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Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (Read 92485 times)
thegreatdivide
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #915 - May 21st, 2024 at 11:02am
 
(cont)

Some of these powers are already in the hands of Government, and only the will and vision are lacking … despite these encroachments by the Government on the sphere of private enterprise, the main controls of the economic system remain in the hands of those whose actuating motive is private profit. It is to the securing of these controls for the service of the community that the Labour Government will turn its hand.

He then addressed the question of first “importance …financial power” and wrote (p.179):

Over and over again we have seen that there is in this country another power than that which has its seat at Westminster. The City of London, a convenient term for a collection of financial interests, is able to assert itself against the Government of this country. Those who control money can pursue a policy at home and abroad contrary to that which has been decided by the people. The first step in the transfer of this power is the conversion of the Bank of England into a State institution.

He noted that The City had been running a scare campaign opposed to the nationalisation of the bank – for example, “to seize the savings of the well-to-do”

Significantly, even though Attlee succeeded in nationalising the Bank of England, in 1998 Tony Blair “gave the central bank total independence”.

Blair also:

… changed the voting system in the chambers of the CLC by authorizing that businesses could vote alongside the City of London residents. This, in fact, handed power over to the business vote due to the relative population sizes: 7,000 residents versus 24,000 business representatives.

So the Labour Party, which continually expresses fear of The City, used their legislative power while in office to give The City even more power.

The Labour Party also still play along with the Mansion House charade – which is when the Chancellor of the British Government is “invited each year to appear before the Lord Mayor at the Guildhall (in the City of London) and at the Mansion House (the Lord Mayor’s residence) to justify his or her actions and present their plans for future financial policy.”

The City thus makes sure that government policy will always promote The City.

In another 2014 article I read by Sukhdev Johal, Michael Moran and Karel Williams – Power, Politics and the City of London after the Great Financial Crisis – (published in Government and Opposition, Vol. 49, No. 3, 400-425) – we consider “two dominant questions” that “have shaped power relations: what is to be the relationship between the City of London and the (formally) democratic system of UK government in which it is embedded; and what is to be the role of competition in the workings of financial markets?”

A clue is that in the recent decades “we can see the City organizing itself as a conventional professional lobby designed to ensure victory in struggles over overt decisions.”

And “Finance may still be dominant, but its power is increasingly precarious because it now fights on terrain not of its choosing, where outcomes are uncertain.”
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thegreatdivide
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #916 - May 31st, 2024 at 4:47pm
 
A concise description of government funding operations  (in blue):

https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=61774

So when someone says to you “How are we going to pay for it?” you can simply reply as Keynes did: ‘Anything we can actually do, we can afford’.

The ‘How to pay for it’ question arises out of ignorance concerning the way government spending enters the economy.

The sequence is as follows:

1. The parliamentary system authorises government to make the relevant payments.

2. The Treasury or Finance department instructs the nation’s central bank to credit (change to a higher number) the recipient’s bank account balance (called a reserve account) at the central bank.

3. The bank of the recipient then records a deposit in the account of the supplier of the goods and services to the government.


That’s it.

There are no taxpayers or grand kids (sic) in sight!


The 'government debt' delusion is only a device to delude the population into believing the currency-issuing  government can't end poverty.

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thegreatdivide
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #917 - Jun 3rd, 2024 at 6:32pm
 
https://theconversation.com/everybody-has-not-won-trickle-down-economics-was-an-...

‘Everybody has not won’: trickle-down economics was an idiotic idea. How do we fix the inequality it causes?

While the US is an extreme example, it reflects the dominant trend in fiscal policy across the liberal-democratic world. Among the G20 countries, the highest tax rates have fallen by around a third over the past 40 years. Meanwhile, the share of national income sequestered by the wealthiest 1% has grown by 45%.

Time for change
Taken together, Alfani and Robeyns yield two critical conclusions.

The first is that the extreme inequality represented by the ultra-wealthy is a significant social problem, and it is getting worse. The pivotal historical point at which this turn for the worse happened was the advent of globalised neoliberalism some 40 years ago.

