Australian Politics Forum - Russia will not invade Ukraine

Karnal

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #90 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:26pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:09pm:

Frank wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 1:27pm:

Back in 2000, Putin repeatedly petitioned for Russia to be admitted to Nato, according to private conversations he had with the former head of the alliance and ex-Labour minister George Robertson, and again in interviews with the American filmmaker Oliver Stone. Putin was told that his country should ‘apply’ to join — there’s that contempt again — and he replied with the deliciously Putinesque response: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’

He was not the first Russian leader to have made such overtures. Boris Yeltsin proposed Russian membership in 1991 and the year before Mikhail Gorbachev had ventured the possibility to the then US Secretary of State, James Baker, only to be told that it was merely a ‘dream’. Rather than grasp an opportunity which 30 years later would be to our enormous advantage in dealing with China and radical Islam, the suggestion was dismissed out of hand.

Instead, western countries sent to Moscow scores of free-market ‘consultants’ to oversee the privatisation and massed asset stripping of the formerly state-controlled Soviet industries which led directly to two catastrophic depressions, enormous unemployment and the creation of a semi-criminal or simply criminal oligarchic elite. No wonder that by the end of the 1990s the notion of ‘western democracy’ was viewed by the general population with scorn verging on loathing: a superpower reduced to impotence and penury. It is not difficult to see how the appetite for Vladimir Putin was fostered.

Remarkably, even the Soviet Union, during the most fraught early moments of the Cold War, had asked to be allowed to join Nato. A year after the death of Stalin and a few months after the sidelining of Malenkov, the USSR’s minister for foreign affairs, Vyacheslav Molotov, proposed that his country join an alliance for the collective security of Europe on the grounds that it would be of ‘cardinal importance for the promotion of universal peace’. Molotov’s biographer, Geoffrey Roberts, observed: ‘In May 1954 the western powers rejected the Soviet proposal to join Nato on grounds that the USSR’s membership of the organisation would be incompatible with its democratic and defensive aims. However, Moscow’s extensive and intensive campaign for European collective security continued until the Geneva Foreign Ministers Conference of October-November 1955.’ There was quite possibly geopolitical mischief in Molotov’s design, but the proposal was nonetheless meant in earnest and had the full backing of the premier, Nikita Khrushchev.

So at least four Russian leaders have implored the West to let them into this gilded club and each time they were contemptuously brushed off. But then this has been the history of Russia’s relations with the West. At various times throughout the past 800 years Russia has attempted to ingratiate itself with the West, most notably of course during the reign of Peter the Great, who even forced courtiers to shave off their Russian beards, wear European-style clothing and speak French in the hope that this might impress upon visiting westerners how civilised they were. But on every occasion the Russians have tried this cosying up they have been met with either pronounced sniggering or malevolent opportunism from the rest of Europe.

What usually follows is a period of revanchism, in which subsequent leaders retreat into the comparative comfort of Russia’s roots in Asia, its Slavicness, its difference to the West, out of dismay or pique. St Petersburg itself was renamed Petrograd in 1914 because the old name sounded too western and had the whiff of Germany about it. Vladimir Putin comes from the city and however autocratic and authoritarian his regime, he is — or was — someone who looked to the West: hence that tentative approach to joining Nato. What seems to be happening now is simply what has happened so many times before: Putin has given up the occidental ghost. He is looking east, to China, to ever greater autocracy and a cultural programme which once again sets Russia ideologically at odds with western Europe. We have had many chances to neutralise Russia’s potential threat. They have all been passed up.
Rod Liddle
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-blew-our-chance-to-befriend-putin

Yes, if people spend 5 minutes to consider Russias point of view, they would be showing some consideration.

Like Putin or not, you really should listen to him.
He is one of the World Leaders and has been for decades

Not anymore, he's not. Putin gave up his victim status when he started picking on the weak - Georgia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Bulgaria, Armenia, Slovenia, the Ukraine, the list goes on and on. He's even tried for a toehold in Venezuela.

Putin is a complete and utter cunt. If he was so concerned with the plight of ordinary Russians, he wouldn't be building himself billion dollar palaces with gold toilet brushes. Forget world leaders, Putin is widely believed to be the richest person in the world, all in black money - the skim from Russian resources.

No one should listen to Putin for the simple reason that you can't trust a thing he says. If that happens in the West, we can just throw them out, like America's recent experience. They can't do that in Russia because of one man and one man only: Putin.

