Australian Politics Forum - Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.

aquascoot

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 35023
Gender: male

Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Aug 24^th, 2021 at 3:37pm

yes, we have some challenging times ahead of us.

delta will have to be confronted before we can kick back and rejoin the rest of the world

In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this. In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70% vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1,457 deaths over six months.

Back to top

IP Logged

Carl D Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9626 Rivervale, Perth Gender:	Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon. Reply #1 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:09pm Not as big a 'marathon' as the one I saw predicted in yesterday's West Australian. 25,000 - 29,000 deaths at 80% would be a disaster of epic proportions. How many at 70%? 50,000? 100,000? More?
Back to top	20210825_145941.jpg (83 KB \| 7 ) Repeat Covid infections exercise our immune system in the same way that repeat concussions exercise our brain IP Logged

aquascoot

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 35023
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #2 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:18pm

Carl D wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:09pm:

Not as big a 'marathon' as the one I saw predicted in yesterday's West Australian.

25,000 - 29,000 deaths at 80% would be a disaster of epic proportions.

How many at 70%? 50,000? 100,000? More? Shocked

wow

thats double sweden!!!

and they are having 1 death a week now and kicking back with a beer.

should have learnt personal responsibility and ran the marathon before it mutated to deadly delta.

when you hide from a threat, it gets stronger and you get weaker

Back to top

IP Logged

buzzanddidj

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 14213
Eganstown, via Daylesford, VIC
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #3 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:30pm

Carl D wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:09pm:

Not as big a 'marathon' as the one I saw predicted in yesterday's West Australian.

25,000 - 29,000 deaths

at 80% would be a disaster of epic proportions.

How many at 70%? 50,000? 100,000? More? Shocked

It certainly puts any death allegedly connected to the so called "pink batts" scheme in perspective

Doesn't it ?

Back to top

'I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.
Your Christians are so unlike your Christ.'

- Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

IP Logged

Carl D

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 9626
Rivervale, Perth
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #4 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:38pm

aquascoot wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:18pm:

thats double sweden!!!

and they are having 1 death a week now and kicking back with a beer.

Ah, Sweden again.

A year and a half after Sweden decided not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors

Aria Bendix
Aug. 21, 2021, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Sweden decided not to implement a full-scale lockdown during the pandemic.
It now has up to 10 times as many COVID-19 deaths per capita as its Nordic neighbors.
Sweden also didn’t fare much better economically, suggesting its gamble didn’t pay off.

Quote:

Sweden has recorded more COVID-19 cases per capita than most countries so far: Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.4 per 100 in Italy. Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people – around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway.

Quote:

If a denser, more populous country like Italy were to adopt Sweden’s strategy, they wrote, it would “likely result in a massacre.”

Do you still believe they did the right thing, aqua?

Back to top

** Repeat Covid infections exercise our immune system in the same way that repeat concussions exercise our brain **

IP Logged

aquascoot

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 35023
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #5 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:40pm

Carl D wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:38pm:

aquascoot wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:18pm:

thats double sweden!!!

and they are having 1 death a week now and kicking back with a beer.

Ah, Sweden again.

A year and a half after Sweden decided not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors

Aria Bendix
Aug. 21, 2021, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Sweden decided not to implement a full-scale lockdown during the pandemic.
It now has up to 10 times as many COVID-19 deaths per capita as its Nordic neighbors.
Sweden also didn’t fare much better economically, suggesting its gamble didn’t pay off.

Quote:

Sweden has recorded more COVID-19 cases per capita than most countries so far: Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.4 per 100 in Italy. Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people – around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway.

Quote:

If a denser, more populous country like Italy were to adopt Sweden’s strategy, they wrote, it would “likely result in a massacre.”

Do you still believe they did the right thing, aqua?

definitely

huge admiration.

and their dethas per head of population were lower then france, italy , uk, spain.

inspirational people

Back to top

IP Logged

Karnal

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 96421

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #6 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 6:11pm

aquascoot wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:18pm:

Carl D wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:09pm:

Not as big a 'marathon' as the one I saw predicted in yesterday's West Australian.

25,000 - 29,000 deaths at 80% would be a disaster of epic proportions.

How many at 70%? 50,000? 100,000? More? Shocked

wow

thats double sweden!!!

and they are having 1 death a week now and kicking back with a beer.

should have learnt personal responsibility and ran the marathon before it mutated to deadly delta.

when you hide from a threat, it gets stronger and you get weaker

Exactly. The government has given everybody the chance to take out a gym membership and buy Zuby's book on creating their best body yet.

Seniors and the disabled have had a good year to get to work. If they cant get their acts together by now, Scomo needs to dish out some strong advice.

Forget Sweden, Scomo should be following the example of India.

Read your Paretto, leftards.

Back to top

images_-_2021-08-25T181055_592.jpeg (8 KB | 13 )

IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30096
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #7 - Aug 25^th, 2021 at 6:55pm

Carl D wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:09pm:

Not as big a 'marathon' as the one I saw predicted in yesterday's West Australian.

25,000 - 29,000 deaths at 80% would be a disaster of epic proportions.

How many at 70%? 50,000? 100,000? More? Shocked

so what happened to herd immunity at 80% vaxed ?? The vax doesn't provide immunity like a vaccine is supposed to Sad

Back to top

In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

IP Logged

SadKangaroo

Gold Member

Offline

#FightStupid

Posts: 17743
Mianjin (Brisbane)

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #8 - Aug 26^th, 2021 at 7:47am

aquascoot wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:40pm:

Carl D wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:38pm:

aquascoot wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 5:18pm:

thats double sweden!!!

and they are having 1 death a week now and kicking back with a beer.