Inequality has since become so ingrained in the contemporary world as “normal” that, for some, it is thought of as a natural outcome of a meritocratic system. For others, inequality is a sad reality that cannot be changed, no matter how unjust and undesirable.

Fortunately, reading Alfani and Robeyns together yields a second conclusion. Their work resists both neoliberal triumphalism and cynicism. Inequality, they show, is a social and historical phenomenon, therefore it is not immutable.

Change towards greater justice may be difficult, but there is no reason to believe it is impossible. We know now definitively that the idea of a trickle-down economy is as idiotic an idea as it seems on face value. That people ever accepted it is reason for embarrassment. That some people are still backing it is insulting to all.

Forty years of the neoliberal experiment have created a world of vast and increasing inequality rationalised by the false promises of a global free market. But this can change, and it should change. Most importantly, as these two books attest, there is a growing will to change and to create fairer societies, where the material benefits of the world’s wealth do not accrue to an extreme minority.


.....

Only two choices for meaningful change; return taxation rates back to Keynesian welfare state levels, eg, 90% marginal tax rates on high incomes; or free the currency-issuing  government from the idiotic orthodoxy of raising public revenue from taxation on median (and  even average) incomes, and/or the idiocy of borrowing from rich people (via selling bonds) - which amounts to welfare for the rich (via a secure income stream,  ie the interest rate on the government bond).
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #918 - Jun 4th, 2024 at 11:35am
 
Headline from Microsoft news today:

Homelessness in Canada is on the rise despite huge amounts of new spending
.......

Turns out the "huge anounts of new spending" are c. $450 million - small change for people like Musk and Bezos (see previous post).

The liberal freemarket economies are on the road to self-destruction - see previous post). 

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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #919 - Jun 5th, 2024 at 1:48pm
 
Tweet from Bernie Sanders:

In the richest country in the history of the world 25% of our seniors are trying to get by on $15,000 a year. Try it sometime…And then you hear people talking about cutting Social Security.

Conservatives talk about the "politics of envy", but their's is the politics of indifference.


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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #920 - Jun 12th, 2024 at 11:27am
 
THE CONFERENCE
The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies is delighted to announce the inaugural UK Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Conference to be held at The University of Leeds from July 15 to 17, 2024.

This groundbreaking event will feature Warren Mosler, author of ‘Soft Currency Economics’ (1993), the publication of which became the basis for what has become popularised as Modern Monetary Theory. Warren will be our special guest and the first-day keynote speaker, and will attend all three days, participating and providing critical analysis in multiple sessions.
........

WHAT IS OUR GOAL?

The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies was launched in 2018 and is part of an international movement challenging the economic orthodoxy of the last four decades. Its founders came together through a common concern that the dominant economics of our day is deeply flawed.

To that end, the primary aim of GIMMS is education that provides the tools to enable people to understand that the state of the public finances per se is not a limiting factor in government spending, and that the central question revolves around the development and distribution of real resources, along with the political nature of those decisions.

GIMMS’ mandate is to challenge the household budget narrative of the state finances that dominates the daily political and media discourse and to encourage a discussion about the full range of government’s priorities and policy options and how best they can serve the public purpose.

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thegreatdivide
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #921 - Jun 16th, 2024 at 11:26am
 
Economist Richard Denniss, from the 'Australia Institute' spruiking an "Unequal Australia" tour, says:

"The only time unemployment benefits rose above the poverty line was in the middle of the COVID crisis. Because we thought middle-class people might become unemployed."

"It's government choices that cause inequality."


That's true Richard, but like I told you, politicians have to get elected, and the public don't like paying higher taxes.

Meanwhile in the UK, a desperate Sunak is appealing to voters' self-interest by claiming the Labour Party will increase taxes on all Britons by 2000 pounds, as Starmer is claiming all his policies are "fully funded" - code for saying we won't raise taxes nor spend money to improve public infrastructure.


Silly adversarial politics creating zero real change, as usual.



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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #922 - Jun 20th, 2024 at 1:37pm
 
https://ellenbrown.com/2024/06/19/why-does-the-government-borrow-when-it-can-pri...

