Australian Politics Forum - What to do about AGW

Jovial Monk

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What to do about AGW
Mar 19^th, 2023 at 8:56am

Clearly, the sun is not in a GSM. This means AGW will continue to warm the globe. Why does this matter?

1. Wet bulb temperatures will rise. This will make the tropics not uninhabitable but sweat will not evaporate at much higher temperatures so work cannot be done outside during the day. Very high altitudes excepted of course, also some areas favorably situated wrt to coast, prevailing winds, etc.

2. Agriculture will face problems. Areas now growing wheat will soon not be able to, unless we can breed very heat tolerant varieties. Moving agriculture towards higher latitudes is not much of an answer: these regions will face very long, brutally hot summer days. Growing crops will be difficult, fields may have to be worked at night, etc.

3. Already happening now and continuing—climate zones will shift polewards. What can agriculture do?

4. Arctic air will enter middle latitudes more and more as the Jet Streams continue to grow weaker due to AGW.

5. Cities generate lots of UHI. UHI is not AGW, make that clear! Have to find ways, NOT involving cement, to lighten the color of roadways, footpaths, roofs of buildings. A warmer world is one in which more evaporation takes places from warmer oceans into warmer atmosphere which can hold more water vapor. What goes up must come down—precipitation as rain, snow, sleet will increase. Hail storms will increase in number and the size of hailstones will increase—much more damaging to cars, window, infrastructure, animals without shelter etc.

Huge snowfalls generate more problems:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14032023/california-atmospheric-river

6. Sea level will get a bump up if warm waters continue to reach the parts of West Antarctic glaciers that are in the sea. Two, Thwaites and Pine Is are already losing ice from the iceshelves (glacier ice on the surface of the sea) and it will not take much to see the Thwaites and then the Pine Is glaciers slide into the sea. This will bump sea levels up a notch very quickly.

East Antarctic glaciers are facing the same problem and there are no volcanoes under East Antarctica to try and blame for the loss of glaciers.

From Twitter:

Quote:

Mike Hudema
@MikeHudema
·
Mar 17
An ice shelf the size of New York City collapsed in East Antarctica last year: https://buff.ly/3Lk3poz

How many more 'historic events' before we #ActOnClimate?

#climateemergency #climate #energy #oceans #renewables #GreenNewDeal

https://twitter.com/i/status/1636707469132017664

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« Last Edit: Mar 19^th, 2023 at 9:28am by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #1 - Mar 19^th, 2023 at 8:58am I posted the above here because the clown pretending to Mod Environment has threatened TWICE to ban me “my itchy trigger finger is hovering over the ban button.” (There is no actual ban button but you get the drift. Seems Larry and Jason want Booby to destroy his MRB even more. Nice “friends” there, Booby!)
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Jovial Monk

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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #2 - Mar 19^th, 2023 at 8:59am

Rate of warming ATM is 0.231°C per decade, up from about 0.18°C/decade, since 1999. It could increase the rate again, no doubt. These are RSS figures—satellite.

We have suffered through three La Ninas on the trot. That is now over with ENSO neutral conditions being established. Hopefully an end to flooding in NSW/Qld.

No El Nino but when one comes I think it will be brutal.

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« Last Edit: Mar 19^th, 2023 at 9:22am by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #3 - Mar 28^th, 2023 at 7:09am Dr K Strong on the latest IPCC report:
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Jovial Monk

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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #4 - Mar 28^th, 2023 at 7:58pm

Melting of Arctic is is proceeding apace, especially the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.

Quote:

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on the planet, and the toll on Greenland's massive ice sheet is becoming achingly clear.

According to new satellite data compiled by Polar Portal(opens in new tab), a collection of four Danish government research institutions, Greenland has lost more than 5,100 billion tons (4,700 billion metric tons) of ice in the past 20 years — or roughly enough to flood the entire United States in 1.6 feet (0.5 meters) of water.

This extensive ice loss has contributed to half an inch (1.2 centimeters) of global sea-level rise in just two decades, the researchers wrote on their website.

The team's data covers the 20 years from April 2002 to August 2021 and is based on observations taken by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) fleet of satellites, which launched in March 2002.

Have a read of the article. Grim reading. maybe nor for us but for our kids/grandkids.

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #5 - Apr 26^th, 2023 at 10:14am Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h The Earth has accumulated 3 times more heat energy in the last 15 years than it did in the previous 45 years (source: BBC). Note the strong warming in the Arctic and the odd cold patch to the south and east of Greenland.
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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #6 - Apr 26^th, 2023 at 10:20am

Dr Strong references the BBC. Have to go out now, but I will search the BBC for their article and for the paper that sparked the article.

We see tho, that AGW is real—it is not the sun doing this because the sun left the mid century maximum in the 1980s and we have kept on warming.

Not even a GSM of Maunder scale would do more than put a blip on the temperature record.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #7 - Apr 26^th, 2023 at 2:59pm

OK, the BBC article is here: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339934

Bit of a jumble that article, e.g. El Nino does not warm the oceans, it warms the atmosphere and cools the ocean, etc.

