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Jovial Monk

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Re: The sun
Reply #75 - Feb 23^rd, 2023 at 4:23pm

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
11h

NOTICE A PATTERN? We have had 4 M flares in 2 days. The timing between them is spookily similar - just a few minutes under 9 hours. Coincidence? Possibly. Time for more energy to build up? Possibly. Assuming that the rate does not change, the next big flare will be at 23:00 U.T.!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fpl4cdzWAAA5vm4?format=jpg&name=small

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Re: The sun
Reply #76 - Feb 23^rd, 2023 at 9:43pm

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Keith Strong@drkstrong
27m

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A weak G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) happened over night as the solar wind speed topped 550 km/s. This was likely due to the solar wind from the edge of that southerly coronal hole clipping the Earth (see earlier tweet).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FppbJQxXgAIs1SN?format=jpg&name=small

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Jovial Monk

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Re: The sun
Reply #77 - Feb 24^th, 2023 at 5:49am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
4h

THE SUN TODAY:
1) SSN up to 105.
2) 3 M flares in the last day plus moderate Cs.
3) Promise of more spots to come over E limb, but mainly been spotless plage of late.
4) AR3234 has been the most active but new region ahead of is growing rapidly. Could get some big flares from it

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpqYSmrWYAAMCsp?format=jpg&name=small

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« Last Edit: Feb 27^th, 2023 at 11:43am by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk

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Re: The sun
Reply #78 - Feb 24^th, 2023 at 5:52am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong

PERSISTANCE: Here is a prominence that will just not go away. This two-day movie shows it continuously changing but it has not erupted. The thing of note is at the southern-most end of the structure, it gets unusually dark (dense) that is usually a tell of an impending eruption.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1628786456792629249

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Jovial Monk

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Re: The sun
Reply #79 - Feb 25^th, 2023 at 5:43am

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Keith Strong@drkstrong
5h

THE SUN TODAY:
1) SSN up to 120.
2) X-Rays: 5 moderate C flares, background falling to C1.
3) Active area behind SE limb - more scattered plage or spots?
4) The flares are from AR3235 and 3236). [It is] These rapidly growing regions that produce flares, not the big complex spot regions.

120 sunspots—the sun is definitely not in a GSM.

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Re: The sun
Reply #80 - Feb 25^th, 2023 at 9:27am

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Keith Strong@drkstrong
·
8m

EXPLOSIVE M FLARE: Sunspot region AR3229 in the NW of the Sun produced an M flare just acouple of hours ago. It caused a huge eruption of plasma from the Sun. Note the bright, hot, flare material but also a dark component (cooler and denser) to the east from the erupting filament

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629259276152610816

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Jovial Monk

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Re: The sun
Reply #81 - Feb 25^th, 2023 at 1:48pm

Scary!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
44m

CME WATCH - 2023.02.24: Using the SOHO LASCO C3 instrument (larger field of view) because the two events today were very large scale and may qualify as a halo event (one heading for Earth). Unfortunately, we cannot tell from this data alone whether it is heading for Earth or away

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629316035357581312

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #82 - Feb 25^th, 2023 at 6:34pm Another view of this mornings eruption: Quote: SpaceWeatherNews@SunWeatherMan Gorgeous solar eruption today. A trillion tons of plasma ripped away from the sun this afternoon. Luckily, it is aimed northward and not aimed at earth. https://twitter.com/i/status/1629242923723427840
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Re: The sun
Reply #83 - Feb 26^th, 2023 at 5:28am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
5h

THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 140.
2) Two M flares yesterday and a C8 earlier today.
3) Still more activity behind the SE limb but no spots to date.
4) The M flares were from AR3229 and 3235. Some nice prominences.
5) 8 CMEs yesterday (see earlier tweets).

There are still some halfwits on Twitter wittering on about a GSM but I think reality—spread enthusiastically by me—has taken over.

A GSM is the sun with very few sunspots—and consequent flares—for an extended period. 140 is not “very few!”

So no GSM and an extended La Nina is giving way to ENSO neutral conditions. The NH summer this year will be a hot one.

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Re: The sun
Reply #84 - Feb 26^th, 2023 at 5:31am

A sign of what critters can expect:

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
48m

The DC metro area just more than doubled its snowfall total for the 2022/23 winter season. We must be over half an inch by now! The cherry blossoms will likely be over before the annual Cherry Blossom Festival! Snow drops, crocus, daffodils, forsythia, & pear blossoms are all out

VERY early spring in DC! Likewise Japanese cherry trees have been blossoming earlier and earlier as the globe warmed.

Critters better take heed!

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Re: The sun
Reply #85 - Feb 26^th, 2023 at 7:32am

Quote:

Keith Strong
@drkstrong

A BIG FLARE IN PROGRESS: Sunspot region AR3229 on the NE limb is emitting a large flare, at this time it is an M5 event and still rising. This is the same region that gave us the long-duration M4 yesterday.

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
40m

M6 FLARE: The flare in AR3229 (see earlier tweet) topped out at an M6 event peaking at 19:44 UT. It started rising at about 18:30 UT and has already gone on for over 2 hours, making it another long-duration event with an almost certain CME associated with it.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629584543928729600

A flare going on for over two hours: this is not a quiet sun, not a sun in a GSM!

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
1h

CME WATCH - 2023.02.25: There are two massive CMEs off the NW limb; the first (about halfway through the movie was the M4 flare from yesterday and the second (near the end with all the "snow") is today's M6 proton event - another Long Duration Event as it has gone on for 6 hours.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1629665944468373506

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« Last Edit: Feb 26^th, 2023 at 1:40pm by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #86 - Feb 26^th, 2023 at 12:33pm Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong PROTON STORM: A Low-level proton storm (S1) is hitting the Earth from the earlier M flare (see previous [posts] first proton storm for quite a while. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp2493NXwAAppM-?format=png&name=small
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Re: The sun
Reply #87 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 3:46am

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
4h

THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN still at 140.
2) 2 M flares - almost an exact repeat of yesterday!
3) There seems to be a lot of activity behind the E limb but show me spots
4) The M1 was from AR3236 while AR3229 produced another long duration M6.
5) 7 CMEs yesterday (see earlier tweets)

Sun continues fairly active. Not the most active sun but clearly not in a GSM. What will SC26 do? (Almost impossible to predict but I think will continue to increase in activity.)

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong
2h

TOMORROW EARTH COULD BE HIT BE A SOLAR STORM! The NOAA models predict that we will be hit by the CME (see earlier tweets) from yesterday's M6 flare. They are predicting solar wind velocities of over 700 km/s. It will likely be a G2 (moderate, Kp=6) geomagnetic storm. Stay tuned.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp5oLHUXgAEODed?format=jpg&name=small

We have been hit by two solar storms already that had solar wind velocities of 500-550KPS so this one will be a bit stronger. Some communications disrupted as well as flights over the poles.

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #88 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 3:47am Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong 2h Meanwhile the proton storm from the M6 event continues to disrupt polar radio communications in the polar regions. It has lasted nearly a whole day so far. However, it is showing signs of decaying slowly.
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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: The sun Reply #89 - Feb 27^th, 2023 at 11:44am Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong 3h GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS: As NOAA predicted (see earlier tweet) we are in a weak geomagnetic storm - a G1 event (Kp=5). However, it is earlier than they thought. They said it could reach G2 (Kp=6) tomorrow. We'll wait and see. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp7QaCIXsAUL73d?format=png&name=small
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