Australian Politics Forum - Shy polling...

Brian Ross Gold Member Offline Representative of me Posts: 42368	Shy polling... Nov 9^th, 2020 at 2:38pm Don't know quite what do about them, really. Makes life that much harder for pollsters...
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17995 Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #1 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:00pm So the pollsters got it wrong again.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 139402 Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #2 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:00pm: So the pollsters got it wrong again. They got the margin wrong. They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.
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lee

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Re: Shy polling...
Reply #3 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:14pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They got the margin wrong.

Boy did they ever. Grin

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

Nope. They predicted a Biden-slide. Not just more votes.

According to Benford's Law. Follows expectations

Does not follow expectations.

Does not follow expectations.

Again does not follow expectations.

But only in the seats Biden won. Anomalous?

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Shy polling...
Reply #4 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:16pm

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:14pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They got the margin wrong.

Boy did they ever. Grin

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

Nope.

Yep.

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

At least 4 million more.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17995 Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #5 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:19pm greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:16pm: At least 4 million more. But you know that it isn't just voter numbers don't you petal. You found that out last election.
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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: Shy polling...
Reply #6 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:25pm

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:14pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They got the margin wrong.

Boy did they ever. Grin

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:03pm:

They predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

Nope. They predicted a Biden-slide. Not just more votes.

[url]https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/
fulton.png[/url]

According to Benford's Law. Follows expectations

[url]https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/
milwaukee.png[/url]

Does not follow expectations.

[url]https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/
chicago.png[/url]

Does not follow expectations.

[url]https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cjph8914/2020_benfords/main/images/
allegheny.png[/url]

Again does not follow expectations.

But only in the seats Biden won. Anomalous?

Why have you put in vote counts versus poll numbers.

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Shy polling...
Reply #7 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:31pm

lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:19pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:16pm:

At least 4 million more.

But you know that it isn't just voter numbers don't you petal. You found that out last election. Wink

The polls don't predict electoral college votes - they predict votes for each candidate.

When they conduct a poll, they ask "If an election was held today, who would you vote for?"

They don't ask "If an election was held today, who do you think would receive the most electoral college votes?".

The news networks then take that raw data and make their own assumptions from it.

The pollsters predicted that more people would vote for Biden, and they did.

They were way out on the margin though.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17995 Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #8 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:50pm Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:25pm: Why have you put in vote counts versus poll numbers. Because it puts the election in some perspective. Did you want me to remove it? Why?
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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #9 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:51pm lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:50pm: Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:25pm: Why have you put in vote counts versus poll numbers. Because it puts the election in some perspective. Did you want me to remove it? Why? What perspective do you seek to gain from posting this?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17995 Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #10 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:00pm Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:51pm: What perspective do you seek to gain from posting this? There seems to an an anomaly in voting patterns.
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Prime Minister for Canyons Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 26906 Canberra Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #11 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:04pm lee wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:00pm: Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 3:51pm: What perspective do you seek to gain from posting this? There seems to an an anomaly in voting patterns. Yes but as I posted elsehwere it may just be a sign of how big the wards are. But what a shock thats the perspective you took.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17995 Gender:	Re: Shy polling... Reply #12 - Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:23pm Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Nov 9^th, 2020 at 4:04pm: Yes but as I posted elsehwere it may just be a sign of how big the wards are. or may not be. interesting that you took that position.
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