Polyphemus wrote on Apr 12^th, 2024 at 12:44pm:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option


In 2003, a military historian, Martin van Creveld, thought that the Second Intifada then in progress threatened Israel's existence.[35] Van Creveld was quoted in David Hirst's The Gun and the Olive Branch (2003) as saying:

    We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force.

Let me quote General Moshe Dayan:

'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world,
but rather the second or third.

The Samson Option:

Hezbollah -
The Iran-backed Lebanese group has an arsenal of an estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles,
all pointed at Israel.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68724691

Hezbollah is one of the most heavily armed, non-state military forces in the world - independent estimates suggest the group has between 20,000 and 50,000 fighters, and many are well-trained and battle-hardened through their participation in the Syrian civil war.

The Iran-backed Lebanese group has an arsenal of an estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.

Yet the experts the BBC spoke to thought it unlikely that the group would launch a major escalation against Israel.

"Hezbollah does not really want to fall into Israel's trap because they realise Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet are desperately trying to expand the war," said Mr Gerges.

"The political future of Benjamin Netanyahu depends on the continuation of the war in Gaza and its escalation into northern fronts with Hezbollah and even with Iran itself."
A 'symbolic' reaction?

Mr Sadrzadeh believes Iran is likely to show a "symbolic" reaction rather than risking a direct war with Israel.

"Iran is an expert in carrying out symbolic attacks like the one in response to the killing of its most important military commander Qasem Soleimani," Sadrzadeh said, referring to a ballistic missile attack by Iran against an Iraqi air base where US troops were stationed - a week after the US assassinated the Iranian general in Baghdad.

Despite Iran's promise of "severe revenge", no US military personnel stationed at the base were killed, and there were reports that the US military had been warned in advance of the incoming missiles.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68795021





44 minutes ago
By Christy Cooney,BBC News


The United States has restricted travel for its employees in Israel amid fears of an attack by Iran.

The US embassy said staff had been told not to travel outside the greater Jerusalem, Tel Aviv or Beersheba areas "out of an abundance of caution".

Iran has vowed to retaliate, blaming Israel for a strike on its consulate in Syria 11 days ago, killing 13 people.

UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron has phoned his Iranian counterpart to urge against further escalation.

Following a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Lord Cameron said he had "made clear... that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict".

"I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence," he said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken to the foreign ministers of China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to argue that further escalation is not in anyone's interest.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/france-warns-against-travel-to-iran...





Today, 1:16 pm

    1

France has warned its citizens to “imperatively refrain from travel in the coming days to Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories,” French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne’s entourage tells AFP.

The recommendation comes amid fears that Iran will launch a strike on Israeli targets in a bid to avenge the April 1 airstrike on an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital of Damascus.

In a statement on X, the French foreign ministry adds that relatives of Iran-based diplomats will return to France and that French civil servants are now banned from conducting any missions in Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories.

Former US ambassador to Yemen.

3 hours ago.

“Hezbollah has a lot of capabilities. They have a lot of missiles, They have a lot of drones.
They have a lot of weapons that they could use.”
Israel fears attacks from Iran and Hezbollah as they could launch an attack that
could "cover all of Israel”,
says former US ambassador to Yemen Gerald Michael Feierstein.

This morning -

only minor attacks from little rockets in Northern Israel -
nearly all stopped by iron dome.