(CNN)Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines, nearly a year and half after leaving office. On Thursday, the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol used its first prime-time hearing to make the case that Trump used his power to try and overturn the 2020 election result.

The committee faces political headwinds, however. A majority of Americans (55%) now believe that Trump was either not or only partially responsible for the rioters who overtook the Capitol, according to a recent NBC News poll. That's up from 47% in January 2021.

January 6 did little damage to Trump over the long term

Analysts like me remarked over and over again during Trump's time in office that he was one of, if not the most unpopular presidents. He left office with the lowest approval rating of any president at the end of his first term (39%) and the highest disapproval rating (58%) thanks in part to a late swoon following the events of January 6, 2021.

Today, Trump's polling position with Americans overall is one of his best, and he remains the front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination.

The former President's favorable rating stands at 43% with an unfavorable rating of 52%. That makes for a net favorability rating of -9 points -- not particularly high, but then Trump was never particularly popular.

He averaged a net approval rating during his presidency of -12 points. A 3-point jump in net popularity may not seem like much, but his current net favorability rating is higher than 86% of his net approval ratings during his presidency.

If nothing else, it's 10 points higher than his net approval rating at the end of his time in office.
In 2024 matchups against President Joe Biden, Trump is running a point or two ahead of Biden, on average. It wouldn't be particularly impressive for most politicians to be leading, within the margin of error, a President with a low-40s approval rating.
But being barely ahead or tied with Biden would have been a revelation for Trump in 2020. He managed to lead in only about 1% of all national polls taken in 2020 -- and in none that met CNN's standards for publication.

In raw numbers, Trump's been ahead in more polls against Biden over the past few months than he was for the entirety of 2020.

And while Trump is not as popular among Republicans as he was on Election Day 2020, he's still the man to beat in the GOP field.

Trump's favorable rating with Republicans is at or slightly north of 80%. His "very favorable" rating is in the low 50s. By this measure, Trump is more beloved by Republicans than Biden is by Democrats. There is no Republican active in the political arena who is as well liked at this point by the party faithful as Trump.

Ahead of 2024, Trump continues to post some of the strongest numbers in national primary polls for any nonincumbent in the last 50 years. He laps the field with about 50% of the vote. Previous nonincumbents polling at Trump's level all went on to win their party's nomination for president if they decided to run.

Trump may be a unique case, though, as a former incumbent. Indeed, Trump's numbers don't make him a sure thing. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a higher favorable rating than Trump among Republicans who hold an opinion of both men.

Still, Trump is in an enviable position. One that might have been unimaginable when he left office in January 2021.
So just what happened to allow Trump to become less unpopular? The answer is probably simple: time. Trump is no longer the president. Americans' memories tend to be very short. Issues that once seemed important (e.g., controlling the coronavirus pandemic) have sunk to the bottom of the priorities list for most voters, as new concerns arise (e.g., inflation).

The question for which the answer is yet unknown is what happens if Trump decides to run for president again? Will the American public's strong dislike of him from January 2021 return? Or does distance really make the heart grow fonder?

If Mr Enten started his opinion piece like my version below, he'd be much closer to the truth

Quote:

Well, he couldn't get any less popular.

He lost the popular vote - twice! (by millions, and millions) - and was the most unpopular President in the entire history of the United States.

John Smith wrote on Jul 12^th, 2022 at 5:30pm:


CNN relies on it's own polling of likely voters, while you are simply regurgitating DNC taking points.

Both are facts, but the people don't write political headlines, the DNC does though the media.

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 12^th, 2022 at 5:57pm:


My hope is that the democrat base believes exactly what you are pushing, because an over-confident voting base stays home come this November's mid-term elections, and when the Republicans take back both Houses of Congress the Republican voter Base will be energized for 2024 - no matter who runs - while the Democrats will be more reluctant to come out come 2024.

Vangard wrote on Jul 12^th, 2022 at 6:14pm:


Biden and Hillary Clinton are more popular than Trump   

Trump is more popular since Jan 6, 2021