Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

THE SUN TODAY: No coronal data available from SDO

1) SNN and areas increasing.    [580 mil,  114 spots]

2) M6 flare (see earlier tweets).

3) Geospace is more active (Bz turned south) but no geomagnetic storms as yet.

4) No hi-res olar imaging so can't do proper sunspot count. 

5) 8 CMEs yesterday.

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X2 1702 UT Dec14
24-hr: X2 1702 UT Dec14

STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE: Sunspot 3514 erupted on Dec. 14th (1702 UT), producing a strong X2.8-class solar flare. This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·8h

NOAA updates Solar Cycle 25 Forecast: The original forecast for SC25 was for a similar cycle to SC14 but slightly higher. Given the levels of activity that we have seen so far, they have revised their forecast to be 155 (sunspots) & 184 (radio) with maximum occurring late in 2024

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN up; areas down.    [830mil,  130 spots]

2) Lots of C flares including a C8 from AR3514 on the W limb.

3) Geospace a little more active as solar wind speed reaches 500 km/s.

4) 11 spot regions on the disk, 4 new and promising (white). Few prominences.

5) 13 CMEs yesterday.

Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN up; areas down    [400mil,  129(!)]

2) M1 flare from AR3514 over the west limb (so probably much bigger event).

3) G2 geomagnetic storm in progress (see earlier tweets).

4) 14 spot regions on the disk, 5 of which are new and several look promising for growth.

5) 6 CMEs yesterday

Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h

THE SUN TODAY: 

1) SSN down a little; areas up a lot.   [88 areas, 750mil,   144 spots]

2) 3 moderate level C flares this morning from 2 different spot regions.

3) Geospace getting quieter as solar wind speed drops.

4) 10 spot regions on the disk, with two new ones appearing on the limb.

5) Only 5 CMEs yesterday.


·
9m

M FLARE: The Sun just produced an M4 flare from the AR3516/19 sunspot complex on the SW limb. Note little sign of any significant ejecta so the chances of a strong Earth-bound CME seem small. and a resultant big geomagnetic storm unlikely.

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN stable; areas down slightly.   [1100 mil, 138 spots]

2) An M3 plus 3 moderate C flares all from region AR3519 on the SW limb.

3) Geospace quiet with low solar wind speed of about 350 km/s.

4) 13 spot regions on the Sun, 4 new but small (white).

5) Only 1 CME yesterday.

Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h

THE SUN TODAY: 

1) SSN and areas down.    [940MIL,  123 spots]

2) A lone M flare from region AR3529 (see previous tweet). [second M3 flare from same region]

3) Geospace a little more active but still classified as quiet.

4) 13 spot regions on the disk, 3 new but small (white). Seems something coming over the NE limb.

5) 1 CME yesterday!

6h
M FLARE FROM NEW REGION: AR3529 is a large sunspot region (area 420 mil) that has not done much flaring so far. This morning it made up for lost time by producing an M3 flare peaking at 11:18 UT. Note the plasma jet that heads north from the flare site but most of it falls back.

15h
THE FIRST M FLARE TODAY PRODUCED A MASSIVE CME: Remember that northward jet from the 11 UT M3 flare? We are seeing the consequences of that in the outer corona. A CME was launched northward. Little chance of it hitting Earth as it is too far out of the plane of Earth's orbit.

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN up; areas down.    [700MIL,  12 regions,   98 spots]

2) No significant flares (>C5) in the last 24hrs.

3) Geospace quiet.

4) 12 spot regions on the solar disk, 5 new (white) but small at the moment. Possibly 2 regions just behind the E limb.

5) 5 CMEs yesterday.