MeisterEckhart wrote on Mar 7
th, 2023 at 4:05pm:
It was not NATO that triggered this. When the Ukrainian people removed Yanukovych, it sent a clear message to Russia that Ukraine was moving away from the Russian sphere of influence.
This was the bridge too far that Russia would not tolerate.
Russia's aim is to reassert itself in the Baltics and as far into former Warsaw Pact countries as it can get, (Serbia and Hungary would not disapprove), but to do that, Russia needs Ukraine to be in line with the Russian sphere of influence.
I'm afraid that it is NOT quite that simple. I think that NATO, the EU, and the IMF were the catalyst directly responsible for the series of events, that gave Russia no choice but to attack the Ukraine.
You make it sound like Yanukovych was removed because he was AGAINST the Ukraine joining the EU. He was 100% in favor of the Ukraine joining the EU. So let me add some context. You forget just how deeply indebted the Ukraine was. In fact, Yanukovych estimated that he would need $160B over three years to make up for the expected lost in trade he would have with Russia. And, to cushion the pain from the reforms that the the EU was demanding. The EU refused. Which left the Ukraine teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
Yanukovych was hoping that the IMF could help them out, like they did in 2008. When Tymoshenko was the Prime Minister(with a $16.5 billion loan). The IMF also approved a $15.5 billion stand-by program for the Yanukovych government in 2010. After only disbursing about $3.5 billion, the program was frozen in 2011. Because Ukraine failed to meet its conditions. A year later, the program had expired.
The IMF, like the EU, was unwilling to grant the sort of loans Yanukovych wanted under a new program. In fact, they wanted the Ukraine to pay back $3.7B within the next year. This was unacceptable for the Ukraine.
Yanukovych was furious with the IMF. He thought that they were just ignoring his reasonable demands, to lift the tough conditions placed on its earlier help. Such as, increasing the retirement age, and the freezing of pensions and wages. When Oliynyk, Ukraine’s permanent representative for NATO, and others turned to Europe’s officials for help, they “
spat on us".
There was also the EU's demand that Yulia Tymoshenko be released from prison. Even though she stated publicly that she would kill Yanukovych for his u-turn on joining the EU. And, the fact that she was the only person who could beat him in the elections. So, that was never going to happen. There was also the matter of Moscow blocking the sales of Ukrainian-produced meat, cheese and some confectionery, and the scrapping of duty-free quotas on steel pipes.
Yanukovych also knew that the EU was NEVER going to offer the Ukraine the prospects of full membership. So, no matter what decision Yanukovych made, he would either be damaged politically, or be damaged economically. So he chose the economic deal with Russia. Which I believe was the right choice. His problem, although he(and his family) vehemently denies any involvement, was ordering the police to kill almost 140 protesters.
Russia has absolutely no interest in rebuilding the Warsaw Pact(or the old USSR). Putin has said so on numerous occasions. Do you know WHY Russia abandoned the Warsaw pact in the first place? And, NATO still continues to lie to Moscow, about limiting its expansion into Eastern Europe.
I think that Russia's only aim, is to protect the security of its sovereignty as a country. To protect itself against any existential threat along its borders. Or, against the REAL threat of foreign countries supplying its enemy with arms, munitions, logistics, etc. I am very surprised at Putin's patience. 30 NATO countries indirectly attacking him, and he's still issuing warnings. At some point these warnings will stop.
I don't really care who is at fault in this conflict. Or, who started it. None of that will offer me any comfort, while I/m in my bunker riding out a nuclear winter! But what I do know, is that if we keep killing more and more Russians(by proxy), and keep bragging about it, we will eventually force Putin's nuclear hand! And then, EVERYBODY LOSES!!