—from the 2018 Report:

Quote:
The year-to-year changes in Australia’s climate are mostly associated with natural climate variability such as El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean and phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Indian Ocean. This natural variability now occurs on top of the warming trend, which can modify the impact of these natural drivers on the Australian climate.


Big volcanic eruptions spew aerosols into the upper atmosphere where they reflect some sunlight back into space, slightly cooling the globe for maybe a year—another source of variation that is not predictable.

...

How does the country warm up?
Quote:
Increases in temperature are observed across Australia in all seasons with both day and night-time temperatures showing warming. The shift to a warmer climate in Australia is accompanied by more extreme daily heat events.


So days get warmer as do nights. Winters get warmer as do summers—and in summer there are more extreme heat events. This is a figure from the 2016 Report—note how the maximum temperature curve has not just moved to the hot side but is skewing more and more to the hot side while the minimum temperature, also moved to the hot side has become more symmetrical, more bell shaped as extreme cold events happen less and less (this is the closest I will come to discussing weather.)

...

And here, from the 2018 report is a graph of extreme hot events:

...

There is no doubt (scientists would say “very high probability”) that Australia is warming. So are the seas around it—a post for another day.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: State of the Climate Report 2018
Reply #2 - Oct 31st, 2020 at 5:08am
 
Fireweather


Quote:
The annual 90th percentile of daily FFDI (i.e., the most extreme 10 per cent of fire weather days) has increased in recent decades across many regions of Australia, especially in southern and eastern Australia. There has been an associated increase in the length of the fire weather season. Climate change, including increasing temperatures, is contributing to these changes.


So more frequent high fire danger days. A longer fire season making fuel reduction burns much harder to manage. In La Nina years we have less danger if bushfires.
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