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Climate change predictions 17 years ago (Read 9867 times)

thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #120 - Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm

lee wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 12:49pm:

You are the one saying he listens to the IPCC experts.

Fraudulent debating: the UN and the world's governments accept the IPCC scientific consensus.

Quote:

GD:

govt fiat deficits are a BENEFIT to the private sector

Nope. You need to factor in price rises in commodities. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Irrelevent; the above (in red text) applies, regardless of private sector prices (which by the way in some cases (eg, essential services) should by controlled to prevent price-gouging by private profit seekers).

Quote:

Simplification doesn't work on complex problems. Dummy. Roll Eyes

The entire flat-earth neoclassical economic orthodoxy relies on simplification of the real economy.

Whereas Keen set out to prove the government's deficit is the private sector's surplus (ie savings), ie, he is specifically dealing with the section of the 'invisible hand' neoclassical charade which was invented when money was regarded as a commodity, and its creation in banks was ignored, in supply and demand theory.

Quote:

So you really don't know what you are talking about. Thanks for that. Dummy. Roll Eyes

You are blinded by your reptilian brain which serves survival of the individual impulses in a predatory world. Those same instincts for personal survival have now created the nuclear arms race..... we have a problem.... aka MAD ( an exquisite acronym....)

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How many assumptions (also known as parameters)?

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." John von Neumann

You are such a dummy. Roll Eyes

Blind, crippled conservative brain: assumptions and parameters are different things.

Quote:

Simplification of a complex problem only gives a generic result, entireley dependent on the underlying assumptions. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Yes, but realizing fiat is inexhaustable (for the fiat-issuing government) is simple....except to blind survival of the fittest 'invisible hand' ideologues, apparently.

« Last Edit: Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:43pm by thegreatdivide »

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #121 - Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 2:38pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Fraudulent debating: the UN and the world's governments accept the IPCC scientific consensus.

The only fraud is you. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Poor petal. Doesn't understand Basic Accounting, doesn't understand Advanced Accounting; doesn't understand Economics. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

The entire flat-earth neoclassical economic orthodoxy relies on simplification of the real economy.

So youy are saying Keen is a neoclassical economist. Oh dear. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Whereas Keen set out to prove the government's deficit is the private sector's surplus (ie savings), ie, he is specifically dealing with the section of the 'invisible hand' neoclassical charade which was invented when money was regarded as a commodity, and its creation in banks was ignored, in supply and demand theory.

And hasn't proved anything. As I said it relies on his underlying assumptions. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

You are blinded by your reptilian brain which serves survival of the individual impulses in a predatory world. Those same instincts for personal survival have now created the nuclear arms race..... we have a problem.... aka MAD ( an exquisite acronym....)

We only now have a nuclear arms race. Oh dear. You don't know history either. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Blind, crippled conservative brain: assumptions and parameters are different things.

"In statistics, parametric tests are tests that make assumptions about the underlying distribution of data."

https://www.statology.org/parametric-tests-assumptions/

So tell us how well the parameter proves the assumptions. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Yes, but realizing fiat is inexhaustable (for the fiat-issuing government) is simple..

The "yes" would have been sufficient. Dummy. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #122 - Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm

lee wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 2:38pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Fraudulent debating: the UN and the world's governments accept the IPCC scientific consensus.

The only fraud is you. Dummy. Roll Eyes

You forgot to say why. Fraud.

Quote:

doesn't understand Economics. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Says a low IQ lap-dog of deluded flat earth neoclassical economics.

Quote:

So youy are saying Keen is a neoclassical economist. Oh dear. Dummy. Roll Eyes

No: Keen set out to prove the error of the neoclassical assertions re government debt

Quote:

And hasn't proved anything. As I said it relies on his underlying assumptions. Dummy. Roll Eyes

He has proved the government's debt is the private sector's savings.

Quote:

We only now have a nuclear arms race. Oh dear. You don't know history either. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Since 1945, when the UN was created to "save mankind from the scourge of war" ...(in the new age of MAD).

Yet the reptilian brain's survival impulses ensured the power of veto, for the members of the new UNSC....immediately rendering the UNSC powerless to 'save mankind from the scourge of war....'

You neanderthal...

Quote:

"In statistics, parametric tests are tests that make assumptions about the underlying distribution of data."

Whereas Keen merely reduced the quantum of data he needed, to show the government's deficit is the private sector's surplus.

Quote:

The "yes" would have been sufficient. Dummy. Roll Eyes

No; you claimed reduction of the (near infinity) quantum of data negates Keen's method.

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #123 - Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:33pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

You forgot to say why.

Because it was YOU who said you defer to the IPCC. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

Says a low IQ lap-dog of deluded flat earth neoclassical economics.

Says the person who doesn't understand Any Accounting let alone economics. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

No: Keen set out to prove the error of the neoclassical assertions re government debt

Using a simplified system. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

He has proved the government's debt is the private sector's savings.

He has proved nothing of the sort. Accounting programs don't "prove" anything. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

Since 1945, when the UN was created to "save mankind from the scourge of war" ...(in the new age of MAD).

