tickleandrose
|
Unlike others, I am going to look at this conflict in a more objective manner, from information that is only generally available us - normal kind. At the moment, Israel have amassed some 300 thousand troops. Of which, from different reporting agencies, around 1/3 regular and 2/3 reservists.
In terms of reservists, currently they have weapons, supplies and funding issues. And even as recent as May 2023, there had being a revolt to serve due to planned changes to its judiciary process. And those troops really has not seen any hard combat over the recent decade really.
Out of the regulars which numbers around may be 100 thousand. Those of you in the ADF would understand, that about 2/3s are support troops (e.g transport, cooks, cleaners, signals, cyber warfare's etc etc). 1/3 - about 30000 is probably what they called front line infantry. And of that 10000, one would expect about an elite core group of 4 to 5 thousand experienced soldiers and veterans who has the experience of taking on Hamas in close quarter combat city warfare.
And so... the determination of this conflict will come down to these few thousand men.
If Israel is able to effectively, and quickly destroy Hamas with these elite group, then it will earn the right to exit without challenge for another 4 to 5 decades.
If Hamas is able to slow down Israel, and wittle down those elite group, then the other players who is waiting now... like Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and even Türkiye, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia may all join in in their own ways. Then this conflict would be long lasting and more devastating.
|