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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #570 - Dec 28^th, 2023 at 5:01am Quote: Solar wind speed: 417.9 km/sec density: 3.99 protons/cm3 X-ray Solar Flares 6-hr max: C1 0820 UT Dec27 24-hr: C1 0317 UT Dec27 https://spaceweather.com/ No report from Dr Strong today but he gave us this:
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Re: The sun
Reply #571 - Dec 28^th, 2023 at 8:11pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h

CORONAL HOLE ALERT: A trans-equatorial coronal hole (dark area just east of Sun center) is about to rotate into the western hemisphere of the Sun where it may start to blast Earth with high-speed solar wind and if the magnetic polarity is south then we may get a geomagnetic storm

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GCZ7zPDXIAAk2Te?format=jpg&name=small

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Re: The sun
Reply #572 - Dec 29^th, 2023 at 5:04am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN up a bit; areas down. [520MIL, 78 spots]

2) Talk about flatlining but X-ray background still at C1 flare level.

3) Geospace very quiet as expected with low-level of solar activity. [But remember the coronal hole!]

4) Only 7 spot regions on the disk. Note E. half of the Sun has only 1 region!

5) Just 7 CMEs.

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« Last Edit: Dec 29^th, 2023 at 5:48am by Jovial Monk »

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Re: The sun
Reply #573 - Dec 30^th, 2023 at 5:38am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SNN and areas down [430MIL, 83 spots]

2) A lone C8 flare from sunspot region AR3533, otherwise a lot of minor C flares.

3) Geospace remains quiet for the moment.

4) Only 4 sunspot regions on the disk. 2 dark prominences on the SE limb, candidates to erupt soon.

5) 6 CMEs yesterday

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Re: The sun
Reply #574 - Dec 31^st, 2023 at 6:00am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN down; area up. Why opposite? [590MIL, 92 spots]

2) A lone C6 flare from sunspot region AR3530 on west limb.

3) Geospace still quiet, no sign of coronal hole influence as yet.

4) Only 6 spot regions on the disk, one new in NW. AR3534 still growing slowly.

5) 11 CMEs yesterday.

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Re: The sun
Reply #575 - Jan 1^st, 2024 at 12:39am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·1h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN & areas down [470MIL, 48 spots]

2) Four C flares probably from the new region on the east limb (3536?) - SDO data unavailable.

3) Geospace unexpectedly quiet.

4) Eight spot regions on the disk, 4 new (white). Looks as if the new region on the E limb will be active.

5) 11 CMEs

Quote:

3h
DO WE HAVE A LIVE ONE: A movie of the east limb over the last 12 hours. . . .shows the appearance of a new sunspot region rotating onto the visible disk and starting to produce flares. How active will it get? How long wil it last? Stay tuned.

Happy New Year!

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« Last Edit: Jan 1^st, 2024 at 5:47am by Jovial Monk »

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Re: The sun
Reply #576 - Jan 2^nd, 2024 at 5:09am

Quote:

Keith Stron@drkstrong·17h

X FLARE!!! The largest flare so far during solar cycle 25 occurred at 21:50 UT in the new region on the East limb. It was an X4.8 flare, surpassing the previous largest event on 14th December (an X2.9 flare). What a way to close out 2023 with a bang - 2 hours before the New Year.

And STILL idiots will talk of “the” Grand Solar Minimum.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN up slightly; areas down. [360MIL, 55 spots]

2) Very active with X4.8 flare (see previous tweets) and 3 M flares all from AR3536 in the east limb.

3) Geospace unusually quiet for such an active time.

4) 8 spot regions on the disk, 3 new. About to lose two today.

5) 17 CMEs.

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #577 - Jan 3^rd, 2024 at 5:10am Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up slightly, areas down. [210MIL, 44spots] 2) Only a C6 flare from AR3536, otherwise lots of small C flares. 3) Geospace showed some increased activity but did not reach Geomagnetic storm level. 4) 8 spot regions on the disk, 5 new. Possible region over NE limb. 5) 7 CMEs.
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Re: The sun
Reply #578 - Jan 4^th, 2024 at 4:56am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN down; areas up. [300mil, 59 spots]

2) A lone M1 flare from AR3536 otherwise relatively quiet.

3) Geospace quiet.

4) Five spot regions on the visible disk. two new (white) but look promising. AR3534 decaying. New regions coming over the East limb (dashed).

5) 9 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

16h
Another big step towards solar maximum: A large section of the southern polar crown filament erupted out from the Sun earlier today. That structure decays away by the time of solar maximum. It does mean we are not at solar maximum as yet.

The polar filaments have erupted before this cycle.

