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Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream (Read 10295 times)
Brian Ross
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #135 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:11pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 12:38pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 14th, 2024 at 9:44pm:
None of those is operational as yet, Lee.


What part of operational 2025 didn't you understand?  And you still can't provide a source for reliable energy. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Don't you think 70 years after nuclear tests, we have that data? How long do you think? 1,000 years? Roll Eyes


A figure of 24,000 years has been mentioned as the half life of Uranium waste. I reckon that would be a fair number to work on, Lee.  You seem to think 70 years is a long time.  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Brian Ross
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #136 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:33pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 12:46pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 10:45am:


So have a look at the CSIRO's CostGen 23-24. Table B.9 Column C, to be specific.

It shows Wind and solar 100% efficient. Nuclear 30% efficient.

Do you agree with those figures? I will even give the url again.

https://www.csiro.au/-/media/Energy/GenCost/GenCost2023-24Consultdraft_20231219-...

I provided it to phil, he has gone quiet since. You?


Interesting.  Have you read the full report?  Then you should realise that the CSIRO has mentioned many caveats to the deployment of a nuclear SMR project.  Perhaps most interestingly is the earliest deployment date - 2038.  Then there is the costs being appreciably higher than for Photo-voltaic or Wind generation.  Factors which you have failed to mention or it appears understand.  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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lee
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #137 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:53pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:33pm:
Perhaps most interestingly is the earliest deployment date - 2038. 


And yet that Table says 3 years.  Wink

Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:33pm:
Then there is the costs being appreciably higher than for Photo-voltaic or Wind generation.


Uranium mined in Australia will be far cheaper than replacing Solar panels and wind turbines. They have a maximum life of 25 years apparently, although offshore ones probably a lot less due to corrosion. Nuclear at least a 75 year lifetime.
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #138 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:53pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:33pm:
Perhaps most interestingly is the earliest deployment date - 2038. 


And yet that Table says 3 years.  Wink


As I expected you haven't read the full report.  2038 is the projected deployment for an SMR in Australia if a policy to do so is adopted today, Lee.  You really need to take into the full picture rather than just a chart.  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Quote:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 1:33pm:
Then there is the costs being appreciably higher than for Photo-voltaic or Wind generation.


Uranium mined in Australia will be far cheaper than replacing Solar panels and wind turbines. They have a maximum life of 25 years apparently, although offshore ones probably a lot less due to corrosion. Nuclear at least a 75 year lifetime.


Still avoiding the fuller picture.  Australia does not enrich it's own Uranium.  It sends it overseas.  75 years is a drop in the ocean.  Photo-voltaics and wind effectively last forever, they just need replacing when they wear out. Tsk, tsk, tsk...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #139 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:19pm
 
Here is a balanced article that looks at both sides of the debate!!!

Quote:
Explainer: What is a small modular nuclear reactor?

As our energy systems focus more on renewables, and coal and oil are phased out, there’s been increasing talk about nuclear power – specifically about “small modular reactors”.

So, what exactly is a small modular reactor? Cosmos explains.

What is a small modular reactor?

A small modular reactor, or SMR, is a nuclear reactor, generally with a capacity of 300 megawatts (MW) or less.

For comparison, the smallest conventional nuclear reactors at present are at least 400 MW, and most are over 1000 MW.

The “modular” part refers to the construction of the reactors: they’re designed to be made in factories, ready for transportation to their sites. Modules could also be added once the reactor is running, if more energy is needed.

At the moment, there are two SMRs in operation: one 70 MW “floating” reactor on a barge in northeastern Russia, and one 200 MW high temperature gas reactor in northeastern China.

While the two SMRs currently operating took about a decade to build, ANSTO estimates that SMRs could take 3-5 years to construct. SMRs in Canada and the US, both already nuclear nations, are expected to come online by 2028 and 2029 at the earliest. Australia could expect to take years longer to do things like get community support and build approval and environmental impact plans.

“The other problem the industry has had is that they keep coming up with new designs, rather than having a learning curve, which gradually improves the economics,” says Lowe.

“All of the three [conventional nuclear power stations] being built in Western Europe at the moment are all one-off, and they’re all years behind schedule, and billions over budget.”

But Irwin thinks that the skillset demanded by AUKUS could open up a new industry for Australia.

“We’ve got an opportunity to manufacture SMRs in Australia, for our region. We could supply ourselves, but also our position in this region would be very good for a manufacturing centre for SMRs.”

Lowe disagrees, saying that while nuclear might make sense for other countries, it’s not necessary in Australia.

“I’ve seen studies that show that almost everywhere, getting to 80% renewables is pretty straightforward. But the last 20% is difficult in countries that don’t have the sort of solar and wind resources we do, and have larger populations, so greater demand for energy,” says Lowe.

“There will be countries, I think, that have to consider nuclear, but we’re fortunately not in that position.”


Smiley Smiley Smiley

https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/energy/smrs-nuclear-australia/#:~:text=A%2...
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lee
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #140 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:23pm
 
philperth2010 wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:19pm:
“I’ve seen studies that show that almost everywhere, getting to 80% renewables is pretty straightforward.

Well Germany has enough wind to theoretically drive their grid, but they can't do it. And that's with overbuilding.
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lee
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #141 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:24pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm:
As I expected you haven't read the full report.