You were the one said "now". Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

Whereas Keen merely reduced the quantum of data he needed, to show the government's deficit is the private sector's surplus.

And simplification proves nothing. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:11pm:

No; you claimed reduction of the (near infinity) quantum of data negates Keen's method.

Where did I say "reduction of the (near infinity) quantum of data negates Keen's method" Dummy.

Simplification for a simple audience. Dummy. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide Gold Member Offline Australian Politics<br /> Posts: 12441 Gender:	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #124 - Jul 7^th, 2023 at 12:41pm Heard today on radio: earth has experiened (yesterday) its hottest day on record - 17.8 degree C.
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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 17288 Gender:	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #125 - Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:31pm thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 12:41pm: Heard today on radio: earth has experiened (yesterday) its hottest day on record - 17.8 degree C. Where was that? It didn't get to 12C here. A coolish 64F in the old.
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #126 - Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm

lee wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 3:33pm:

Because it was YOU who said you defer to the IPCC. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Me, AND the world's governments. Low IQ?

Quote:

Says the person who doesn't understand Any Accounting let alone economics. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Unlike you, Keen understands both, and I understand macro economics, as shown by my reply to you yesterday in another thread (exposing Lowe's denials he was funding the government during the Covid lock-down).
Your comment "let alone economics" merely shows you conflate micro and macro economics, like all neoclassical economists, which is why they don't understand how the economy works, and, eg, think you have to increase unemployment to control inflation.

Quote:

Using a simplified system. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Complex systems can be better understood by reducing the quantum of input data.

Quote:

He has proved nothing of the sort. Accounting programs don't "prove" anything. Dummy. Roll Eyes

A software program can illustrate the point, if valid inputs are used - unlike your GIGO posts.

Quote:

TGD:

Since 1945, when the UN was created to "save mankind from the scourge of war" ...(in the new age of MAD)

.

You were the one said "now". Dummy. Roll Eyes

You lying (or dementing?) turd; you were the one who said "We only now have a nuclear arms race".

Just to jog your memory, the Soviets joined the race straight away after 1945.

Quote:

And simplification proves nothing. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Depends on the validity of the input data. Certainly the mainstream neoclassical DSGE models of the economy employ invalid, simplified assumptions not related to the real world.

Quote:

"Where did I say "reduction of the (near infinity) quantum of data negates Keen's method" Dummy.

Low IQ? See above: "simplification proves nothing"

Quote:

Simplification for a simple audience. Dummy. ::

Like gruesome DSGE neoclassical economists.

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #127 - Jul 7^th, 2023 at 2:08pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

Me, AND the world's governments. Low IQ?

The governments and you do have a low IQ. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

Nope. Without understanding even Basic Accounting, you can't understand Economics. Merely parroting what you read is not Knowledge. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

Complex systems can be better understood by reducing the quantum of input data.

By reducing the "data" input you miss out on what really happens. Models, as per Minsky, don't have any predictive ability. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

A software program can illustrate the point, if valid inputs are used - unlike your GIGO posts.

A software program can only do what you tell it to do. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

You lying (or dementing?) turd; you were the one who said "We only now have a nuclear arms race".

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 2^nd, 2023 at 1:36pm:

Those same instincts for personal survival have now created the nuclear arms race..... we have a problem.... aka MAD ( an exquisite acronym....)

You were saying? Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

Depends on the validity of the input data. Certainly the mainstream neoclassical DSGE models of the economy employ invalid, simplified assumptions not related to the real world.

Making assumptions is NOT data. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 1:40pm:

See above: "simplification proves nothing"

So where did I say "near infinity"? That was you. Dummy. Roll Eyes

BTW - The hottest ever day?

"On Monday, the average global temperature reached 17.01 degrees Celsius (62.62 Fahrenheit), the highest in the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s data, which goes back to 1979. On Tuesday, it climbed even further, reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius and global temperature remained at this record-high on Wednesday."

Oh dear. Dummy. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #128 - Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm

lee wrote on Jul 7^th, 2023 at 2:08pm:

The governments and you do have a low IQ. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Nice move...even for a low IQ fraudster like you ...Lee against the world....

Quote:

Merely parroting what you read is not Knowledge. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Whereas Keen's et al knowledge of economics is impeccable. ...just as Keynes wrote to an economist friend re Abba Lerner's 'functional finance' concepts published in 1943 (a forrunner of MMT) which Keynes had recently become aquainted with: "His (Lerner's) argument is impeccable, but heaven help the person who tries to put it across to the ordinay man at this time".

Especially to low-grade ideologues like you.

Quote:

By reducing the "data" input you miss out on what really happens. Models, as per Minsky, don't have any predictive ability. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Funny coming from a conservative ideologue fraudster captured by neoclassical concepts illustrated by DSGE models which are totally unrelated to the real world. btw, Minsky is soft-ware, not a model.

Quote:

A software program can only do what you tell it to do. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Low IQ: software is neither the inputs nor the outputs.

Quote:

You were saying? Dummy. Roll Eyes

As shown, your crippled comprehension failed to understand the nuclear arms race started soon after the bombing of Hiroshima, which the "same instincts for personal survival have now created ie since 1945, (with) the nuclear arms race..... we have a problem.... aka MAD".

