In this blog, we revisit the topic and look at whether, among the myriad of facts, figures and proclamations, the hype has died down, or whether it’s genuinely progressing as a key element in the path towards net zero.




Well, just how big is the demand for hydrogen? The answer to this isn’t straightforward, as there are many different estimates about the future demand profile.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that to move the world towards net zero, global hydrogen demand will need to double from ~94Mt in 2021 to over ~180Mt by 2030[1]. In Europe, it’s estimated that more than a six-fold increase in hydrogen power from 300Twh to over 1,900Twh will be required by 2050[2].

Estimates of demand growth are arguably legitimised by the current pipeline for electrolysers, the key supply side technology that transforms electricity and water into green hydrogen. According to analysis from Aurora, the global electrolyser pipeline is currently 957GW, with 202GW scheduled to be operational by 2030[3].This includes early-stage projects (most of which probably won’t reach operation or final investment decision), but as a simple example highlights the scale of interest, as there’s only ~300MW of electrolyser capacity today. The amount of renewables required would also be massive, with the total pipeline needing to consume power roughly equivalent to current renewable output globally[4]. Moreover, year-on-year, electrolyser manufacturing capacity has doubled to almost 8GW annually, demonstrating how fast the industry is moving[5].