greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 5
th, 2023 at 12:49pm:
There has been a “staggering rise” in the number of extreme weather events over the past 20 years, driven largely by rising global temperatures and other climatic changes, according to a new report from the United Nations.
Not according to the IPCC- the Physical Science basis. -
"Floods - In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence because of a limited number of studies and differences in the results of these studies, and large modelling uncertainties.
IPCC AR6 WG1 11.5.4
Droughts - There is medium confidence in the ability of ESMs to simulate trends and anomalies in precipitation deficits and AED, and also medium confidence in the ability of ESMs and hydrological models to simulate trends and anomalies in soil moisture and streamflow deficits, on global and regional scales
IPCC AR6 WG1 11.6.3.6
Cyclones - There is low confidence in most reported long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in TC frequency- or intensity-based metrics due to changes in the technology used to collect the best-track data.
IPCC AR6 WG1 11.7.1.2"
So give us a list of these extreme weather events that are beyond assumption.
For the rest it is the models. Of course they have not been initialised, they have no start point as we really DON'T know the weather back to 1850 or 1870. For instance Sea Surface Temperatures, for the Southern Hemisphere, were not reliable before the Argo Buoys in the 1990's. And the Southern Hemisphere oceans make up most of the world's oceans.