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thegreatdivide Gold Member Offline Australian Politics<br /> Posts: 12461 Gender:	Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine Reply #91 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:29pm Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 3:37pm: Putin tried to join NATO? After he's spent the past decade launching cyber and military attacks against any Eastern European country who even talks to NATO? No.... in 1990, soon after democracy was restored in Russia.
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #92 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:35pm

Frank wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 1:27pm:

Back in 2000, Putin repeatedly petitioned for Russia to be admitted to Nato, according to private conversations he had with the former head of the alliance and ex-Labour minister George Robertson, and again in interviews with the American filmmaker Oliver Stone. Putin was told that his country should ‘apply’ to join — there’s that contempt again — and he replied with the deliciously Putinesque response: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’

He was not the first Russian leader to have made such overtures. Boris Yeltsin proposed Russian membership in 1991 and the year before Mikhail Gorbachev had ventured the possibility to the then US Secretary of State, James Baker, only to be told that it was merely a ‘dream’. Rather than grasp an opportunity which 30 years later would be to our enormous advantage in dealing with China and radical Islam, the suggestion was dismissed out of hand.

Instead, western countries sent to Moscow scores of free-market ‘consultants’ to oversee the privatisation and massed asset stripping of the formerly state-controlled Soviet industries which led directly to two catastrophic depressions, enormous unemployment and the creation of a semi-criminal or simply criminal oligarchic elite. No wonder that by the end of the 1990s the notion of ‘western democracy’ was viewed by the general population with scorn verging on loathing: a superpower reduced to impotence and penury. It is not difficult to see how the appetite for Vladimir Putin was fostered.

Remarkably, even the Soviet Union, during the most fraught early moments of the Cold War, had asked to be allowed to join Nato. A year after the death of Stalin and a few months after the sidelining of Malenkov, the USSR’s minister for foreign affairs, Vyacheslav Molotov, proposed that his country join an alliance for the collective security of Europe on the grounds that it would be of ‘cardinal importance for the promotion of universal peace’. Molotov’s biographer, Geoffrey Roberts, observed: ‘In May 1954 the western powers rejected the Soviet proposal to join Nato on grounds that the USSR’s membership of the organisation would be incompatible with its democratic and defensive aims. However, Moscow’s extensive and intensive campaign for European collective security continued until the Geneva Foreign Ministers Conference of October-November 1955.’ There was quite possibly geopolitical mischief in Molotov’s design, but the proposal was nonetheless meant in earnest and had the full backing of the premier, Nikita Khrushchev.

So at least four Russian leaders have implored the West to let them into this gilded club and each time they were contemptuously brushed off. But then this has been the history of Russia’s relations with the West. At various times throughout the past 800 years Russia has attempted to ingratiate itself with the West, most notably of course during the reign of Peter the Great, who even forced courtiers to shave off their Russian beards, wear European-style clothing and speak French in the hope that this might impress upon visiting westerners how civilised they were. But on every occasion the Russians have tried this cosying up they have been met with either pronounced sniggering or malevolent opportunism from the rest of Europe.

What usually follows is a period of revanchism, in which subsequent leaders retreat into the comparative comfort of Russia’s roots in Asia, its Slavicness, its difference to the West, out of dismay or pique. St Petersburg itself was renamed Petrograd in 1914 because the old name sounded too western and had the whiff of Germany about it. Vladimir Putin comes from the city and however autocratic and authoritarian his regime, he is — or was — someone who looked to the West: hence that tentative approach to joining Nato. What seems to be happening now is simply what has happened so many times before: Putin has given up the occidental ghost. He is looking east, to China, to ever greater autocracy and a cultural programme which once again sets Russia ideologically at odds with western Europe. We have had many chances to neutralise Russia’s potential threat. They have all been passed up.
Rod Liddle
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-blew-our-chance-to-befriend-putin

Wow..a sensible and insightful article from your professor Liddle.

But Putin of course didn't understand the extent of the depravity of the US's global hegemony ambitions. No room for another prosperous, equally well-armed nuclear nation, in that ambition.

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« Last Edit: Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:01pm by thegreatdivide »

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Karnal

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #93 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:56pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:29pm:

Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 3:37pm:

Putin tried to join NATO? After he's spent the past decade launching cyber and military attacks against any Eastern European country who even talks to NATO?

No.... in 1990, soon after democracy was restored in Russia.

Putin put an end to that when he was installed PM and ran for Prez. He was only put in to pardon Yeltsin.

Putin spent the rest of that decade organising false flag bomb attacks on his own civilians and killing Chechens. There was a brief moment of self-serving War On Terror lip-service to the US in 2001, and its been downhill ever since.

