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More from JM's tripe -IPCC (Read 2658 times)
lee
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #45 - Apr 18th, 2023 at 12:18pm
 
https://theconversation.com/torrents-of-antarctic-meltwater-are-slowing-the-curr...

From one of the top alarmists

A model - as always Grin Grin Grin Grin

Edit: From the Methods section of E23:

“…and the multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP6 models under a high- anthropogenic-emissions scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), for the future climate component from 2020 until 2050.”

You know about even Gavin Schmidt, porogrammer extraordinaire saying don't't use RCP (SSP) 8.5. Roll Eyes

https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-heart-of-ice-has-skipped-a-beat-time-to-...

"In 2022 the summer minimum was less than 2 million square km for the first time since satellite records began. This summer, the minimum was even lower – just 1.7 million square km."

Two years is now climate. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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« Last Edit: Apr 18th, 2023 at 12:27pm by lee »  
 
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lee
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #46 - Apr 18th, 2023 at 2:18pm
 
And again -

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 18th, 2023 at 7:04am:
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/135/047/366/original/59eeb9...


Of course, as the idiot who posted the pathetic meme in the wrong board DIDN’T realise—the main service bees provide is
POLLINATION!


Bee populations are also under threat from several vectors:

1. Huge monoculture plantings, increasingly GMO crap, means the bee visits only one species, one genome of a species and may not get all its nutrients. Wildflower meadows get defoliated, robbing the bees of a healthy mix of nutritients.

2. Overworking the bees by taking too much honey out the hive late in the year

3. Varroa Mite etc predating on or parasitation of the bees, already weakened by the other factors


and -

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 18th, 2023 at 2:09pm:
Wheat and tomatoes would be alright, pollinated by wind, but forget fruit and veg.

So let wildlflower meadows be, mix crops up a bit and apiarists should not overwork their bees!


Poor JM doesn't realise it is not only bees.

"The list of insect pollinators is long and includes many different species of bees, flies, wasps, beetles, butterflies and moths. Even species with a bad reputation such as houseflies and mosquitoes are important pollinators. "

https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/insect-pollination.html

I wonder if he thinks we will run out of houseflies soon. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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lee
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Re: More from JM's tripe -General
Reply #47 - Apr 21st, 2023 at 1:53pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 21st, 2023 at 11:18am:
Quote:
Plastics cause wide-ranging health issues from cancer to birth defects, landmark study finds


First analysis of plastics’ hazards over life cycle – from extraction to disposal – also shows ‘deep societal injustices’ of impact


Not just BPA etc. I am buying big, widemouth preserving jars (Ball brand or Mason jars) to put stuff in that goes into the freezer, e.g. see https://rootsandboots.com/how-to-freeze-food-in-glass-jars If the jar has a shoulder measure the head space from the bottom of the shoulder, not the top of a jar. I will also preserve incl pressure canning food in these jars so they will be used heaps. Use airtight plastic lids, available from Amazon, for freezing.

Quote:
Plastics are responsible for wide-ranging health impacts including cancers, lung disease and birth defects, according to the first analysis of the health hazards of plastics across their entire life cycle – from extraction for manufacturing, through to dumping into landfill and oceans.

Led by the Boston College Global Observatory on Planetary Health in partnership with Australia’s Minderoo Foundation and the Centre Scientifique de Monaco, the review found “current patterns of plastic production, use, and disposal are not sustainable and are responsible for significant harms to human health … as well as for deep societal injustices”.

“The main driver of these worsening harms is an almost exponential and still accelerating increase in global plastic production,” the analysis, published in the medical journal Annals of Global Health, found. “Plastics’ harms are further magnified by low rates of recovery and recycling and by the long persistence of plastic waste in the environment.”


The Great Pacific Garbage Dump, two floating rafts of plastic crap!

Quote:
“Plastic production workers are at increased risk of leukaemia, lymphoma … brain cancer, breast cancer, mesothelioma … and decreased fertility. Plastic recycling workers have increased rates of cardiovascular disease, toxic metal poisoning, neuropathy, and lung cancer.”