Original paper is here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/

Quote:

The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming the ocean, the land, the cryosphere, and the atmosphere. According to the Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary warming over multiple decades is human-driven and results in unprecedented and committed changes to the Earth system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems and human systems.

Nobody can really argue with that. All three land ice sheets—Greenland, Antarctica and Himalayan—are all losing ice each year. IR spectra taken by satellites show the lack of IR at the wavelengths corresponding to CO2 mainly and the other greenhouse gases like ozone and methane.

Quote:

The Earth heat inventory provides a measure of the Earth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifying how much heat has accumulated in the Earth system, as well as where the heat is stored. Here we show that the Earth system has continued to accumulate heat, with 381±61 ZJ accumulated from 1971 to 2020. This is equivalent to a heating rate (i.e., the EEI) of 0.48±0.1 W m−2. The majority, about 89 %, of this heat is stored in the ocean, followed by about 6 % on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % available for melting the cryosphere.

The heat in the ocean is stored mostly in the top 700m with some in 700–2000m. Lot of heat not far below the surface.

Quote:

Over the most recent period (2006–2020), the EEI amounts to 0.76±0.2 W m−2

That is a big jump in less than 2 decades!

Whole article is here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/essd-15-1675-2023.pdf

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« Last Edit: Apr 26^th, 2023 at 4:39pm by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk

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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #8 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 1:08pm

The heating of the oceans has increased markedly just this year!

Quote:

Temperatures in the world’s oceans have broken fresh records, testing new highs for more than a month in an “unprecedented” run that has led to scientists stating the Earth has reached “uncharted territory” in the climate crisis.

The rapid acceleration of ocean temperatures in the last month is an anomaly that scientists have yet to explain. Data collated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), known as the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) series, gathered by satellites and buoys, has shown temperatures higher than in any previous year, in a series stretching back to 1981, continuously over the past 42 days.

[OISST series here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst

Quote:

The world is thought to be on the brink of an El Niño weather event this year – a cyclical weather system in the Pacific, that has a warming impact globally. But the El Niño system is yet to develop, so this oscillation cannot explain the recent rapid heating, at a time of year when ocean temperatures are normally declining from their annual March and April peaks.

Makes the extreme temps even more concerning!

Graph from the Guardian article:

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Jovial Monk

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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #9 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 1:12pm

cont’d

Quote:

Warming oceans are a concern for many reasons. Seawater takes up more space at higher temperatures, accelerating sea level rise, and warmer water at the poles accelerates the melting of the ice caps. Hotter temperatures can also be dire for marine ecosystems, as it can be difficult or impossible for species to adapt. Corals in particular can suffer devastating bleaching.

Some scientists fear that the rapid warming could be a sign of the climate crisis progressing at a faster rate than predicted. The oceans have acted as a kind of global buffer to the climate crisis over recent decades, both by absorbing vast amounts of the carbon dioxide that we have poured into the atmosphere, and by storing about 90% of the excess energy and heat this has created, dampening some of the impacts of global heating on land. Some scientists fear we could be reaching the limit of the oceans’ capacity to absorb these excesses.

Meredith said it was still too soon to tell. “The rate [of temperature rise] is stronger than climate models would predict,” he said. “The cause for concern is that if it carries on, this will be well ahead of the climate curve [predicted] for the ocean. But we don’t know yet if that is going to happen.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/26/accelerating-ocean-warming-e...

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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 44785 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #10 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 3:09pm Conference website https://heartland.org/topics/environment-energy/
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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #11 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 4:54pm Plimer is a joke.
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Frank

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Re: What to do about AGW
Reply #12 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 4:59pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 27^th, 2023 at 4:54pm:

Plimer is a joke.

That's a very convincing refutation only for the likes of you, juvenile.

Plimer later served as professor and head of geology of the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne from 1991 to 2005.[10][12] He was conferred as professor emeritus of earth sciences at the University of Melbourne in 2005,[9] and was a professor of mining geology at the University of Adelaide.[1][10][19]

Plimer is a fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, the Australian Institute of Geoscientists and the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy;[13] an honorary fellow of the Geological Society of London;[13][20] a member of the Geological Society of Australia, the Royal Society of South Australia, and the Royal Society of New South Wales.[13]

He co-edited the 2005 edition of Encyclopedia of Geology.

No joke there, juvenile.

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Jovial Monk Moderator Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 45888 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #13 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 5:17pm He is a joke in relation to AGW. Did he write the book that bears his name?
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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 44785 Gender:	Re: What to do about AGW Reply #14 - Apr 27^th, 2023 at 5:26pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 27^th, 2023 at 5:17pm: He is a joke in relation to AGW. Did he write the book that bears his name? Whoa! Juvenile! Ease up on the rationality and reasoned argumentation and refutation based on facts.
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