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Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (Read 109808 times)
thegreatdivide
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1140 - Apr 18th, 2025 at 11:31am
 
https://apnews.com/article/trump-powell-federal-reserve-fed-termination-b6148c80...

Trump suggests he can remove Fed Chair Powell and says he’s ‘not happy’ with him over interest rates

.........

Trump's onto something.

The 'dual mandate' of 'independent' central banks (ie, maintain high employment and low inflation)  via manipulation of interest rates is flawed: raise rates and you reduce employment (aka NAIRU)

A better policy which aligns with the needs of the electorate: a ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) AND a mandated full employment policy (JG - job guarantee), with inflation controlled  via price controls and rationing if necessary).

Offensive to worshippers of the "free market" religion, no doubt...
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1141 - Apr 18th, 2025 at 12:48pm
 
(9News)

Election war of words erupts over $180b tax break for investors

Dutton argued cutting negative gearing would worsen the rental market.

"I have stated very clearly, we want a sustainable housing market, which includes rental stock," the opposition leader when debate moderator David Speers asked why his party wouldn't change the capital gains tax discount or negative gearing.

"If you want to cut out negative gearing, as the Labor Party and the Greens would love to do, you will stop investment taking place for properties that are ultimately rented by young Australians."


.........

And yet Dutton believes all young Australians (indeed everyone)  ought to be able  buy a house.

A contradiction, the result of ideology clashing with reality.   

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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1142 - Apr 19th, 2025 at 10:49am
 
Oops....

First the de-industrialization of the US under WTO 'comparative advantage' free-trade rules; now the de- Americanization  of the US dollar

(Raw Story)

'Surge': Rich Americans dump money into Swiss banks as Trump chaos creates dollar anxiety

Wealthy investors are looking to “diversify away from the dollar,” according to a newNBC report.

The outlet claims these investors “believe [the dollar] will weaken even further under the weight of the soaring U.S. debt.”

One country that's drawing them away is Switzerland because of its “neutral politics, stable economy, strong currency, and reliable legal system.”

According to NBC, Swiss banks claim “they have seen a surge of interest and business from high-net-worth Americans opening investment accounts in recent months.”

The move was deemed a “de-Americanization” of wealthy portfolios by the bankers and investors that NBC spoke with.

“It comes in waves,” Pierre Gabris, CEO of Alpen Partners International, a Swiss financial consulting firm, told NBC.

Gabris noted other investment waves came after [former President Barack Obama] was elected and during COVID.

The CEO told NBC that wealthy people are also “looking for residency or second citizenships in Europe and want to buy property. ‘It’s a plan B,’ he said.”

The outlet added that major U.S. banks can’t open Swiss accounts for clients.

However, “Most have referral relationships with a handful of Swiss companies that are registered with the SEC and are allowed to accept U.S. investors.”

According to the Financial Times, “Since 2008, U.S. authorities have cracked down on dozens of Swiss banks for helping Americans avoid paying taxes using the country’s bank secrecy rules.”

Swiss banks adapted to U.S. tax rules by increasing transparency in 2013.


.....

...Yet the  secretive Swiss tax haven industry still comes in handy, for wealthy Americans fleeing the US....
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thegreatdivide
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1143 - Apr 19th, 2025 at 11:37am
 
An observation re "comparative advantage":

(google)

Comparative advantage is an economic theory created by British economist David Ricardo in the 19th century.
It argues that countries can benefit from trading with each other by focusing on making the things they are best at making, while buying the things they are not as good at making from other countries.


....employed  by the WTO as a basis for conducting international 'free trade' aka 'globalization.

BUT, not all countries  have countervailing advantages which enable them to benefit from competition under a 'comparative advantage'  free-trade regime, eg, the high-wage US manufacturing sector couldn't compete with (relatively) low-wage  Japan in the 70s, and now China,  as those Asian giants employed free trade rules to ascend the wage scale.

If manufacturing is considered essential for a nation's security eg shipbuilding and steel, then we have a problem under WTO free trade rules, which Trump is trying to deal with (albeit in the wrong manner). 


It's time for another look at Keynes' 1944 'cleaing union' and 'bankor' concepts,  and adapt them to today's post gold-standard, floating exchange rate, fiat-currency era.
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1144 - Apr 19th, 2025 at 12:23pm
 
(Alternet)

Trump’s 'showdown' with the Fed is bad news for anyone with a 401k — here’s why: economist

President Donald Trump is calling for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to be fired. In a Thursday, April 17 post on his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote, "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!"