Russia has long paid back its IMF loans. The threat to Russia now is internal. Russia stagnates economically because of rampant corruption - the skim.

Putin can't change course because to cede any power whatsoever would see him behind bars, or worse. Putin has to stay in the game to save his own skin - the fate articulated by Saddam during his trial, the same fate felt by Mubarrak and Gaddafi. Apparently Putin played a tape of Gaddafi's killing over and over again. The Arab Spring taught Putin a lesson he would never forget. He had a choice: be nice, reform and go the way of the West, or become the meanest, hardest, richest cunt in the world.

You know which way he went, everybody knows. But Putin was rotten from the beginning, as as the old Russian saying about rotting fish heads goes.

Everybody knows.

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Bobby.

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #94 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:16pm

Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:56pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:29pm:

Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 3:37pm:

Putin tried to join NATO? After he's spent the past decade launching cyber and military attacks against any Eastern European country who even talks to NATO?

No.... in 1990, soon after democracy was restored in Russia.

Putin put an end to that when he was installed PM and ran for Prez. He was only put in to pardon Yeltsin.

Putin spent the rest of that decade organising false flag bomb attacks on his own civilians and killing Chechens. There was a brief moment of self-serving War On Terror lip-service to the US in 2001, and its been downhill ever since.

Russia has long paid back its IMF loans. The threat to Russia now is internal. Russia stagnates economically because of rampant corruption - the skim.

Putin can't change course because to cede any power whatsoever would see him behind bars, or worse. Putin has to stay in the game to save his own skin - the fate articulated by Saddam during his trial, the same fate felt by Mubarrak and Gaddafi. Apparently Putin played a tape of Gaddafi's killing over and over again. The Arab Spring taught Putin a lesson he would never forget. He had a choice: be nice, reform and go the way of the West, or become the meanest, hardest, richest cunt in the world.

You know which way he went, everybody knows. But Putin was rotten from the beginning, as as the old Russian saying about rotting fish heads goes.

Everybody knows.

But those sanctions will bite hard.
Russia will run out of money and then what happens?
He might decide to invade all the previous Soviet countries -
that's what Hitler did too when he ran out of money -
he plundered other countries.

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Karnal

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #95 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:34pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:35pm:

Frank wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 1:27pm:

Back in 2000, Putin repeatedly petitioned for Russia to be admitted to Nato, according to private conversations he had with the former head of the alliance and ex-Labour minister George Robertson, and again in interviews with the American filmmaker Oliver Stone. Putin was told that his country should ‘apply’ to join — there’s that contempt again — and he replied with the deliciously Putinesque response: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’

He was not the first Russian leader to have made such overtures. Boris Yeltsin proposed Russian membership in 1991 and the year before Mikhail Gorbachev had ventured the possibility to the then US Secretary of State, James Baker, only to be told that it was merely a ‘dream’. Rather than grasp an opportunity which 30 years later would be to our enormous advantage in dealing with China and radical Islam, the suggestion was dismissed out of hand.

Instead, western countries sent to Moscow scores of free-market ‘consultants’ to oversee the privatisation and massed asset stripping of the formerly state-controlled Soviet industries which led directly to two catastrophic depressions, enormous unemployment and the creation of a semi-criminal or simply criminal oligarchic elite. No wonder that by the end of the 1990s the notion of ‘western democracy’ was viewed by the general population with scorn verging on loathing: a superpower reduced to impotence and penury. It is not difficult to see how the appetite for Vladimir Putin was fostered.

Remarkably, even the Soviet Union, during the most fraught early moments of the Cold War, had asked to be allowed to join Nato. A year after the death of Stalin and a few months after the sidelining of Malenkov, the USSR’s minister for foreign affairs, Vyacheslav Molotov, proposed that his country join an alliance for the collective security of Europe on the grounds that it would be of ‘cardinal importance for the promotion of universal peace’. Molotov’s biographer, Geoffrey Roberts, observed: ‘In May 1954 the western powers rejected the Soviet proposal to join Nato on grounds that the USSR’s membership of the organisation would be incompatible with its democratic and
So at least four Russian leaders have implored the West to let them into this gilded club and each time they were contemptuously brushed off. But then this has been the history of Russia’s relations with the West. At various times throughout the past 800 years Russia has attempted to ingratiate itself with the West, most notably of course during the reign of Peter the Great, who even forced courtiers to shave off their Russian beards, wear European-style clothing and speak French in the hope that this might impress upon visiting westerners how civilised they were. But on every occasion the Russians have tried this cosying up they have been met with either pronounced sniggering or malevolent opportunism from the rest of Europe.