Why Does the Government Borrow When It Can Print?

......

Of course, as examined in the recent film 'Finding the Money", by Maren Poitras.

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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #923 - Jun 22nd, 2024 at 1:31pm
 
From Prof Steve Keen:

Two parties obsessed with government debt

In the UK it doesn't matter who you vote for in the July election, you'll have a government prepared to compromise public services and risk future growth because of an obsession with government debt.

Imagine if Keir Starmer, the UK Labour leader, had said, let’s not get too obsessed with government debt. If we go down that road we won‘t be able to provide the public services we need, our infrastructure will crumble further and we’ll simply see the country’s productivity erode further by the day.

Unfortunately, he didn’t say that. Instead, he has pledged himself to the temple of 'fiscal responsibility', just like the Conservatives. That means, whichever party is in power the UK can expect something akin to the austerity that plagued the last 2010s.


.......

Sad: the currency-issuing government is limited by availability of resources, not debt. 

But  private financiers/lenders demand  the sole privilege of creating money which they lend at interest, while government is forced to tax or borrow in order to spend.

Note to inflation freaks: price controls and rationing (if necessary) can contain inflation, in a central bank - zero interest scenario.  
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #924 - Jun 24th, 2024 at 5:05pm
 
Conclusion from Bill Mitchell's latest blog post:

The overall conclusion from Oxfam is valid though:

Between the COVID-19 pandemic and high inflation caused by war and corporate profiteering, it was a tough start to the decade for most. Even in relatively wealthy countries like Australia, millions of people have been pushed to the brink by rising prices of food, energy and unaffordable rent. In stark contrast, this has been a profits bonanza for some of Australia’s biggest corporations.

We are a long way from fixing that mess.

The journey has to start with progressive organisations such as Oxfam rejecting the mainstream macroeconomic narratives about the government being a household with financial constraints.


..an excerpt from the article:

RBA denial about profiteering demonstrated they are just part of the ideological machinery supporting neoliberalism

https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=61821

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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #925 - Jun 26th, 2024 at 3:56pm
 
Fom Marxist economist Michael Robert's  blog:

Fixing the climate – it just ain’t profitable

....

But  Michael misses the point: who creates money (for profit, ie  governments or bankers,  is more important than who creates goods (for profit) ie,  workers or capitalists.

Currency-issuing governments will have to 'fix the climate',  in a green transition funded with free public money issued in national treasuries. 

Meanwhile the Oz parliament is arguing over whose climate policy is the most 'cost effective'.

But neither side will be able to transition to the zero emissions economy quickly enough, while taxpayers don't want to pay higher taxes and fossil price-gouging companies (profit-seekers)  don't want to let go of the fossil-fuel gravy-train.

Ouch.   
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #926 - Jun 28th, 2024 at 5:36pm
 
Interesting. 

Apparently the first question  Biden had to face was about inflation, and he stumbled over it ( according to a news item: 'Democrats in full-blown panic-mode after the debate'). 

I say interesting, because inflation is the primary issue which mainstream economists have employed to reject MMT.

And so in Oz we are being subject to mainstream insanity from a conga-line of conservative economists spouting nonsense such as "tax cuts for the lowest paid will cause inflation, because they will spend the money, wheres tax cuts for the wealthy won't cause inflation  because they will save the money (.....so much for the postulated "trickle-down" theory).

And they think by lifting interest rates they can stop the poor from buying fuel, electricty, food, and paying for rent - the main items causing inflation.

Yet there is no shortage of the first three items in Oz; inflation in those items is caused as much by supply problems as by excess spending on them (of which there is none: the low paid don't spend 'excessively' or 'increase demand' via spending on essentials). 

(And lack of affordable housing including for rent was caused by government selling its public housing stock, following discredited  "privatization" ideology).

And equally delusional Reverse Bank governor Bullock is being urged by these mainstream clowns to raise interest rates which will pour more money into  the hands of the wealthy who have savings in the bank  (or government bonds), while increasing hardship among mortgagees and renters.

