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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #90 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 11:46am A more active sun already affecting some communications. We are nowhere near the peak of the cycle! Hold on to your hats! This ACTIVE sun could cause surprises and mayhem yet!
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Re: The sun
Reply #91 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 1:10pm

Storm seems to be picking up speed!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
33m

GEOMAGNETIC STORM INTENSITY INCREASING: We are now at G2 Level (Moderate; Kp=6). Strong Aurora at high latitudes (>55deg.) and could reach US/ Canada border; may cause electrical grid voltage alarms near pole; & poor HF radio propagation at high latitudes. Forecasted to reach G3.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp8J-MVXoAMeJba?format=jpg&name=small

Those living in. north of NH are in for a big aurora!

Update:
Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
2h

SOLAR STORM STRENGTHENS YET MORE. We are experiencing a strong geomagnetic storm (G3; Kp>6). Solar wind speed >600 km/s. Aurora likely visible south of the Canadian border. Spacecraft may suffer pointing and charging problems. Grid voltages will fluctuate esp. at higher latitudes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp9yzblWIAEhnfX?format=png&name=small

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« Last Edit: Feb 27^th, 2023 at 11:12pm by Jovial Monk »

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Re: The sun
Reply #92 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 1:12pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong

CME WATCH - 2023.02.26: Note how the "snow" from the proton event on the image changes with time. There is a sudden increase immediately after the CME leaves (fast particles - near speed of light) but goes on only decreasing slowly as the slower particles arrive much later.

Video:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1630036286835765249

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Re: The sun
Reply #93 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 11:02pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
2h

SLOW BURN? There are many different types of flares. Impulsive flares are gone in a flash (literally). Most flares start with an explosion and then decay slowly away. This flare is odd in that it brightens over 6 hours & has only reached C5 level. Dont recall one like this before

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630158701225992192

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong

THE SUN TODAY:
1) SNN up again to 150.
2) Only one C flare in last 24 hours.
3) Lots of activity on the East limb but none of it looks strong.
4) The C flare came from sunspot region AR3234 (see previous tweet). A couple of new small regions emerging (white).
5) 5 CMEs yesterday.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp-DVL-WcAMF60S?format=jpg&name=small

Sunspots are not going away leaving a blank Sun, are they?

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #94 - Feb 28^th, 2023 at 10:02am Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong 10h Aurora visible in the UK last night as a result of the Geomagnetic storm. It has now strengthened to Kp=7. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp-bGJlWwAEqvb0?format=jpg&name=small
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Re: The sun
Reply #95 - Feb 28^th, 2023 at 1:05pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
45m

The Geomagnetic Storm carries on but has waned to a G2 event. The ferocity of the storm was due to two simultaneous factors: the influence of that coronal hole (see earlier tweet) and the arrival of the CME from the M6 even a couple of days ago (see various previous tweets).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqBQNuHWIAIj_3h?format=png&name=small

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #96 - Feb 28^th, 2023 at 1:08pm Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong 34m CME WATCH - 2023.02.27: The white disk in the middle is the size of the visible Sun. A lot of activity off of both poles and a smallish event off the west limb towards the end. https://twitter.com/i/status/1630395460115365891
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Re: The sun
Reply #97 - Mar 1^st, 2023 at 8:21am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
7h

THE SUN TODAY:
1) SSN down as we lose sight of some regions over the W limb
2) No significant flares in the last day. Lots of low C flares (which NOAA does not bother to count!)
3) Only 1 promising region behind NE limb.
4) Large spot coming over the NE limb.
5) 11 CMEs yesterday

Sunspot numbers
Quote:

Keith Strong
@drkstrong
9h

The Average Sunspot Number for February 2023 works out to be about 125. The is the second highest since September 2014. The highest was last month at 144.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqDiiccWAAA9cqr?format=png&name=small

So the sun is definitely not in a GSM! We will have to face the problem of AGW after all!