Many economists, in response, are saying that it is crucial for the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain its independence from the White House — and not be subject to the whims of Trump or any other president.

One of the economists who is sounding the alarm is Chris Hughes, who chairs the Economic Security Project.

In an op-ed/guest essay published by the New York Times on April 18, Hughes warns that anyone with a bank account or a retirement account should be worried about Trump's attacks on the Fed.

"Since returning to the White House," Hughes explains, "Mr. Trump has been laying the groundwork to fire Mr. Powell, discussing the idea repeatedly with close advisers. This latest escalation brings us even closer to a full-blown crisis over Fed independence. Mr. Trump's dislike for Mr. Powell is more than a personal spat. It's a direct challenge to the economic foundation that has helped make America prosperous for generations."


My comment: see the problem with mainstream economists?
They think "the US has been prosperous for generations", despite the fact US median wages have stagnated for at least 5 decades, simultaneously with the rise of the US 'rust belt' while Asia has risen.

According to Hughes,  financial "markets understand Mr. Trump's threat intuitively" —which is why "investors are already dumping Treasury debt in anticipation of potential Fed politicization."

"If Mr. Trump were to gain direct control of monetary policy," Hughes warns, "global financial markets would enter a state of shock as investors lost confidence in the central bank’s commitment to price stability. The U.S. government would face significantly higher borrowing costs on the trillions it needs in coming years. Household budgets would be hit by higher borrowing costs, too, and by rising inflation."

Hughes is hoping that the U.S. Supreme Court will, at some point, rule in favor of the Fed's independence.

"This constitutional showdown is about whether America can maintain the economic stability that has underpinned its prosperity," Hughes argues. "Insulated central banking isn’t just an American tradition — it's a global standard for good governance…. If Mr. Trump succeeds in subjugating the Federal Reserve, the consequences would extend far beyond his term in office."


My comment: No, it's a means to take control of spending out of the hands of elected politicians.

Hughes adds: "Interest rates would fluctuate with election cycles rather than economic conditions. Inflation expectations would become unanchored, creating the potential for prices to spiral out of control. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency — which gives America enormous economic advantages — would be jeopardized.

My comment: yes, well that last point is NOT a good basis for engendering good global governenance, while US debt is spiralling concurrently with US de-industrialization. 


 
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1145 - Apr 20th, 2025 at 5:00pm
 
If currency-issuing government is forced to tax or borrow its own currency from the private sector .....(Michael West Media):

Corporate tax avoidance. Who helps fund Australia, and who doesn’t?

With the election looming, the promises of the major parties can only be kept if enough tax is collected to pay for them, including from those big corporations that avoid paying. A new search tool will help to expose them, thanks to Mark Zimsak, Jason Ward, Roman Lanis and Mikhail Shashnov.

What do mega port operator DP World, coal mining giant Peabody, packaging behemoth Amcor, metals and mining wholesaler Citic Resources, and News Corp Australia have in common? For the last ten years, their Australian operations have paid no income tax. Zero, zilch, nada.

With a combined income (revenue) in FY 2023 of $8.997B, those five companies contributed no tax to Australia. The largest of them, Peabody, had $4.7B in revenue and reported $5.2m in taxable income, but still no tax to pay.

Over the past ten years, there have been a total of 98 corporations that have not paid any income tax.

Who pays the tax?

As Australia prepares for our upcoming federal election and its impact on future spending and revenue, it is time to put the question of corporate tax, who pays and who doesn’t, back on the kitchen table.

While some call for corporate tax cuts and slashing the public sector workforce – D.O.G.E. style – most Australians want more and better public services. One clear way to enhance our collective well-being is to ensure that corporations generating the highest returns in Australia, from Australians, are contributing fairly and appropriately and not scamming us all.

In order to help all Australians take a closer look at corporate tax payments, a coalition of researchers has developed a simple tool so anyone can look at who pays and who does not.

CICTAR (Centre for International Corporate Tax Accountability & Research), the UTS (University of Technology Sydney) Business School and the Tax Justice Network – Australia, has taken a full decade of Australian Taxation Office (ATO) corporate tax transparency data and combined it into one database with a drop-down menu for selecting a company name to pull up its tax history.

