Australian Politics Forum - Russia will not invade Ukraine

MeisterEckhart

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #30 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:13pm

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:06pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Russia and Germany (and other European powers) have historically used, what is now, eastern Europe as a buffer zone.

Putin wants to re-establish that order.

I bet he does!

Now let ME explain to you WHY!

And it's not just about buffer zoning either.

Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury.

Coal takes a leading place in the fuel and energy balance of Ukraine. In the structure of hydrocarbon fossil resources of Ukraine, coal is about 95%, oil and gas - 2.5% each. The total coal reserves of Ukraine to a depth of 1,500 meters amount to about 117 billion tons.

Neither here nor there. The cost of war far exceeds any gains in mineral resources, the extraction of which would be dogged by guerilla warfare.

If that's all he wanted, there are easier ways of getting it.

Russia has historically had reason to fear western Europe, not least because of Napoleon and Hitler.

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Lisa Jones

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #31 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:14pm

Jasin wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Like Australia wouldn't help Timor until it got a slice of the Diamond action.
The pressure is on Ukraine to join NATO (rest of Europe) or submit again to Russian retro.

1. The US wants Ukraine.

2. Russia wants Ukraine.

3. Ukraine isn't allowed to be independent.

There's trillions of dollars worth of minerals and resources at stake here. IF there's a war then this is what it's going to really be about.

FTM

Follow
The
Money

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If I let myself be bought then I am no longer free.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #32 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:15pm

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:14pm:

Jasin wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Like Australia wouldn't help Timor until it got a slice of the Diamond action.
The pressure is on Ukraine to join NATO (rest of Europe) or submit again to Russian retro.

1. The US wants Ukraine.

2. Russia wants Ukraine.

3. Ukraine isn't allowed to be independent.

There's trillions of dollars worth of minerals and resources at stake here. IF there's a war then this is what it's going to really be about.

FTM

Follow
The
Money

The US has no interest in Ukraine, except what a successful Russian invasion would say of the NATO alliance and the US leadership of it..

Follow the cards in a poker game.

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Lisa Jones

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #33 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:18pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:13pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:06pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Russia and Germany (and other European powers) have historically used, what is now, eastern Europe as a buffer zone.

Putin wants to re-establish that order.

I bet he does!

Now let ME explain to you WHY!

And it's not just about buffer zoning either.

Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury.

Coal takes a leading place in the fuel and energy balance of Ukraine. In the structure of hydrocarbon fossil resources of Ukraine, coal is about 95%, oil and gas - 2.5% each. The total coal reserves of Ukraine to a depth of 1,500 meters amount to about 117 billion tons.

Neither here nor there. The cost of war far exceeds any gains in mineral resources, the extraction of which would be dogged by guerilla warfare.

If that's all he wanted, there are easier ways of getting it.

Russia has historically had reason to fear western Europe, not least because of Napoleon and Hitler.

Wait a moment.

You do realise that when we talk about Russians we are talking Russians vs White Russians (Ukrainians who were pro Tsar and Anti Communist Revolution) yes?

Russians have historically hated the White Russians. And they were used/abused as a result. Anything they produced was essentially confiscated by the State.

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If I let myself be bought then I am no longer free.

HYPATIA - Greek philosopher, mathematician and astronomer (370 - 415)

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Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 47265 Gender:	Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine Reply #34 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:20pm China: keeping its Russian enemy closer.
Back to top	AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY. IP Logged

MeisterEckhart Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11235 Gender:	Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine Reply #35 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:25pm Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:18pm: Wait a moment. You do realise that when we talk about Russians we are talking Russians vs White Russians (Ukrainians who were pro Tsar and Anti Communist Revolution) yes? What Putin plays up: 'We're all brother and sisters'. Ukrainians don't think so.
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Lisa Jones

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #36 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:29pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:15pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:14pm:

Jasin wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Like Australia wouldn't help Timor until it got a slice of the Diamond action.
The pressure is on Ukraine to join NATO (rest of Europe) or submit again to Russian retro.

1. The US wants Ukraine.

2. Russia wants Ukraine.

3. Ukraine isn't allowed to be independent.

There's trillions of dollars worth of minerals and resources at stake here. IF there's a war then this is what it's going to really be about.

FTM

Follow
The
Money

The US has no interest in Ukraine, except what a successful Russian invasion would say of the NATO alliance and the US leadership of it..

Follow the cards in a poker game.

The US needs those minerals. Oil ores etc.

So does Russia.

The 3rd player in this isn't NATO ...it's CHINA.

China would love nothing more than for the US and Russia to go to war. Why? All China will need to do is sit back and watch them destroy each other after which China will walk in and take over whatever is left.

Both the US and Russia know this.

Hence the current war of words.

The risk? We've got : Biden vs Putin are stating words at each other.

It would have been better if we had : Trump vs Putin - because these 2 got on better.

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If I let myself be bought then I am no longer free.