Deplorable.
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #927 - Jul 4th, 2024 at 11:41am
 
Great article from Prof Steve Keen, including disagreement about the consequences of man-made CO2:

Richard Werner is, like me, a critic of Neoclassical economics, and a developer of an alternative monetary approach to economics. He was also, like me, invited to undertake a research project at BC4LS, which resulted in his book How to Achieve Long-Term Sustainability (Werner 2023) being published by BC4LS in February 2023.

I respect Werner's work on the dynamics of money and banking enormously, and I have frequently referenced him in my own work on these topics. His contributions on money and banking, both in this book and previous works (Werner 1997, 2011; Werner 2014, 2016; Mkhaiber and Werner 2021), are original and important, and his work and mine on money and banking are both compatible and complementary—especially on the role of credit in aggregate demand for both goods and services and asset price speculation.

There is also much else in his book with which I agree, such as the need to ensure an equitable distribution of income, the need for credit guidance so that money is directed towards investment rather than speculation, the importance of other forms of environmental damage apart from global warming—especially biodiversity loss—and the capacity of innovation to reduce the damage we do to the environment.

However, there are two critical points where he makes unscientific claims that cannot go unchallenged. These are his claims about the role of CO2 in global warming (Werner 2023, p. 22) and the relevance of the laws of thermodynamics to service sector output (Werner 2023, p. 31).

Taking the second first, he claims that "the virtual world … is not … subject to the laws of thermodynamics":

the transformation from manufacturing to services has been more pronounced than predicted in the 1970s. This also contributes to a diminishing pressure on finite resources: the services sector, including IT, is increasingly expanding in the virtual world that is not limited by the parameters of this planet nor subject to the laws of thermodynamics. (Werner 2023, p. 31. Emphasis added)

This is as scientifically valid a statement as saying that a mouse, because its mass is tiny, is not subject to the Law of Gravity. Any entity with mass is subject to the Law of Gravity, and any process that uses energy is subject to the Laws of Thermodynamics. Though "the virtual world"—say, a virtual reality tour of Angkor Wat experienced by someone in New York—may consume less energy than flying that individual from New York to Cambodia, it still requires energy to create the virtual reality simulation. The question is how much energy the virtual world requires to create the simulated outcome, compared to using energy in the real world to achieve the real outcome.

Werner subsequently does not consider the questions of energy or resource availability in his book, so that this scientifically false proposition becomes an extreme form of the "decoupling" hypothesis, that an increase in services output relative to manufacturing will mean that economic growth is "decoupled" from both energy and raw material inputs.

Individual countries—such as the UK—have apparently "decoupled" their GDP from energy, but this is only because they have outsourced production to "Third World" countries. The evidence I presented in Chapter 13 shows that, at the global level, though the ratio of GDP to energy has risen over time (from 3.4 billion 2015 US$ per MTOE in 1971 to 5.8 billion in 2019), producing more output still requires more energy.

Chapter 4 of Decoupling debunked: Evidence and arguments against green growth as a sole strategy for sustainability (T. et al. 2019) also compiles the evidence that the increase in the service sector relative to manufacturing has had only a muted impact on resource usage. Growth in output will require growth in energy and raw materials inputs, but Werner ignores these issues in his advocacy of a high-growth strategy for sustainability.

Werner's claims on the role of CO2 in causing global warming are also unscientific. He states that "by far the most important greenhouse gas is water vapour", claims that it accounts "for over 90% of the warming … while carbon dioxide causes less than 4%" and that "the evidence remains limited that man-made CO2 emissions are intrinsically the cause of the extinction of species and the destruction of nature":

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized the role of man-made factors and especially CO2 emissions. However, by far the most important greenhouse gas is water vapour (see, e.g., Rakoczi and Ivanyi, 1999-2000), accounting for over 90% of the warming produced by all atmospheric greenhouse gases, while carbon dioxide causes less than 4%.(Carter, 2008). Other researchers have pointed out the role of particulate pollution in affecting global temperatures (Herndon, 2019; Herndon and Whiteside, 2019).