Ah, Sweden again.

A year and a half after Sweden decided not to lock down, its COVID-19 death rate is up to 10 times higher than its neighbors

Aria Bendix
Aug. 21, 2021, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Sweden decided not to implement a full-scale lockdown during the pandemic.
It now has up to 10 times as many COVID-19 deaths per capita as its Nordic neighbors.
Sweden also didn’t fare much better economically, suggesting its gamble didn’t pay off.

Quote:

Sweden has recorded more COVID-19 cases per capita than most countries so far: Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.4 per 100 in Italy. Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people – around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway.

Quote:

If a denser, more populous country like Italy were to adopt Sweden’s strategy, they wrote, it would “likely result in a massacre.”

Do you still believe they did the right thing, aqua?

definitely

huge admiration.

and their dethas per head of population were lower then france, italy , uk, spain.

inspirational people

Do you care that their Government and Monarchy say they got it wrong?

Or are you happy with your conclusion shopping reinforcing your beliefs no matter how dubious or wrong it is?

Back to top

IP Logged

greggerypeccary

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 139199
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #9 - Aug 26^th, 2021 at 8:34am

aquascoot wrote on Aug 24^th, 2021 at 3:37pm:

yes, we have some challenging times ahead of us.

delta will have to be confronted before we can kick back and rejoin the rest of the world

In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this.

Really?

My mother was rushed to hospital yesterday in an ambulance and spent 4 and a half hours laying on a gurney in a corridor before anybody even realised she was there.

At another Perth hospital, at the same time, a friend's daughter waited 8 hours to receive attention and when a doctor finally saw her he told her to go home as they were too busy.

And we don't have COVID here at the moment.

Imagine what it will be like once Delta starts her WA tour.

Back to top

IP Logged

Carl D

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 9626
Rivervale, Perth
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #10 - Aug 26^th, 2021 at 9:25am

aquascoot wrote on Aug 24^th, 2021 at 3:37pm:

but our health system can cope with this.

NSW hospitals warning: nurses and staff ‘flat out’ and ‘exhausted’ as Covid numbers soar

Reports of live transplants cancelled indefinitely at some hospitals due to staffing shortages

Quote:

The nurses union has rubbished New South Wales health minister Brad Hazzard’s claims that Sydney’s hospitals are coping with the city’s Covid outbreak, warning multiple facilities are under “enormous pressure” and have “very little capacity” in their emergency departments.

NSW set a new daily record on Wednesday with 919 local Covid cases. There were 645 Covid patients in hospital, with 113 people in intensive care, but transmission and exposure at multiple hospitals has sidelined significant numbers of health staff due to isolation requirements.

Despite assurances from Hazzard that hospitals in Sydney were “coping”, Guardian Australia has been contacted by people who had kidney transplants and heart angioplasties booked in at public hospitals, but had their operations cancelled and not rescheduled due to staffing shortages and Covid exposure within the hospital system.

So, aqua, what happens when in addition to being understaffed, the doctors, nurses and staff the hospitals do have at the moment are suddenly unable to work due to catching Covid as we've seen happen in other parts of the world?

Hope your mother and your friend's daughter are doing OK, Greg. I have to take my 91 year old aunt to her GP after lunch today for her second Covid vaccination, I'm relieved that she is able to get it before a major Delta outbreak happens here. Fingers crossed I'll be able to get my second one on September 13th before it happens.

Back to top

** Repeat Covid infections exercise our immune system in the same way that repeat concussions exercise our brain **

IP Logged

Carl D

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 9626
Rivervale, Perth
Gender: male

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #11 - Aug 26^th, 2021 at 9:34am

Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 25^th, 2021 at 6:55pm:

so what happened to herd immunity at 80% vaxed ?? The vax doesn't provide immunity like a vaccine is supposed to Sad

Herd immunity likely to be ‘made harder’ by variants

06 Jul 2021

Quote:

Research carried out at James Cook University in Queensland suggests around 85% of Australia’s population will need to be vaccinated for herd immunity to occur.

In the meantime, the #1 reason we need to get vaccinated is to avoid serious illness or death and to prevent Australia's hospitals from being overwhelmed like NSW's is getting close to being.

Of course, the antivaxxer 'brigade' are also making the above 'goals' difficult to achieve as quickly as possible.

Back to top

** Repeat Covid infections exercise our immune system in the same way that repeat concussions exercise our brain **

IP Logged

Karnal

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 96421

Re: Doherty Institute Predicts marathon.
Reply #12 - Aug 26^th, 2021 at 10:52am

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 26^th, 2021 at 8:34am:

aquascoot wrote on Aug 24^th, 2021 at 3:37pm:

yes, we have some challenging times ahead of us.

delta will have to be confronted before we can kick back and rejoin the rest of the world

In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this.

Really?

My mother was rushed to hospital yesterday in an ambulance and spent 4 and a half hours laying on a gurney in a corridor before anybody even realised she was there.

At another Perth hospital, at the same time, a friend's daughter waited 8 hours to receive attention and when a doctor finally saw her he told her to go home as they were too busy.

And we don't have COVID here at the moment.

Imagine what it will be like once Delta starts her WA tour.

Excuse I, Greggery, your mother has had a good year to put Zuby's advice into practice. If she refuses to take personal responsibility, that's her fault.

Reprehensible.

Back to top

IP Logged