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« Last Edit: Jan 4^th, 2024 at 5:26am by Jovial Monk »

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Re: The sun
Reply #579 - Jan 4^th, 2024 at 5:06am

As well as the flares, spots, CMEs etc another thing is happening: the sun has brightened a bit, reaching the brightness level of Solar Cycle 23.

Another nail in the coffin of “the” Grand Solar Minimum bullshit. The ONLY thing that had going for it was that SC 24 was the lowest cycle for some time. I guess that made the idea that SC25 would be another low cycle (NASA etc) or a GSM (bullshit artists like Dubyne) slightly credible.

How disappointing for Dubyne’s prospects that the sun did not cooperate.

When the sun, eventually, does go into a GSM the result will be miniscule: a 0.2°C global cooling compared to 0.23°C PER DECADE that AGW warms the globe by in a decade. Tiny blip.

AGW is the problem we are failing to face up to.

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Re: The sun
Reply #580 - Jan 5^th, 2024 at 6:08am

Quote:

Keith Stro@drkstrong·6h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) Both SSN and areas up. [350MIL, 63 sunspots]

2) A double M flare from region AR3536 (see previous tweets).

3) Geospace quiet.

4) Nine spot regions on the visible disk, 5 of which are new (white). Activity beyond the east limb (dashes). Note N. hemisphere busy, S. few sunspot regions.

Quote:

17h

DOUBLE M FLARES: An M1 flare was immediately followed by an M3 event. You can see the M1 brighten as the large loops form arching of AR3536. Then the big flare forms blasting out a stream of 10Mk plasma to the the SE.

Sol has plenty of pep it seems. Dumbyne was wrong! Dr Strong posts the evidence that the globe is NOT cooling:

Quote:

6h
CLIMATE FACTS - 2024.01.04: There's a lot of climate misinformation being posted to X. Here's the antidote. This table compares record high temperatures with record low. Last year: 3 times more daily highs, 5 times more monthly record highs, and 9 times more all-time record highs

Track records here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records

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« Last Edit: Jan 5^th, 2024 at 6:18am by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #581 - Jan 5^th, 2024 at 6:25am In the figure in the above note snowfall and precipitation records: a warming world sees more evaporation followed by more precipitation. The atmosphere can carry more moisture.
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Re: The sun
Reply #582 - Jan 6^th, 2024 at 6:04am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·5h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN up; areas down. [230MIL, 64 spots]

2) No significant flares (>C5) in the last day.

3) Geospace quiet with solar wind speed hovering around 350 km/s.

4) 10 spot regions on the visible disk but 6 new (white). The two on the SE limb are large spots, why hasn't NOAA numbered them

Quote:

5h
CLIMATE FACTS: The antidote to climate disinformation. December was the 4th month hotter than any previous satellite measurement. Satellites don't measure surface temperatures but a temperature parameter at an altitude of about 4 km on average. Note the long-term upward trend.

spaceweather.com
Quote:

SOLAR MAX IS COMING: Since Solar Cycle 25 began in Dec. 2019, 782 sunspot groups have crossed the face of the sun. Almost half (361) appeared in 2023. This montage assembled by Ali Ebrahimi Seraji of the Mahani Observatory in Iran shows how sunspot production has skyrocketed:

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« Last Edit: Jan 6^th, 2024 at 6:10am by Jovial Monk »

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Re: The sun
Reply #583 - Jan 7^th, 2024 at 7:48am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·7h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN and areas up despite relatively quiet day. [470MIL, 121 sunspots]

2) A lone C flare from AR3538.

3) Geospace very quiet.

4) Suddenly a lot of newly numbered sunspot regions. 12 spot regions on the disk, 5 new (white) and still some promise of more to come over the E limb (dashes).

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Re: The sun
Reply #584 - Jan 8^th, 2024 at 6:26am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·6h

THE SUN TODAY:

1) SSN and areas up sharply surpassing highest numbers form last month. [820MIL, 149 sunspots]

2) Lots of minor C flares from many regions.

3) Geospace very quiet.

4) 12 spot regions on the disk, 4 of which are new (white). Perhaps a new region behind the SE limb.

5) 6 CMEs yesterday.

Quote:

6h

17 FLARES IN A DAY: Yesterday (6th Jan) was one of the most flare productive days so far this cycle. We had a C flare approximately every 85 minutes. It's hard to find a sunspot region in this 1-day movie that did not share in the action at some point. Today seems to be a repeat

Quote:

3h
LATEST CO2 FIGURES: NOAA has just posted the atmospheric CO2 concentration as measured from the Maunakea (note not Mauna Loa - measurements suspended there due to volcanic activity). The CO2 concentration is a new record at 421.86 ppm, 2.87 PPM higher than the same time last year

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