Meanwhile, residents of communities adjacent to plastic production and waste disposal sites experience increased risks of premature birth, low birth weight, asthma, childhood leukaemia, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lung cancer. The report referred to evidence that infants in the womb and young children were at particularly high risk.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/29/plastics-cause-wide-ranging-...

Study the article is based on:
https://annalsofglobalhealth.org/articles/10.5334/aogh.4056/



Except -

" Epidemiological studies have found both acute and chronic health impacts [123"

"This finding is consistent with broader epidemiological evidence of an association between phthalate exposure and increased blood pressure in children [298]."

"There is also extensive epidemiological information linking exposure to effects in humans, reviewed in Landrigan et al. [21] and in the Human Health section of this report (Section 4)."

"Epidemiological studies conducted among children born or living near fracking sites have found elevated rates of childhood cancer, especially leukemia, and congenital heart defects [996, 998]."

https://annalsofglobalhealth.org/articles/10.5334/aogh.4056

Epidemiological studies provide correlation. They DON'T provide causation. Roll Eyes

The inverse correlation of pirates and temperature -

...
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« Last Edit: Apr 21st, 2023 at 2:00pm by lee »  
 
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Re: More from JM's tripe -General
Reply #48 - Apr 21st, 2023 at 5:30pm
 
And again -Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 21st, 2023 at 5:05pm:
In 2022 and likely again in 2023.

Quote:
The climate crisis had “frightening” impacts in Europe last year, with heatwaves killing more than 20,000 people and drought withering crops, an EU report has found.

Its writers said drought was already baked in for many farmers in 2023. The only way to limit the rising damages of global heating was rapidly to cut carbon emissions, they said.

The report, from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), said widespread heatwaves had led to Europe suffering its hottest summer on record in 2022, by a large margin. These would have been virtually impossible without global heating and had led to many premature deaths.

People in southern Europe endured 70-100 days of heat stress, where the temperature felt like at least 32C, accounting for wind and other factors. In the UK, temperatures passed 40C for the first time.

The heat, plus low rainfall, caused drought that affected more than a third of the continent at its peak, the report said, making it the driest year on record. Flows in almost two-thirds of Europe’s rivers were lower than average. High temperatures also meant that the carbon emissions from summer wildfires were the highest in 15 years and the European Alps lost record amounts of ice from glaciers.

Overall, Europe experienced its second-warmest year ever recorded, with temperatures rising at twice the global average rate – faster than on any other continent. Over the past five years, the average temperature has been 2.2C higher than in the pre-industrial era.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/20/frightening-record-busting-h...

This sort of thing is what was predicted for high latitude areas. How are you going to shift agriculture to these regions from lower latitudes? Irrigation canals, rivers way down on normal levels? The Alps losing record ice—exposing dark ground to absorb the sunlight and be warmed by it, causing more melting etc. Positive feedback, read up on it.


Strangely the report only goes back to 1950. I guess they never had reliable temperatures before that. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

"The temperature reached 48 °C (118.4 °F) in both Athens and Elefsina, Greece on July 10, 1977, setting the official European record high. There's also an unofficial record of the temperature climbing to 50 °C (122 °F) in Seville, Spain on August 4, 1881."

https://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/europe.php

Fancy temperature reaching over 40C at Heathrow. "Acres and acres tar and cement"

Perhaps he can tell us what the normal level is in rivers? Does it vary? By how much?  Strangely the photo doesn't say when this low level is.

From the report "River discharge in 2022 was the second lowest on record across Europe, and marked the sixth consecutive year of below-average flows." The report limits itself here to being from 1991.  Roll Eyes

Precipitation can't have been that bad. The report merely notes it being "below average".

As for JM's bedwetting about moving crops north..."Winter was generally wetter than average in northern and eastern Europe, while drier-than-average conditions occurred in southwestern Europe." Roll Eyes

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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #49 - Apr 23rd, 2023 at 7:39am
 
Quote:
As for JM's bedwetting about moving crops north..."Winter was generally wetter than average in northern and eastern Europe, while drier-than-average conditions occurred in southwestern Europe."  Roll Eyes


Monk doesn't know.  Roll Eyes
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lee
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #50 - Apr 23rd, 2023 at 12:38pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Apr 23rd, 2023 at 7:39am:
Monk doesn't know


That's because he gets his science from the Guardian. Roll Eyes
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Re: More from JM's tripe -General
Reply #51 - Apr 24th, 2023 at 2:06pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 24th, 2023 at 5:30am:
Jesus! A super El Nino is forecast and what do we see in the so–called Environment board?