HYPATIA - Greek philosopher, mathematician and astronomer (370 - 415)

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #37 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:31pm

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:29pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:15pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:14pm:

Jasin wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Like Australia wouldn't help Timor until it got a slice of the Diamond action.
The pressure is on Ukraine to join NATO (rest of Europe) or submit again to Russian retro.

1. The US wants Ukraine.

2. Russia wants Ukraine.

3. Ukraine isn't allowed to be independent.

There's trillions of dollars worth of minerals and resources at stake here. IF there's a war then this is what it's going to really be about.

FTM

Follow
The
Money

The US has no interest in Ukraine, except what a successful Russian invasion would say of the NATO alliance and the US leadership of it..

Follow the cards in a poker game.

The US needs those minerals. Oil ores etc.

So does Russia.

The 3rd player in this isn't NATO ...it's CHINA.

China would love nothing more than for the US and Russia to go to war. Why? All China will need to do is sit back and watch them destroy each other after which China will walk in and take over whatever is left.

Both the US and Russia know this.

Hence the current war of words.

The risk? We've got : Biden vs Putin are stating words at each other.

It would have been better if we had : Trump vs Putin - because these 2 got on better.

Do you play poker?

None of them wants a war; it's about how much you can get by bluff - without showing your hand.

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Jasin

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #38 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:31pm

When Putin fails to desperately re-establish something akin to the glory days of the USSR and re-take nations such as Kazakhstan, Ukraine, etc.
You watch him suddenly 'dissapear' like Rasputin did.
Putin will fail - he's just a man... a dictator.
He is not an entire ideology of Communism of cultural grand design.

...when Russia falls.

Australia will be forced to 'rise' as a new Super Power
(and that's when it will best to flee to NZ Wink

)

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

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Lisa Jones

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #39 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:33pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:25pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:18pm:

Wait a moment.

You do realise that when we talk about Russians we are talking Russians vs White Russians (Ukrainians who were pro Tsar and Anti Communist Revolution) yes?

What Putin plays up: 'We're all brother and sisters'.

Ukrainians don't think so.

Exactly.

Read this everyone. NB It's not an easy read 😩

Beginning in the 18th century, Ukrainian territories were divided between the Austrian and Russian Empires. In the aftermath of World War I and the overthrow of the Russian monarchy in February 1917, Ukraine set up a provisional government, declaring itself the independent Ukrainian People's Republic in January 1918. The Ukrainian People's Republic fought the Bolshevik Red Army for three years (1918-1921) but lost its fight for independence.

The bulk of Ukrainian territory was forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union, or USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), and by 1922 Ukraine became the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). Then the USSR sanctioned the requisition of all surplus agricultural products from the rural population, resulting in economic collapse.

In 1932 and 1933, millions of Ukrainians were killed in the Holodomor, a man-made famine engineered by the Soviet government of Joseph Stalin. The primary victims of the Holodomor (literally "death inflicted by starvation") were rural farmers and villagers, who made up roughly 80 percent of Ukraine's population in the 1930s. While it is impossible to determine the precise number of victims of the Ukrainian genocide, most estimates by scholars range from roughly 3.5 million to 7 million (with some estimates going higher). The most detailed demographic studies estimate the death toll at 3.9 million. Historians agree that, as with other genocides, the precise number will never be known.

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If I let myself be bought then I am no longer free.

HYPATIA - Greek philosopher, mathematician and astronomer (370 - 415)

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #40 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:37pm

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:33pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:25pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:18pm:

Wait a moment.

You do realise that when we talk about Russians we are talking Russians vs White Russians (Ukrainians who were pro Tsar and Anti Communist Revolution) yes?

What Putin plays up: 'We're all brother and sisters'.

Ukrainians don't think so.

Exactly.

Read this everyone. NB It's not an easy read 😩

Beginning in the 18th century, Ukrainian territories were divided between the Austrian and Russian Empires. In the aftermath of World War I and the overthrow of the Russian monarchy in February 1917, Ukraine set up a provisional government, declaring itself the independent Ukrainian People's Republic in January 1918. The Ukrainian People's Republic fought the Bolshevik Red Army for three years (1918-1921) but lost its fight for independence.

The bulk of Ukrainian territory was forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union, or USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), and by 1922 Ukraine became the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). Then the USSR sanctioned the requisition of all surplus agricultural products from the rural population, resulting in economic collapse.

In 1932 and 1933, millions of Ukrainians were killed in the Holodomor, a man-made famine engineered by the Soviet government of Joseph Stalin. The primary victims of the Holodomor (literally "death inflicted by starvation") were rural farmers and villagers, who made up roughly 80 percent of Ukraine's population in the 1930s. While it is impossible to determine the precise number of victims of the Ukrainian genocide, most estimates by scholars range from roughly 3.5 million to 7 million (with some estimates going higher). The most detailed demographic studies estimate the death toll at 3.9 million. Historians agree that, as with other genocides, the precise number will never be known.

So why do Ukrainians want independence and membership in NATO, you think?

