My guess is that Ukraine will turn into proxy theatres like Korea, Vietnam, and more recently Syria.   I do not think the US, UK or EU will directly declare war on Russia.   I still don’t think 200000 Russian troops is will be able to overtake the entire Ukraine, with 400000 troops and 44 million citizens.  The math just don’t add up.   At the best, I think this will settle into a prolonged but potentially very bloody war.  And the final settlement point would be similar to Korea, where Ukraine gets broken into a ‘West’ and a ‘East’ part. 

I believe, during this time, the Chinese will stay back, and hope the war will drag both Russia and the West in, and keep them there as long as possible.  That means, diplomatically keeping the conflict from reaching full war status, at the same time, not letting it settle. 

When the sanction bites, the Russian will need supplies - e.g. everyday goods, medical supplies, and this China will happily supply at a cost.  And on the other hand, it will continue to do roaring trades with major US companies.   And of course, us Aussies will continue to supply the raw material to China to enable all of that. 

The longer this conflict drags on, the weaker both the West and the Russians will be.   In which case, the Chinese can probably stand back, and if it plays the cards right, it can potentially emerge as the global power soon. 

The world is resolved to ensure the CCP's China containment.

The CCP will need to collapse before China will be allowed to ascend.

But the Chinese need not fear invasion. China is a culturally collapsed society for which no foreign power has the cure nor the will nor capacity to remedy that except the Taiwanese.

If the Taiwanese were to oversee the normalisation and rejuvenation of Chinese society after the CCP's collapse, the Chinese would have its century. Not before.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 25^th, 2022 at 8:31am:



You are utterly retarded.

tickleandrose wrote on Feb 25^th, 2022 at 8:15am:

The world is resolved to ensure the CCP's China containment.

The CCP will need to collapse before China will be allowed to ascend.

But the Chinese need not fear invasion. China is a culturally collapsed society for which no foreign power has the cure nor the will nor capacity to remedy except the Taiwanese.

If the Taiwanese were to oversee the normalisation and rejuvenation of Chinese society after the CCP's collapse, the Chinese would have its century. Not before.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 25^th, 2022 at 8:31am:


I wish I share your optimism. But I am a realist, and I just dont see this happening.  People had being talking about collapse of China for many decades.  But, it is getting stronger and stronger.   Until a point now, AUKUS need to be formed to counter its increasing influence and projection of power.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 25^th, 2022 at 8:33am:



I can't quite remember. Are you the F A T kangaroo rooter who talks out of both sides his wet liberal pseudo-intellectual asshole?

Naw, just drop a nuke or two.

The world is over populated and its needs a reset. Kill off about 96% of life and see what happens.

I myself am a little disappointed that a nuke hasn't already been fired