Scientists from NASA believe that the current changes in Earth’s climate cannot be primarily attributed to the solar cycle and its associated short-term variations in irradiance. One reason is that, over the course of the cycle, the Sun’s energy output only varies by up to 0.15%, which is less than what would be required to drive the shift in temperature that we observe. Additionally, there is no convincing evidence that the 11-year cycle is reflected in any climate features that are not related to the stratosphere, such as surface temperatures, rainfall, or wind patterns. . . .

The majority of the last 35 years of space-based observations have not detected significant variations in the Sun’s energy output. Nevertheless, while examining climate change, scientists take into account all the factors they can, including solar variations. According to these projections, a modest drop in  solar irradiance over the past 35 years would have resulted in a slight cooling of the climate over this time, but only in the absence of additional climate-altering factors.

The concept that variations in the Sun constitute a significant driver behind the current climate change is likewise not supported by the physics of the situation. The high atmosphere of Earth is most affected by the Sun’s irradiance, whereas the lower atmosphere protects Earth from the added heat. It would be reasonable to anticipate that the higher atmosphere would warm up more if the Sun were the primary driver of Earth’s warming. As opposed to this, observations reveal that the high atmosphere is becoming colder while the lower atmosphere is becoming hotter. Instead, this closely resembles the alterations brought on by a rise in carbon dioxide.