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Re: The sun
Reply #98 - Mar 1^st, 2023 at 8:30am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
12h

A REAL VORTEX: Unlike the over-hyped "solar polar vortex" from a couple of weeks ago, let's take a look at a real one. This was seen on the west limb yesterday. We are looking at a prominence edge-on. Its magnetic field starts to unravel and you can clearly see the twist in it.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630511437855567872

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
12h

HUGE PROMINENCE ERUPTION: The Sun produced prominence eruption this morning (see size relative to Earth) off the Southeast limb near the S pole of the Sun. Some of the emission reached to the edge of the SDO AIA instrument's field of view. However much of if fell back to the Sun.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630508642284781570

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
12h

More Aurora last night - the geomagnetic storm has now lasted over 30 hours and still is at G2 (kp=6) level.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqCftOEWwAE1ch_?format=png&name=small

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« Last Edit: Mar 3^rd, 2023 at 7:13am by Jovial Monk »

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Re: The sun
Reply #99 - Mar 1^st, 2023 at 12:28pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong

THE M8.6 FLARE: The large, bright X-ray loop at the beginning of the movie is left over from an earlier C flare. The main event starts at the northeastern foot point of that loop, and it looks as though a CME was launched and from an area that potentially geoeffective. Stay tuned

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630667049130139648

So the remnants of the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) that did not fall back to the sun could hit us. Guess communications could be hit.

Quite the active sun!

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Re: The sun
Reply #100 - Mar 1^st, 2023 at 8:55pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
1h

Spitting Image: Watch this tiny sunspot region emerge and start to interact with the surrounding magnetic fields. It produces a series of violent jets, some of which go over 100,000 km into the corona. If this continues to grow at this rate it will become a major sunspot region.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1630863167898238978

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong

CORONAL HOLE ALERT: There is a large coronal hole (dark area) approaching Sun center in the northern hemisphere. Coronal holes are the source of high-speed solar wind streams that can cause geomagnetic storms. This one is low enough latitude that it may impact Earth in a few days

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqH5VtjWIAE9j7C?format=jpg&name=small

A second solar event that could impact here.

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #101 - Mar 2^nd, 2023 at 12:08am Quote: Keith Strong @drkstrong · 1h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN down to 95. 2) two M flares and some C flares. 3) Looks like some substantial regions behind the NE limb. 4) Two regions produced all the flaring; AR3234 produced the M9 yesterday but surprisingly the new little region in the SE accounted for 3 of the events
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Re: The sun
Reply #102 - Mar 2^nd, 2023 at 1:54pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
1h

FOUR LARGE SPOTS APPEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. The two most northerly seem to be the return of regions 3208 and 3209. The other two must have grown up on the far side of the Sun. At least three of the leading sunspots are larger than the Earth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqLoBH0X0AAHfaS?format=png&name=small

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
1h

CME WATCH - 2023.03.01: There seems to be coronal mass ejections going off every which way! See if you can count them all. According to the quick-look catalog there were 26. Did you get them all? No? Suggest you run the movie at least 4 times and count each quadrant separately.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1631117328648683521

TWENTY SIX Coronal Mass Ejections!

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« Last Edit: Mar 2^nd, 2023 at 2:15pm by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #103 - Mar 3^rd, 2023 at 6:00am Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SNN still at 100. 2) Only 2 significant flares in the last day. X-ray background up to C2 level 3) Three significant looking regions on/behind the East limb. 4) Losing several regions over the W limb while some new one appearing in the east. 5) 10 CMEs yesterday
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Re: The sun
Reply #104 - Mar 4^th, 2023 at 6:27am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
7h

THE SUN TODAY:
1) SSN up to 115.
2) Two M flares and a couple of hi-Cs.
3) Still seems to be something coming over the SE limb
4) Both M flares were from AR3234 which is about to disappear over the W limb. New large spot on SE limb 5) 6 CMEs yesterday. Sun's tilt at maximum south

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
1h

X FLARE! Sunspot region AR3234 produced an X2.07 flare on the NW limb of the Sun just a few minutes ago. That is the 3rd largest flare this solar cycle and the 6th X flare so far in 2023. Video of the flare and associated CME to follow as soon as the data is available.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
15m

SOLAR FLARE CAUSES RADIO BLACKOUT: The X2 flare caused a R3 (strong) level radio blackout warning from NOAA. It affected most of north and south America with HF blackouts and degradation of navigation signals.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqUhpZvXgAEQvYf?format=png&name=900x900

Things are hotting up as we move towards the peak of the cycle—this is normal.

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