But not from BoM-

"The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. This means that while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, there is approximately a 50% chance that El Niño may develop later in 2023. This is about twice the normal likelihood.

A significant amount of warmer than average water exists in the sub-surface of the western and central tropical Pacific Ocean, and warm sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies continue to strengthen in the eastern tropical Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has decreased to negative values over the past fortnight. Warming ocean temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and decreasing SOI values can be a precursor of El Niño development.

El Niño WATCH is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur, rather an indication that some of the typical precursors are currently occurring. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that El Niño thresholds are likely to be approached or exceeded during the southern hemisphere winter.
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #52 - Apr 24th, 2023 at 3:38pm
 
Even if we use the 8th of April for the Bureau's model on the southern oscillation index gives us the impression that we have been in El Nino conditions since April. And although graphs claim that it is an El Nino watch, those graphs are close enough to El Nino conditions, we might as well start calling the climate we are experiencing as El Nino.
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #53 - Apr 24th, 2023 at 4:20pm
 
Yes. When it doesn't agree with the definition...change the definition. Roll Eyes

And of course make it a SUPER El Nino at the same time.
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #54 - Apr 24th, 2023 at 5:28pm
 
There is a forecast of strong El Nino conditions by June to August. Possibly severe from then onwards, or a return to neutral by September (depending on BOM's report later during the winter).
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #55 - Apr 24th, 2023 at 6:51pm
 
There may or may not be. Anything other than that is not science. It is ok in science to say you don't know. Roll Eyes

Of course it is the climate models (bow down you climate heathens) that predict a SUPER El Nino. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #56 - Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm
 
lee wrote on Apr 24th, 2023 at 6:51pm:
There may or may not be. Anything other than that is not science. It is ok in science to say you don't know. Roll Eyes

Of course it is the climate models (bow down you climate heathens) that predict a SUPER El Nino. Grin Grin Grin Grin


The Bureau creates models of forecasting, based on previous historical data that matches the prevailing weather patterns. The Bureau uses forecast models from various sources around the world. It is up to the researcher to decide which model is the most likely accurate forecast.

And if living a life of 4 decades does not give you experience to sense cold, dry wintery weather reminiscent of El Nino conditions, you are always welcome to rely on Bureau forecasts to say that we will experience El Nino conditions. But don't "tsk, tsk" the Bureau just because you don't want to call it a strong El Nino.
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #57 - Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:28pm
 
Well - Monk is a Marxist:


...
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lee
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #58 - Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:33pm
 
UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm:
It is up to the researcher to decide which model is the most likely accurate forecast.


Seeing as weather models are only good for 7-10 days and climate models have shown no propensity for forecast, use them at your own risk.

UnSubRocky wrote on Apr 25th, 2023 at 5:18pm:
But don't "tsk, tsk" the Bureau just because you don't want to call it a strong El Nino.


The Bureau have said NOTHING about a strong El Nino.

"All climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that El Niño thresholds are likely to be approached or exceeded during the southern hemisphere winter. "

Nothing about a SUPER El Nino. So an El Nino is likely, nothing about its strength.
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Re: More from JM's tripe -IPCC
Reply #59 - Apr 26th, 2023 at 12:32pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26th, 2023 at 10:20am:
Dr Strong references the BBC. Have to go out now, but I will search the BBC for their article and for the paper that sparked the article.

We see tho, that AGW is real—it is not the sun doing this because the sun left the mid century maximum in the 1980s and we have kept on warming.

Not even a GSM of Maunder scale would do more than put a blip on the temperature record.


Poor JM doesn't realise the differing properties of air and water. Water heats and cools much more slowly. Roll Eyes

He still hasn't answered the question of what happens when the Sun goes dark, as he insists it has no bearing on weather or climate. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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