More research efforts are needed to examine the various research hypotheses scientifically. Meanwhile it can be said that the evidence remains limited that man-made CO2 emissions are intrinsically the cause of the extinction of species and the destruction of nature. (Werner 2023, p. 22)

While the first claim is true, this mechanism is well-known by scientists: CO2 matters not because it is the major greenhouse gas, but because it is the most abundant long-lived greenhouse gas.
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #928 - Jul 12th, 2024 at 8:05pm
 
(For 'Lisa', who seems to have disappeared, she was such a nice lady....)

Latest post from prof. Bill Mitchell:

Central bankers live in a parallel universe

Today, we see that real wages in 16 of the 35 OECD countries are still below the pre-pandemic levels, which tells us among other things that the inflationary pressures were not wage induced. Further, a speech yesterday by the Federal Reserve boss demonstrated quite clearly how central bankers fudged the whole rate hike narrative.

The OECD wrote:

Real wages are now growing on an annual basis in many OECD countries but remain below 2019 levels in about half of them. In Q1 2024, yearly real wage growth was positive in 29 of the 35 countries for which data are available, with an average change across all countries of +3.5%. However, in Q1 2024, real wages were still below their Q4 2019 level in 16 of the 35 countries
.

Yesterday (July 9, 2024), the Federal Reserve boss appeared before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the U.S. Senate to present the – Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.

It was a bizarre presentation because he avoided the obvious disconnect given that the interest rate hikes were explicitly justified as being necessary to push the unemployment rate up to discipline wage pressures and slow aggregate spending down.

The first part of his statement waxed lyrical about how strong the US economy has remained throughout the interest rate hiking period:

Recent indicators suggest that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace … Private domestic demand remains robust, however, with slower but still-solid increases in consumer spending. We have also seen moderate growth in capital spending and a pickup in residential investment so far this year. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year.


He also noted that the:

In the labor market, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic: strong, but not overheated.


So what did the interest rate hikes actually do?

More pertinent, if the economy is still going strongly, then the interest rates have not curbed total spending, which brings into question the purpose of the rate hikes.

And if inflation has been declining quickly – “Inflation has eased notably over the past couple of years” – while the demand-side of the economy has been growing robustly, then the inflation could not have been primarily an excess demand problem in the first place.

Which goes to the validity of the entire policy narrative that central banks have used to justify their (unjustifiable) rate hikes.

Jerome Powell also noted that:

Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.


And they hardly moved during the period that inflation was accelerating.

Why not?

Because almost everybody ‘in the know’ understood fairly clearly that the inflation was a transitory phenomenon driven by the supply constraints arising from the pandemic, then the disruptions from Putin and OPEC+.

The central bankers had two narratives to justify their rate hikes and one of them was that they wanted to avoid inflationary expectations from breaking out.

cont.
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Re: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
Reply #929 - Jul 12th, 2024 at 8:10pm
 
cont.

They never did even when inflation was accelerating.

It was a total scam run by the policy makers to cover their tracks.

The Federal Reserve boss still claimed that:

Our restrictive monetary policy stance is helping to bring demand and supply conditions into better balance and to put downward pressure on inflation.

Given the data that statement is just nonsensical.

Total spending in the US is booming and, now, that is mostly because of the rate hikes.

The rate hikes around the world have precipitated a massive redistribution of income away from low-income mortgage holders who are being squeezed relentlessly, towards high-income financial asset holders, who have enjoyed huge income gains from interest income.

The US government is also spending heavily on net interest payments as a result of the relatively elevated levels of outstanding public debt and the rising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve boss then tried to stake out the importance of his work:

We continue to make decisions meeting by meeting. We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could stall or even reverse the progress we have seen on inflation. At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face. Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will continue its practice of carefully assessing incoming data and their implications for the evolving outlook, the balance of risks, and the appropriate path of monetary policy.


This statement received the press attention but should not have.

It is clear that that monetary policy is relatively ineffectual in moderating aggregate spending despite the continuing posturing by central bankers who are pressured by commercial bankers to push rates up because the increases push profits into the private corporations they represent.
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