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Lisa Jones

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #41 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:42pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:31pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:29pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:15pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:14pm:

Jasin wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:09pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:03pm:

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Ukraine may have something of importance which Russia and the US need? I'm thinking the usual stuff Eg minerals/oil/geographic strategic position/base.

That could explain the real agenda behind the US vs Russia tug of war.

IF that's the case then war could very well be on the agenda.

Like Australia wouldn't help Timor until it got a slice of the Diamond action.
The pressure is on Ukraine to join NATO (rest of Europe) or submit again to Russian retro.

1. The US wants Ukraine.

2. Russia wants Ukraine.

3. Ukraine isn't allowed to be independent.

There's trillions of dollars worth of minerals and resources at stake here. IF there's a war then this is what it's going to really be about.

FTM

Follow
The
Money

The US has no interest in Ukraine, except what a successful Russian invasion would say of the NATO alliance and the US leadership of it..

Follow the cards in a poker game.

The US needs those minerals. Oil ores etc.

So does Russia.

The 3rd player in this isn't NATO ...it's CHINA.

China would love nothing more than for the US and Russia to go to war. Why? All China will need to do is sit back and watch them destroy each other after which China will walk in and take over whatever is left.

Both the US and Russia know this.

Hence the current war of words.

The risk? We've got : Biden vs Putin are stating words at each other.

It would have been better if we had : Trump vs Putin - because these 2 got on better.

Do you play poker?

None of them wants a war; it's about how much you can get by bluff - without showing your hand.

I have never played poker but I do play UNO with my family and the bluffing in that game is enough of a clue to understand exactly what you're saying. You appear to be saying something along the way and your face appears to be saying something along the way and both can be used to trick your opponent into making a false move with their cards. Essentially giving you an advantage.

It's really a type of psychological warfare. Chess is another type of game. Poker of course etc

(I can't wait for someone on OzPol to start a topic on gaming and how it relates to war : absolutely fascinating stuff)

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If I let myself be bought then I am no longer free.

HYPATIA - Greek philosopher, mathematician and astronomer (370 - 415)

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Jasin

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #42 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:44pm

And Trump said to Xi during his visit in Beijing
"I am not your enemy."
Xi turned to look at Putin, sulking in the corner because Xi put on the most lavish grand welcome for Trump than for any other President, and said in a whisper to himself "Then who is?" as he continued to stare at Putin - the last of the Russo-Soviet threat that once brought China to its knees to serve the Communist path.

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

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Jasin

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #43 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:56pm

The Western European Celtics fled Europe to North America because they believed they were superior.
The Eastern European Slavs were kicked out like convicts to Sahul-Australia because they were inferior.
The Southern European Latins said from their idyllic Oceanic islands "That history was a lie and they were never in Europe to begin with."
The Northern European Skandis were left to clean up the mess in Europe from a party they were never invited to in the first place.

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

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Lisa Jones

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Posts: 39047
Sydney
Gender: female

Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #44 - Feb 14^th, 2022 at 11:00pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:37pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:33pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:25pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Feb 14^th, 2022 at 10:18pm:

Wait a moment.

You do realise that when we talk about Russians we are talking Russians vs White Russians (Ukrainians who were pro Tsar and Anti Communist Revolution) yes?

What Putin plays up: 'We're all brother and sisters'.

Ukrainians don't think so.

Exactly.

Read this everyone. NB It's not an easy read 😩

Beginning in the 18th century, Ukrainian territories were divided between the Austrian and Russian Empires. In the aftermath of World War I and the overthrow of the Russian monarchy in February 1917, Ukraine set up a provisional government, declaring itself the independent Ukrainian People's Republic in January 1918. The Ukrainian People's Republic fought the Bolshevik Red Army for three years (1918-1921) but lost its fight for independence.

The bulk of Ukrainian territory was forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union, or USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), and by 1922 Ukraine became the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). Then the USSR sanctioned the requisition of all surplus agricultural products from the rural population, resulting in economic collapse.

In 1932 and 1933, millions of Ukrainians were killed in the Holodomor, a man-made famine engineered by the Soviet government of Joseph Stalin. The primary victims of the Holodomor (literally "death inflicted by starvation") were rural farmers and villagers, who made up roughly 80 percent of Ukraine's population in the 1930s. While it is impossible to determine the precise number of victims of the Ukrainian genocide, most estimates by scholars range from roughly 3.5 million to 7 million (with some estimates going higher). The most detailed demographic studies estimate the death toll at 3.9 million. Historians agree that, as with other genocides, the precise number will never be known.

So why do Ukrainians want independence and membership in NATO, you think?

1. Ukraine wants to be left alone. And truly be independent. They've gone through Hell and back and if you study their history they were once a fully independent nation before the Russians came through and totally devastated their land and their people.

2. Ukraine needs protection from Russia.

3. NATO is going to offer them
that protection. (It's really the US of course).

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If I let myself be bought then I am no longer free.

HYPATIA - Greek philosopher, mathematician and astronomer (370 - 415)

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