(For 'Lisa', who seems to have disappeared, she was such a nice lady....)
Latest post from prof. Bill Mitchell:
Central bankers live in a parallel universeToday, we see that
real wages in 16 of the 35 OECD countries are still below the pre-pandemic levels, which tells us among other things that the inflationary pressures were not wage induced. Further, a speech yesterday by the Federal Reserve boss demonstrated quite clearly how central bankers fudged the whole rate hike narrative.
The OECD wrote:
Real wages are now growing on an annual basis in many OECD countries but remain below 2019 levels in about half of them. In Q1 2024, yearly real wage growth was positive in 29 of the 35 countries for which data are available, with an average change across all countries of +3.5%. However, in Q1 2024, real wages were still below their Q4 2019 level in 16 of the 35 countries
.
Yesterday (July 9, 2024), the Federal Reserve boss appeared before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the U.S. Senate to present the – Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
It was a bizarre presentation because he avoided the obvious disconnect given that the interest rate hikes were explicitly justified as being necessary to push the unemployment rate up to discipline wage pressures and slow aggregate spending down.
The first part of his statement waxed lyrical about how strong the US economy has remained throughout the interest rate hiking period:
Recent indicators suggest that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace … Private domestic demand remains robust, however, with slower but still-solid increases in consumer spending. We have also seen moderate growth in capital spending and a pickup in residential investment so far this year. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.
He also noted that the:
In the labor market, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic: strong, but not overheated.
So what did the interest rate hikes actually do?
More pertinent, if the economy is still going strongly, then the interest rates have not curbed total spending, which brings into question the purpose of the rate hikes.
And if inflation has been declining quickly – “Inflation has eased notably over the past couple of years” – while the demand-side of the economy has been growing robustly, then the inflation could not have been primarily an excess demand problem in the first place.
Which goes to the validity of the entire policy narrative that central banks have used to justify their (unjustifiable) rate hikes.
Jerome Powell also noted that:
Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
And they hardly moved during the period that inflation was accelerating.
Why not?
Because almost everybody ‘in the know’ understood fairly clearly that the inflation was a transitory phenomenon driven by the supply constraints arising from the pandemic, then the disruptions from Putin and OPEC+.
The central bankers had two narratives to justify their rate hikes and one of them was that they wanted to avoid inflationary expectations from breaking out.
cont.