Then why do they say three years? Roll Eyes

You missed this bit - "Regardless of whether this date is accurate, and
there remains a high degree of uncertainty, continuing to apply the 2030 date to the presentation of GenCost nuclear SMR cost data is no longer appropriate –"
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #142 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:07pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:24pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm:
As I expected you haven't read the full report.


Then why do they say three years? Roll Eyes

You missed this bit - "Regardless of whether this date is accurate, and
there remains a high degree of uncertainty, continuing to apply the 2030 date to the presentation of GenCost nuclear SMR cost data is no longer appropriate –"


Quote:
12.4.5 Timing of deployment in Australia

Commencing from the GenCost 2020-21 report, nuclear SMR capital costs were only reported from 2030. This was due to advice from stakeholders that nuclear SMR costs before 2030 were irrelevant for Australia because before that date there is no prospect of an Australian project (allowing 10 years from the time of that discussion). This date has not been revised for several years. However, in 2023 a senate committee for the Environment and Other Legislation Amendment (Removing Nuclear Energy Prohibitions) Bill 2022 heard evidence about nuclear SMR development completion times. The view from regulators was that it would be around 15 years to first production from a decision to build nuclear SMR in Australia, emphasising the time taken to revise regulations7. Even though legislation in the US is more developed, it is interesting to note that had the CFPP proceeded in the US it would have taken 15 years from its formal launch8 to complete full operation in 2030 as planned.

This new information on deployment timing suggests that if a decision to pursue a nuclear SMR project in Australia were taken today, with political support for the required legislative changes, then the first full operation would be in 2038. Regardless of whether this date is accurate, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty, continuing to apply the 2030 date to the presentation of GenCost nuclear SMR cost data is no longer appropriate – that is, Australia is very unlikely to see a project that early. However, rather than extending our previous approach to exclude data before 2038, this report has reverted to showing the full timeline of nuclear SMR capital costs but with this added commentary on timing.

[Source]
(Emphasis added)

Read the full report, Lee, it will demolish a great deal of what you have claimed.  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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lee
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #143 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:11pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm:
Australia does not enrich it's own Uranium.


And Australia has no ability? Wink

Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm:
Photo-voltaics and wind effectively last forever, they just need replacing when they wear out


They are all made using fossil fuels. And seeing as China will soon be the only one using fossil fuel, where will they come from? And the cost of replacing them many times? Will they need new footings, or will they be the same size? New footing means new cement. More cement means more CO2, and that is the postulated reasoning for renewables.

Siemens is having troubles and so are others.
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #144 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:14pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:07pm:
Read the full report, Lee, it will demolish a great deal of what you have claimed.


Nope. Have a look yourself. Ten years from now is 2034. Only 4 years outside that guesstimated timeline. So it couldn't be done 4 years earlier? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

But why don't you try and rebut the Table B.9. It is what they wrote.

BTW - your link defers to your computer. Wink
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #145 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:16pm
 
Lee how long would you give companies to quote on the construction of our firs nuclear power plant?

Also, how long do you think the radioactive waste would have to be stored for?
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #146 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:20pm
 
freediver wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:16pm:
Lee how long would you give companies to quote on the construction of our firs nuclear power plant?

With a 3 year build time 7 years. Wink

But you do understand MODULAR? It can be built offsite in a complex and 2 or 3 could be on the go at once. Wink

freediver wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:16pm:
Also, how long do you think the radioactive waste would have to be stored for?


For however long it takes. Some short periods some 24,000 year periods. But surely you knew that? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Brian Ross
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #147 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:20pm
 
lee wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:11pm:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm:
Australia does not enrich it's own Uranium.


And Australia has no ability? Wink 


Not without a large investment in manufacturing abilities, Lee.  And of course, Electricity.

Quote:
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 2:12pm:
Photo-voltaics and wind effectively last forever, they just need replacing when they wear out


They are all made using fossil fuels. And seeing as China will soon be the only one using fossil fuel, where will they come from? And the cost of replacing them many times? Will they need new footings, or will they be the same size? New footing means new cement. More cement means more CO2, and that is the postulated reasoning for renewables.

Siemens is having troubles and so are others.


You can offset CO^2 production with planting trees, Lee.  You can manufacture things without using fossil fuels.  You seem to be mindset that it must come from either fossil fuels or nuclear and nothing else.  Such childishness such a lack of vision.  Tsk, tsk, tsk...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #148 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:26pm
 
Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:20pm:
Not without a large investment in manufacturing abilities, Lee.  And of course, Electricity.


So not via renewables then. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:20pm:
You can offset CO^2 production with planting trees, Lee.


But you have already razed the land to build solar and wind. They are not conducive to trees. Wink

Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:20pm:
You can manufacture things without using fossil fuels.


Let's see. Solar panels? No you need a steady reliable supply for the semi-conductor junctions. Wind turbine blades? No you need a steady reliable supply to cure the fibreglass resin.

Brian Ross wrote on Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:20pm:
Such childishness such a lack of vision.


So tell us where in this "vision" of yours from whence they come. Wink
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Re: Coalition's 10 Year Nuclear Claim Is A Dream
Reply #149 - Mar 15th, 2024 at 3:26pm
 
Quote:
Some short periods some 24,000 year periods.


24,000 year is the short period. You still have a very large pile of radioactive waste after 24,000 years.

Would you like to have another go at demonstrating you know what you are talking about?

How long do you think the radioactive waste would have to be stored for?
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