What usually follows is a period of revanchism, in which subsequent leaders retreat into the comparative comfort of Russia’s roots in Asia, its Slavicness, its difference to the West, out of dismay or pique. St Petersburg itself was renamed Petrograd in 1914 because the old name sounded too western and had the whiff of Germany about it. Vladimir Putin comes from the city and however autocratic and authoritarian his regime, he is — or was chances to neutralise Russia’s potential threat. They have all been passed up.
Rod Liddle
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/we-blew-our-chance-to-befriend-putin

Wow..a sensible and insightful article from your professor Liddle.

But Putin of course didn't understand the depravity of the US's global hegemony ambitions. No room for another prosperous, equally well-armed nuclear nation, in that ambition.

The depravity of Uncle's ambition is shown most clearly in Afghanistan. Unlike Putin, the US doesn't have the ambition to be an empire. It has never wanted this.

In Syria, in the Ukraine, even in Venezuela - Putin has shown that he does.

But do you know? The world is now nostalgic for the kind of global hegemony the US offers. Not the neocon military hubris of Bush/Rumsfeld or the Washington Consensus corporate theism of Bush Snr/Clinton, but the Wilsonian consensus tradition. The UN, NATO, the Marshall Plan. Ich bin ein Berliner. A peaceful, stable global order, the kind exemplified by the EU, with or without Britain and the US. A moderate, tamed global order: bureaucratic, a little dull, but with territorial integrity and a stable rule of law.

Far from perfect, that global order helped to keep so many rivalries in check. The USSR, of course, was once one part of that order, but it was held back by its own weight, its bloated inefficiency, and ultimately, nationalist splintering. Putin can't possibly restore it.

The US never wanted an empire, but as recent events have shown, we need Uncle at the table. WWI, WWII, the Cold War, and now.

Come back, America. Forgiven.

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Karnal

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #96 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:42pm

Bobby. wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:16pm:

Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:56pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 5:29pm:

Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 3:37pm:

Putin tried to join NATO? After he's spent the past decade launching cyber and military attacks against any Eastern European country who even talks to NATO?

No.... in 1990, soon after democracy was restored in Russia.

Putin put an end to that when he was installed PM and ran for Prez. He was only put in to pardon Yeltsin.

Putin spent the rest of that decade organising false flag bomb attacks on his own civilians and killing Chechens. There was a brief moment of self-serving War On Terror lip-service to the US in 2001, and its been downhill ever since.

Russia has long paid back its IMF loans. The threat to Russia now is internal. Russia stagnates economically because of rampant corruption - the skim.

Putin can't change course because to cede any power whatsoever would see him behind bars, or worse. Putin has to stay in the game to save his own skin - the fate articulated by Saddam during his trial, the same fate felt by Mubarrak and Gaddafi. Apparently Putin played a tape of Gaddafi's killing over and over again. The Arab Spring taught Putin a lesson he would never forget. He had a choice: be nice, reform and go the way of the West, or become the meanest, hardest, richest cunt in the world.

You know which way he went, everybody knows. But Putin was rotten from the beginning, as as the old Russian saying about rotting fish heads goes.

Everybody knows.

But those sanctions will bite hard.
Russia will run out of money and then what happens?
He might decide to invade all the previous Soviet countries -
that's what Hitler did too when he ran out of money -
he plundered other countries.

The UK's plan is to sanction the oligarchs, not the economy. Europe can't sanction Russia anyway - it needs the gas. You hit Putin's backers, freeze their foreign bank accounts. Before long, they demand meetings with Putin, threatening their media and corporate support.

It's not perfect, but you need to hit the oligarchs like an organised crime outfit, which they are, but one in control of a state. You're right, targeting the Russian people will have the opposite effect.

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Bobby.

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #97 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:59pm

Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:42pm:

The UK's plan is to sanction the oligarchs, not the economy. Europe can't sanction Russia anyway - it needs the gas. You hit Putin's backers, freeze their foreign bank accounts. Before long, they demand meetings with Putin, threatening their media and corporate support.

It's not perfect, but you need to hit the oligarchs like an organised crime outfit, which they are, but one in control of a state. You're right, targeting the Russian people will have the opposite effect.

My point is that the sanctions may have the opposite effect -
they will turn Putin into another Hitler.

