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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #15 - Jun 14^th, 2024 at 12:30pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 14^th, 2024 at 2:08am:

Models doing well predicting temperatures:

Quote:

Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

HOW GOOD ARE THE CLIMATE MODELS? In blue is the average of 40 of the top climate models. The lighter shading shows the range of results. Here is plotted the result for July 2023 - the models seem to be underestimating the surface temperature but its well within the uncertainties.

So if you only pick the top 40 all's good. Until maybe next year and we will have another Top 40. Grin

Of course we can't check the Top 40 is sacrosanct and cannot be named. Wink

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #16 - Jun 18^th, 2024 at 1:10pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 18^th, 2024 at 12:38pm:

Another thing that will happen as AGW heats the globe: more hail falls and bigger hailstones.

Well the BBC says "maybe".

"Rising global temperatures might be causing hailstorms to become more violent, with larger chunks of ice and more intense downpours"

...

"As the planet continues to warm, areas where hailstorms are favoured are likely to shift," says Brimelow. "An area now where sufficient moisture is a limiting factor may become more moist and consequently, hailstorm frequency may increase."

"A combination of observations of changes already taking place and climate modelling has led researchers to conclude that hailstorms will become more frequent in Australia and Europe, but there will be a decrease in East Asia and North America. But they also found that hailstorms will become generally more intense."

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

From the linked study -

"Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070)."

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321.epdf?sharing_token=GY5rAiZioi7yjDII...

direct -

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321

Ah "Novel" modelling. Grin

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 102442 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #17 - Jun 18^th, 2024 at 2:20pm Monk lives too close to Antarctica. he lives in the roaring 40s - (he is at -43 degrees latitude )- the vast circumpolar currents and winds that encircle the world in the Southern ocean. Nowhere else in the world comes close to the harsh climate of the roaring 40s. He lives there with a tropical dog called Socks.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17268 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #18 - Jun 18^th, 2024 at 5:06pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 18^th, 2024 at 4:48pm: lees has a sneer at “models” but that is meaningless. Poor JM. The models have not been calibrated, verified or validated. "but they are good, believe me"
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #19 - Jun 18^th, 2024 at 6:16pm

So after saying stuff about how useless I was he now thanks me. Wink

"Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #35 - Today at 4:02pm Quote
Quote:
The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321

BBC article—worth reading in full:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

Thanks to lees for finding these interesting article supporting my post on hail."

But he still agrees with the "novel modelling approach". Wink

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #20 - Jun 27^th, 2024 at 3:35pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 3:06pm:

We are starting to see “atmospheric rivers” and those result in the dumping of HUGE amounts of rain—a warming planet with warming oceans sees more evaporation followed inevitably by precipitation.

"atmospheric river, any long, narrow, and concentrated horizontal corridor of moisture in Earth’s troposphere. Such formations transport vast amounts of water vapor—at flow rates more than double that of the Amazon River—and heat from tropical regions near the Equator toward the middle and higher latitudes. They serve as the primary source of horizontal water transport in the midlatitudes, providing more than half of the precipitation to coastal areas in parts of Europe, North America, South America, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia and facilitating the movement of more than 90 percent of the world’s moisture from the tropics to the poles. Most atmospheric rivers can be found in the North Pacific, Atlantic, southeastern Pacific, and South Atlantic oceans away from the tropics, and they produce moderate amounts of rain and snow. However, some atmospheric rivers are responsible for extreme precipitation and flooding events that may last up to several days in some regions. An average of four to five atmospheric rivers are active in Earth’s atmosphere at any given time."

https://www.britannica.com/science/atmospheric-river

But somehow we are just starting to see them. Grin

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 102442 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #21 - Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:09pm atmospheric rivers? Climate alarmist talk. How about heavy rain.
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #22 - Jun 27^th, 2024 at 6:59pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:21pm:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/ranking-atmospheric-rivers-new-study-finds-world-o...

"A new study using NASA data shows that a recently developed rating system can provide a consistent global benchmark for tracking these “rivers in the sky.” "

...

"In the new study, scientists built a database of global atmospheric river events from 1980 to 2020, using a computer algorithm to automatically identify tens of thousands of the events in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), a NASA re-analysis of historical atmospheric observations."

So they re-analysed weather, with a model, and found, surprise, surprise, it is worse than we thought. Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:24pm:

Maybe that is why the El Nino last summer was such a wet, cool El Nino?

And nothing to do with huge amounts of water projected by a certain volcano. What goes up, must come down. Wink

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 102442 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #23 - Jun 27^th, 2024 at 7:13pm Thanks Lee - Monk doesn't know.
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #24 - Jun 30^th, 2024 at 2:56pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 10:07am:

Jesus, just as AGW is starting to kick our arses, the US does something really really stupid:

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doct...

What poor JM doesn't understand it only removes the power of unelected bureaucrats the power to "interpret" legislation. It can still be legislated. Power that should never have been given to bureaucrats. Grin

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #25 - Jun 30^th, 2024 at 8:57pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 8:19pm:

Quote:

Abstract
The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), yet estimates of air-sea CO2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi4355

Poor JM - Models all the way down. Models are NOT data. Wink

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #26 - Jul 6^th, 2024 at 3:32pm

Lack of real science posts there backed by links etc to authoritative websites (Nature etc journals, ABC, BBC, NASA/NOAA/Copernicus etc etc) means OzPol is sinking in the SEO rankings so people looking for a discussion board see other boards long before OzPol pops up in the listings on page 13 or so.

THAT is why OzPol is headed down the gurgler—an idiot is in charge of an important MRB. [/quote]

Now the BBC and ABC are authoritative. They only repeat, which doesn't make them authorities on anything. Grin

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17268 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #27 - Jul 7^th, 2024 at 5:26pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:48pm: “Certainly a pretty anomalous event that we’re expecting here, which looks like it will continue through at least midweek,” Asherman said. Now even anomalous events are proof of AGW.
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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 38510 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #28 - Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:23pm Bobby. wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2024 at 1:21pm: Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters. Says the fan of Humpty!!!!
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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 102442 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #29 - Jul 8^th, 2024 at 5:07pm Aussie wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:23pm: Bobby. wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2024 at 1:21pm: Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters. Says the fan of Humpty!!!! Have you got a problem Aussie?
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