Australian Politics Forum - Japan's cherry blossoms

Brian Ross Gold Member Offline Representative of me Posts: 41232	Japan's cherry blossoms Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:19pm Japan's cherry blossoms, or sakura, break records with early bloom. Experts say it's due to global warming
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Bobby.

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #1 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:24pm

Brian Ross wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:19pm:

Japan's cherry blossoms, or sakura, break records with early bloom. Experts say it's due to global warming Shocked

Japan's cherry blossoms have reached their flowery peak earlier this year than at any time since formal records started being kept nearly 70 years ago, with experts saying climate change was the likely cause. Shocked

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lee

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #2 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:32pm

Or as I posted elswhere -

A result of UHI from increasing population.

UHI increases temperature. But it is not AGW.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_cities_in_Japan_by_population_by_decade

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Japan_before_the_Meiji_Rest...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Japan_before_the_Meiji_Rest...

Cherry picking at its finest. And some "unnamed" experts? Wink

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« Last Edit: Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:37pm by lee »

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 103772 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Japan's cherry blossoms Reply #3 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:45pm Yes Lee, UHI - the urban heat island effect. Let's not mention that to Monk & Brian, Let them think they have a win for a while.
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AiA Gold Member Offline Posts: 18405 Gender:	Re: Japan's cherry blossoms Reply #4 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 7:52pm lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 6:32pm: A result of UHI from increasing population. Show us the data on Japan's increasing population.
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lee

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #5 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 8:38pm

AiA wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 7:52pm:

Show us the data on Japan's increasing population.

What are you on? Kyoto petal. Not the whole of Japan? Do you think UHI only affects whole countries? Grin

From the OP -

"This year's peak bloom was reached on March 26 in the ancient capital of Kyoto, the earliest since the Japan Meteorological Agency started collecting the data in 1953 and 10 days ahead of the 30-year average."

"“Evidence, like the timing of cherry blossoms, is one of the historical ‘proxy’ measurements that scientists look at to reconstruct past climate,” said Michael Mann, a professor and climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, who has published numerous studies on temperature changes in recent millennia. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/29/japan-kyoto-cherry-blossoms-re...

Well he can create a hockey stick, but I don't know his credentials on cherry blossoms. Wink

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« Last Edit: Mar 31^st, 2021 at 8:44pm by lee »

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AiA

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #6 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 9:52pm

lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 8:38pm:

AiA wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 7:52pm:

Show us the data on Japan's increasing population.

What are you on? Kyoto petal. Not the whole of Japan? Do you think UHI only affects whole countries? Grin

From the OP -

"This year's peak bloom was reached on March 26 in the ancient capital of Kyoto, the earliest since the Japan Meteorological Agency started collecting the data in 1953 and 10 days ahead of the 30-year average."

"“Evidence, like the timing of cherry blossoms, is one of the historical ‘proxy’ measurements that scientists look at to reconstruct past climate,” said Michael Mann, a professor and climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, who has published numerous studies on temperature changes in recent millennia. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/29/japan-kyoto-cherry-blossoms-re...

Well he can create a hockey stick, but I don't know his credentials on cherry blossoms. Wink

I lived in Japan 15 years. I speak Japanese. My wife is Japanese. I keep up with what is going on there. And I know that the timing of cherry blossoms is "off" in the countryside far away from any large city.

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“Jerry, just remember: It’s not a lie … if you believe it.” George Costanza

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 103772 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Japan's cherry blossoms Reply #7 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 9:55pm AiA wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 9:52pm: I lived in Japan 15 years. I speak Japanese. My wife is Japanese. I keep up with what is going on there. And I know that the timing of cherry blossoms is "off" in the countryside far away from any large city. But is it a one off weather event or something permanent?
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AiA

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #8 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 10:24pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 9:55pm:

AiA wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 9:52pm:

I lived in Japan 15 years. I speak Japanese. My wife is Japanese. I keep up with what is going on there. And I know that the timing of cherry blossoms is "off" in the countryside far away from any large city.

But is it a one off weather event or something permanent?

Japanese say their country is feeling more and more like SE Asia.

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“Jerry, just remember: It’s not a lie … if you believe it.” George Costanza

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Ajax

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #9 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 10:32pm

lee wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 8:38pm:

AiA wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 7:52pm:

Show us the data on Japan's increasing population.

What are you on? Kyoto petal. Not the whole of Japan? Do you think UHI only affects whole countries? Grin

From the OP -

"This year's peak bloom was reached on March 26 in the ancient capital of Kyoto, the earliest since the Japan Meteorological Agency started collecting the data in 1953 and 10 days ahead of the 30-year average."

"“Evidence, like the timing of cherry blossoms, is one of the historical ‘proxy’ measurements that scientists look at to reconstruct past climate,” said Michael Mann, a professor and climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, who has published numerous studies on temperature changes in recent millennia. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/03/29/japan-kyoto-cherry-blossoms-re...

Well he can create a hockey stick, but I don't know his credentials on cherry blossoms. Wink

That says it all Michael Mann who can ever trust that crook ever again with science.

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Ajax

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #10 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 10:37pm

Quote:

Tim Osborn writes to Mike Mann, trying to make sense of some of Mann’s data, which
appear to have simplistic estimates of uncertainties. After an exchange in which Mann
attempts to explain what he has done, he adds:

Tim,

Attached are the calculations requested …
p.s. I know I probably don’t need to mention this, but just to ensure
absolutely clarity on this, I’m providing these for your own personal use,
since you’re a trusted colleague. So please don’t pass this along to others
without checking with me first. This is the sort of “dirty laundry” one
doesn’t want to fall into the hands of those who might potentially try to
distort things…

Page 38

http://stjakobs.dyndns.org/climategate.pdf

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 10975 Australia Gender:	Re: Japan's cherry blossoms Reply #11 - Mar 31^st, 2021 at 10:42pm As for the Japanese culture I have always been drawn to it....
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lee

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Re: Japan's cherry blossoms
Reply #12 - Apr 1^st, 2021 at 12:00pm

AiA wrote on Mar 31^st, 2021 at 9:52pm:

And I know that the timing of cherry blossoms is "off" in the countryside far away from any large city.

And UHI knows its own boundaries? Grin

"In this article we will feature five cherry blossom viewing spots in Kameoka city, only 20 minutes from Kyoto Station by train."

https://matcha-jp.com/en/4187

"The timing of the appearance of the country’s nationally-revered pink blossoms - known as sakura - depends on the weather conditions leading up to spring. Warmer weather has meant that blossoms in the city of Kyoto peaked on 26 March, which is the earliest date recorded since records began in 812 AD in imperial court documents and diaries. This is according to data collected by Yasuyuki Aono at Osaka Prefecture University."

""The trend over the last 200 years towards earlier flowering in the Kyoto cherry blossoms is due to two things," Benjamin Cook, adjunct associate research scientist at the Earth Institute at Columbia University, tells Lonely Planet. "The first is climate change from burning of fossil fuels, which is generally making things warmer pretty much everywhere around the world. The second is an enhanced urban heat island effect associated with increased urbanization in Kyoto, which is also making local temperatures warmer." "

https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/kyoto-cherry-blossoms-early-bloom

Now all you have to do is tease out how much (if any) of each. Wink

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« Last Edit: Apr 1^st, 2021 at 12:06pm by lee »

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Jake Winker Frogen Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1480 Perth WA Gender:	Re: Japan's cherry blossoms Reply #13 - Apr 1^st, 2021 at 1:12pm I love the Cherry Blossoms. A beautiful warning of how brief life is. I see Jacaranda's blooming the same.
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