Courtesy of your blind neanderthal instinct-driven individual sovereignty' ideology which in fact crippled the UNSC from the very beginning of MAD, because it resulted in the US and USSR demanding access to the power of veto, against the wishes of the delegates from smaller countries.

Quote:

Making assumptions is NOT data. Dummy. Roll Eyes

/quote]

The issue is valid data....

[quote] (re "simplification proves nothing")

So where did I say "near infinity"? That was you. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Low IQ non-sequitur. The issue is valid input data, in a form capable of illustraing and enabling underdstanding of complexity.

Quote:

BTW - The hottest ever day?

"On Tuesday, it climbed even further, reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius and global temperature remained at this record-high on Wednesday."

Oh dear. Dummy. Roll Eyes

FITH crippled-brain ideologue arguing my case - again.

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #129 - Jul 8^th, 2023 at 8:12pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

ce move...even for a low IQ fraudster like you ...Lee against the world....

So you show you have no argument. Dummy. Grin

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

Whereas Keen's et al knowledge of economics is impeccable. ..

And yet you can't cite anything. Just empty words...'he proved". Dummy. Grin

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

Funny coming from a conservative ideologue fraudster captured by neoclassical concepts illustrated by DSGE models which are totally unrelated to the real world. btw, Minsky is soft-ware, not a model.

Any time you input assumptions, not data, it becomes a model. Whether those assumptions are about future costs of goods or anything else. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

Low IQ: software is neither the inputs nor the outputs.

Software uses the input, that it is told, to determine outputs. It is merely a way to massage the inputs. The same as using a written spreadsheet, Which is where the term comes from. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

now created ie since 1945,

Nice of you to change the narrative. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

The issue is valid input data, in a form capable of illustraing and enabling underdstanding of complexity.

No data (observations are data) should be the inputs. Anything else is merely computer gaming. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 7:29pm:

FITH crippled-brain ideologue arguing my case - again.

Poor dreary bloated blatherer they said since 1979. The world did not start in 1979. Dummy. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #130 - Jul 12^th, 2023 at 12:15pm

lee wrote on Jul 8^th, 2023 at 8:12pm:

So you show you have no argument. Dummy. Grin

Have you forgotten already? The world is convinced we have to transition to renewables - and I KNOW ffs are expensive and poisonous - a powerful argument I would think.

Be my guest, keep whistling in the wind, while new temp records and weather disasters are now a daily occurence...which everyone except you is blaming on climate change.

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #131 - Jul 12^th, 2023 at 1:08pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 12:15pm:

The world is convinced we have to transition to renewables - and I KNOW ffs are expensive and poisonous - a powerful argument I would think.

Which of course is not science based. Just your feelings.
And you can't even guess at the amount of required materials for the intermittent generation. Roll Eyes

Overal l you have shown you KNOW nothing. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 12:15pm:

Be my guest, keep whistling in the wind, while new temp records and weather disasters are now a daily occurence...which everyone except you is blaming on climate change.

Feelings are not science. Dummy. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #132 - Jul 12^th, 2023 at 3:09pm

lee wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 1:08pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 12:15pm:

The world is convinced we have to transition to renewables - and I KNOW ffs are expensive and poisonous - a powerful argument I would think.

Which of course is not science based. Just your feelings.

....And the "feelings" of the world.... oops.

Quote:

Feelings are not science. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Addressed above; the IPCC scientific consensus has created the "feelings" of the world.

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #133 - Jul 12^th, 2023 at 4:21pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 3:09pm:

....And the "feelings" of the world.... oops.

Except all those in the world that don't believe, or that belief is waning because we haven't had the "dire" predictions come true. Dummy. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 3:09pm:

Addressed above; the IPCC scientific consensus has created the "feelings" of the world.

Which scientific consensus is that?
This is what "The Science" says -

Floods - In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence because of a limited number of studies and differences in the results of these studies, and large modelling uncertainties.

IPCC AR6 WG1 11.5.4

Droughts - There is medium confidence in the ability of ESMs to simulate trends and anomalies in precipitation deficits and AED, and also medium confidence in the ability of ESMs and hydrological models to simulate trends and anomalies in soil moisture and streamflow deficits, on global and regional scales

IPCC AR6 WG1 11.6.3.6

Cyclones - There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity-based metrics due to changes in the technology used to collect the best-track data.

IPCC AR6 WG1 11.7.1.2

The Science doesn't support your view of the consensus. Dummy. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #134 - Jul 12^th, 2023 at 6:39pm

lee wrote on Jul 12^th, 2023 at 4:21pm:

Except all those in the world that don't believe, or that belief is waning because we haven't had the "dire" predictions come true. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Hope springs eternal....do try to keep up with current trends.

Quote:

Which scientific consensus is that?
This is what "The Science" says - (...etc etc)

The IPCC scientific consensus accepted by the UN.

Quote:

The Science doesn't support your view of the consensus. Dummy. Roll Eyes

Funny, didn't NASA report the highest global temp on record, a few days back?