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Ayn Marx Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2937 South of Australia Gender:	Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine Reply #98 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:05pm Bobby. wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:59pm: My point is that the sanctions may have the opposite effect - they will turn Putin into another Hitler. Too late, that happened over a decade ago.
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 103015 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine Reply #99 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:12pm Ayn Marx wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:05pm: Bobby. wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:59pm: My point is that the sanctions may have the opposite effect - they will turn Putin into another Hitler. Too late, that happened over a decade ago.
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #100 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:27pm

Frank wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2022 at 6:47pm:

"They see America in retreat and no other country or collection of countries with strength and goodwill sufficient to be the guardian of peace with freedom. For all of us as individuals and for each of our countries, the challenge is to prove them wrong".

Tony Abbott was the 28th Australian prime minister. This is an edited extract of his speech on Monday to the Danube Institute in Budapest.
https://danubeinstitute.hu/

The US lost the right to claim "guardian of peace with freedom" with its illegal invasion of Iraq, on false WMD intelligence.

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Bobby.

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #101 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:35pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:27pm:

Frank wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2022 at 6:47pm:

"They see America in retreat and no other country or collection of countries with strength and goodwill sufficient to be the guardian of peace with freedom. For all of us as individuals and for each of our countries, the challenge is to prove them wrong".

Tony Abbott was the 28th Australian prime minister. This is an edited extract of his speech on Monday to the Danube Institute in Budapest.
https://danubeinstitute.hu/

The US lost the right to claim "guardian of peace with freedom" with its illegal invasion of Iraq, on false WMD intelligence.

In some ways the Yanks are hypocrites -
without United Nations voting in favor -
they invaded:
Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan and Iraq in 2003.

So who are they to tell Putin what to do?
The Yanks have led by their own example -
they invade anyone if they they want to
and now they complain about Russia. Huh

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Frank

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #102 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:38pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:27pm:

Frank wrote on Feb 22^nd, 2022 at 6:47pm:

"They see America in retreat and no other country or collection of countries with strength and goodwill sufficient to be the guardian of peace with freedom. For all of us as individuals and for each of our countries, the challenge is to prove them wrong".

Tony Abbott was the 28th Australian prime minister. This is an edited extract of his speech on Monday to the Danube Institute in Budapest.
https://danubeinstitute.hu/

The US lost the right to claim "guardian of peace with freedom" with its illegal invasion of Iraq, on false WMD intelligence.

Fcck off, Chinese Goebbels. Just Fcck off.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441 is a United Nations Security Council resolution adopted unanimously by the United Nations Security Council on 8 November 2002, offering Iraq under Saddam Hussein "a final opportunity to comply with its disarmament obligations" that had been set out in several previous resolutions (Resolutions 660, 661, 678, 686, 687, 688, 707, 715, 986, and 1284).[1] It provided a justification for what was subsequently termed the US invasion of Iraq.[2]

Resolution 1441 stated that Iraq was in material breach of the ceasefire terms presented under the terms of Resolution 687. Iraq's breaches related not only to weapons of mass destruction (WMD), but also the known construction of prohibited types of missiles, the purchase and import of prohibited armaments, and the continuing refusal of Iraq to compensate Kuwait for the widespread looting conducted by its troops during the 1990–1991 invasion and occupation. It also stated that "...false statements or omissions in the declarations submitted by Iraq pursuant to this resolution and failure by Iraq at any time to comply with, and cooperate fully in the implementation of, this resolution shall constitute a further material breach of Iraq's obligations."

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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
Vladimir: That’s what you think.

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thegreatdivide Gold Member Offline Australian Politics<br /> Posts: 12461 Gender:	Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine Reply #103 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:39pm Karnal wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:34pm: Come back, America. Forgiven. At least you are prepared to let China have Taiwan (iirc), which suggests you recognize some limits to US global hegemony, in a multi-polar MAD world lacking a real international rules-based system.
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Karnal

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Re: Russia will not invade Ukraine
Reply #104 - Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:58pm

Ayn Marx wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 7:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 23^rd, 2022 at 6:59pm:

My point is that the sanctions may have the opposite effect -
they will turn Putin into another Hitler.

Too late, that happened over a decade ago.

Actually, Hitler was reportedly quite nice to his own people. His personal assistant said Hitler was the nicest boss he'd ever had. He knew everybody's names, their kids, gave birthday presents, used praise - loved animals.

Putin, on the other hand, is reported to be a cold, paranoid, over-controlling micro-manager. He trusts no one, looks at everybody sideways. His handshake is like holding a struggling fish.

Hitler only hated people he didn't know. Putin hates himself.

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