LOL, deniers cling like limpets to chance fluctuations.

BTW - Have a look at IPCC AR6 WG1 Table 12.12 and under snow and ice sheet.



Snow, Glacier and Ice - White - Low confidence in change of direction - either up or down.

Such Certainty.

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 20^th, 2023 at 11:58pm:


Shown in white - LOW confidence. Unless of course you use the flawed RCP8.5.

NOTE 11. Arctic sea ice only. According to CHARCTIC the lowest was 2012, and that year there was a major storm.. So much for that.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50349
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

It seems the "hottest year evah" had no effect.

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 21^st, 2023 at 1:26pm:



Ah back to the models.

"Read more about the model the map is based on."

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/icetext.uk.php

But OK.

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN.png

I will try this one.



"In regards to thickness, in the chart below dark blue, green, yellow and red indicate perennial ice 1-5m or more that resisted melt this summer while the purple is newly-formed ice this fall. "

With entities as vast as the ocean or the atmosphere you need models to get an understanding, to describe what is happening.

In medical research they model how a molecule can get through the cell wall—too tiny.

Our understanding of atoms—a model again.

Re the Arctic, the last thick ice, not as thick as it used to be is off the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. That is where the last big, stable or semi stable polar bear populations are.

As to how much ice remains in the Arctic ocean at the end of the melt season depends on the strength and direction of winds. 2012 saw winds pushing a lot of ice out the Arctic, this year more melt not as much transport out the Arctic.

Climate models are pretty well spot on. They could not see the triple La Nina but apart from that—spot on.

This sniggering at “models” is really childish, time to give it up.

We know:

1. La Nina and volcanoes decrease global temperatures or slow the warming.

2. El Nino conditions increase warming.

Cannot predict WHEN they happen.

Climate is not weather.

AGW is, basically, quantum mechanics: photons of IR hitting molecules with bonds the same as the wavelength of the photon, how the atoms in the molecule react to the extra energy from the absorbed photon.

We know AGW warms the troposphere so cooling the stratosphere. GHGs in the upper layers of the atmosphere re-emit the photons to space, cooling the atmosphere, but as the stratosphere cools emissions decrease, keeping more warmth in the atmosphere-surface-oceans. Emissions increase/decrease with the fourth power of temperature. (double the temperature emissions increase 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16 times!)

The climate models predict the results of all this and the average of the models is inside the observed temperature.

I am sorry, Frank, all this is beyond your comprehension but things work as scientists have speculated and observed for over 200 years. Observed facts–observations—supporting the theory of AGW date back to the 1850s—over 170 years ago!