It is now possible for anyone to easily examine the history of revenues and tax payments over the last decade for over 1,000 of the largest corporations operating in Australia. If you need help analysing the data or want more information, reach out to the authors.

Australia collects a higher proportion of tax from corporate income tax than any other OECD country. However, there is plenty of multinational tax dodging that still needs to be tackled in Australia, not to mention globally. The less income tax paid by the largest multinationals, the more must be paid by the rest of us from personal income tax or through GST.

Additionally, if multinationals are not paying taxes on profits genuinely earned from our spending, then Australian companies, generally doing the right thing, are operating at a major competitive disadvantage. This also stifles genuine competition, exacerbates inequality, and increases monopoly power.

Financing the lucky country

The majority of us want excellent public services where all people, businesses and communities can thrive. As highlighted by Ken Henry and others at Per Capita’s recent Community Tax Summit, many changes are long overdue to our overall tax and transfer system. However, a clear place to start is to check that the largest corporations pay tax like the rest of us. Transparency is the first step.

If the richest corporations get away with shirking obligations to society, it undermines the credibility of the overall tax system and broader faith in public institutions.

To maintain tax transparency by way of public scrutiny of corporate tax affairs the Infotax database contains data on 1028 companies. These are the companies that appear in all ten years of the ATO corporate tax transparency disclosures, from 2014 till the current release for 2023 (10,280 company/year observations). The following variables can be viewed using the Infotax tool:

total income;
taxable income; and
tax payable.
This data is directly obtained from ATO disclosures. Additionally, the Infotax tool calculates and presents:

taxable income margin (taxable income/total income);
tax revenue rate (tax payable/total income); and
tax rate (tax payable/taxable income).

For each of the six variables, an average is calculated for each company over the 10 years, and bar graphs are provided for extra visual effect. While the tax rate typically and expectedly comes close to the 30% tax rate, most tax avoidance occurs to reduce the level of taxable income. The taxable income margin represents an estimated profit margin and a consistently low rate can be an indicator of tax avoidance (or a genuinely low margin business).

Of the 1028 companies in the Infotax database, all report total income in each of the ten years (2014-2023), Not all of them report taxable income; resulting in 7,983 taxable income observations out of the possible 10,280. Thus over 20% of taxable income observations over the ten years are likely to be losses. While most of these are likely legitimate losses, some may be artificially created for tax purposes and may be worthy of further investigation.


(cont.)

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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1146 - Apr 20th, 2025 at 5:08pm
 
(cont.)

With respect to tax payable between 713 and 750 companies paid tax over the ten years and in total that comes to 7,303 tax payable observations out of a possible 10,280 for the same period.

Almost 30% of tax payable observations over the ten years represent zero tax paid.

Total income (revenue declared) collected from the 1028 companies increased from $1.342 trillion in 2014 to $1.947 trillion, or 45%.

Taxable income increased from $135.387 billion in 2014 to $295.732 billion in 2023, or 118%.

Finally, tax payable increased from $34.111 billion in 2014 to $75.422 billion in 2023 (121%). Tax collected from the 1028 companies currently included in the Infotax database has more than doubled in 2023 in comparison to 2014. That’s great news for the funding of our public services!

Stay tuned as we expand the list of corporations included in this database and add more data and analyses to inform broader debates related to corporate tax.

Specific case studies of companies will be the subject of future articles as an example of how to apply the Infotax tool to study corporate tax behaviour using the ATO’s tax transparency data.
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1147 - Apr 21st, 2025 at 9:42pm
 
A 'pretty woman' (Danica De Giogio)  spouting nonsense on Sky News, taking flight on the 'government debt is like a business's debt'  nonsense spouted by her co-host.


https://www.msn.com/en-au/video/news/labor-makes-%E2%80%98no-apologies%E2%80%99-...
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1148 - Apr 22nd, 2025 at 12:21pm
 
The Mont Pelerin Society, formed in 1947 in reaction to the new Cold War between the "free West" and the collectivist USSR, promoted 'small government', private enterprise and free markets, in the face of the then ascendent post-WW2 Keynesian 'welfare state'/deficit-spending economics in the Western democracies (as citizens demanded compensation for the hardships they had endured during the war).

Its goals had to wait for the economic disruptions caused by the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s, and the consequent "stagflation" (see below) which brought Keynesianism into question - since government spending no longer seemed able to ensure full employment with stable prices (see below).

Hence the triumph of 'neo'-liberalism, initiated with the 'Powell Memo:

(google)

Powell Memorandum, 1971

On August 23, 1971, prior to accepting Nixon's nomination to the Supreme Court, Powell was commissioned by his neighbor Eugene B. Sydnor Jr., a close friend and education director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, to write a confidential memorandum for the chamber entitled "Attack on the American Free Enterprise System," an anti-Communist and anti-New Deal blueprint for conservative business interests to retake America.[17][18]


Followed by Conservative politicians like Thatcher and Reagan, and free market economists like Milton Friedman.

.....

Back to the Mont Pelerin Society:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Pelerin_Society

The Mont Pelerin Society (MPS), founded in 1947, is an international academic society of economists, political philosophers, and other intellectuals who share a classical liberal outlook.[2][3][4][5][6] It is headquartered at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, Texas, United States.[7][8][9][10] The society advocates freedom of expression, free market economic policies, and an open society. Further, the society seeks to discover ways in which the private sector can replace many functions currently provided by government entities. 

That is - minimization of the social role of government.

The subsequent decrease in social-economic equality, after the demise of Keynesianism,  is explained  by (modern money) environmental economist Philip Lawn:

"The post-WW2 period was far from perfect. The North was still exploiting the South despite the granting of independence to many colonialised nations. Also, the post-WW2 growth, which was needed at the time, was aimless and often purposeless – growth for growth’s sake. It needed to be undertaken with the aim of transitioning from a growth-based industrial society reliant on non-renewable resources (fossil fuels) to a steady-state post-industrial society reliant on renewable resources. This transition should have been completed decades ago. It hasn’t even begun!

Humankind stuffed up in the 1970s. That’s when the writing was on the wall (Ehrlich (1968), “Population Bomb”; Club of Rome (1972), “Limits to Growth”; Daly (1973), “Towards a Steady-State Economy”). Young people enjoying the fruits of their parents and grandparents recognised there was more to life than the accumulation of physical wealth. The oil price hikes of 1973 and 1979 revealed that the global economy was too heavily dependent on oil for transportation and coal for electricity generation. The world looked at itself in the mirror, didn’t like what it saw, and chose more of the past.

Economists didn’t help when they confused 'cost-push inflation' with 'demand-pull inflation' and wrongly recommended government spending cuts to quell inflation. The world experienced a decade of stagflation. It wanted a solution. In the background was the neoliberal machine that had been building during the post-WW2 period (e.g., Mont Pelerin Society) just waiting their turn. Their opportunity came when the world was conned into believing that neoliberalism  was the solution.


......

And "conned" it remains: ask any citizen (like the two in the previous post),  and they will tell you the government must balance its budget like they (the citizens)  have to balance their own household budgets...

Hence Prof. Steve Keen's 'crusade' to debunk the currently entrenched  neoclassical economics (outlined in previous posts in this MMT thread).








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« Last Edit: Apr 22nd, 2025 at 12:45pm by thegreatdivide »  
 
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #1149 - Apr 24th, 2025 at 3:04pm
 
Funny, the Coalition have changed their tune - "we have to pay higher taxes to defend ourselves".

While Labor, now pushing a populist 'low tax' regime to get elected, are asking "where's the money coming from"......

[Re 'defence': it's a pity the UN didn't outlaw war in 1946; unfortunately the Great Powers insisted on the 'right' to make war, in the proposed new UN Charter]. 

Memo for the public and politicians re eradication of poverty:

"It's the economy, stupid": poverty CAN be eradicated.

1. Teach the public and politicians money is created 'ex  nihilo'.

2. Currency-ISSUING governments don't need to 'balance their budgets' (unlike citizens who are USERS of the currency), governments need to ensure the resources (labour, materials, etc) they wish to mobilize, are available for purchase in the nation's own currency, to avoid inflation.

.....

The outcome of the current 'blind-leading the blind' election in Oz will be very interesting; will the Green's higher taxes policies thought necessary to fund public housing and other desirable social services win them votes in the current cost of living crisis badly affecting a large part of the population (thus overcoming enough individuals' self-interested  low tax instincts)?

Meanwhile, apparently Trump  (according to news reports), is facing reality and suggesting higher taxes on millionaires; the wealthy section of MAGA are outraged....



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