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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #45 - Aug 30^th, 2024 at 1:38pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 7:26am:

A shocking new study has made startling revelations about the rise in global temperatures. A team of scientists analysed Pacific Ocean sediments and found that the world can witness up to 14 degrees rise in temperatures, far more than what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted.

From the underlying paper - which didn't even get a guernsey -

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01531-3#Sec2

So precisely ONE model predicted 25C rise. Two models post-1975 show a 1.3C rise and historical show a 5C rise. And they use CMIP6/PMIP4. Grin

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Bobby. Moderator Online Australian Politics Posts: 100777 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #46 - Aug 30^th, 2024 at 3:03pm Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17088 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #47 - Aug 30^th, 2024 at 4:27pm Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 1:52pm: As I knew would happen lees has “refuted” the above paper. No doubt there were lots of Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin and some Wink among the crap lees would have posted. He can't even critique what was posted. Just too funny.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17088 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #48 - Sep 14^th, 2024 at 12:21pm Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 13^th, 2024 at 9:03pm: PubPeer comments: Quote: One possibility is that what the analysis has found is a correlation between temperature and short-term variations in atmospheric CO2. I hate to tell you JM, possibilities are NOT refutation.
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UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Australian Legend Posts: 23980 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #49 - Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:47pm Now "lee" is doing half-court three-pointers.
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UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Australian Legend Posts: 23980 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #50 - Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:48pm Bobby. wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know. Monk missed a decimal point.
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Bobby. Moderator Online Australian Politics Posts: 100777 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #51 - Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:58pm UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:48pm: Bobby. wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know. Monk missed a decimal point. Yet he reckons he's a scientist.
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UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Australian Legend Posts: 23980 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #52 - Sep 14^th, 2024 at 4:04pm Bobby. wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:58pm: UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:48pm: Bobby. wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know. Monk missed a decimal point. Yet he reckons he's a scientist. He knows stuff that you miss. And you guys know stuff that he misses.
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Bobby.

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Re: More from JM
Reply #53 - Sep 15^th, 2024 at 6:32am

Monk has referenced an article which contains a falsehood:

https://www.wionews.com/science/earth-can-get-hotter-by-25-degrees-shocking-new-...

Quote:

Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees, shocking new climate study predicts
New ZealandEdited By: Anamica SinghUpdated: Aug 28, 2024, 09:39 AM IST

The actual paper is here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9

It says:

Quote:

Defining the relationship between the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature is essential for understanding
present environmental changes and modelling future climate trends.
Geologic data can provide critical context, as well as possible analo gues,
for our future. For example, as compared to today’s global
annual temperatures of 14.5°C1, the middle Miocene (ca. 15 million
years ago; Ma)was 18.4°C2–4, equivalent to that predicted for the year
2100 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario5,6. Thus, studying the past 15
million years (Myr) may provide a series of climate analogues relevant
for possible near-future climates.

The actual rise is 4 degrees.

I did a search on the .pdf and there is nothing to back up the claim that
"Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees"

There is another site that also runs with the false story:
https://scitechdaily.com/earths-temperature-could-increase-by-25-degrees-startli...

Quote:

Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees:
Startling New Research Reveals That CO2 Has More Impact Than Previously Thought
By Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchAugust 27, 2024

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #54 - Sep 15^th, 2024 at 1:13pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2024 at 6:23am:

In the Abstract:

Quote:

we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively.

Note: Nowhere do they say that these modelled sensitivities are additive. Indeed how could they when the CO2 is modelled in both. Quite apart from which "13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively" would mean 21.1 °C, not 25 °C per doubling.

And...

"For example, as compared to today’s global annual temperatures of 14.5 °C1, the middle Miocene (ca. 15 million years ago; Ma) was 18.4 °C2,3,4, equivalent to that predicted for the year 2100 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario5,6. "

RCP8.5? Oh noes. Grin

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UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Australian Legend Posts: 23980 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #55 - Sep 15^th, 2024 at 11:09pm Has anyone ever read "Chaos Theory"? JM subscribes to the plausibility of 'absolute chaos' in relation to carbon levels doubling in the near future. He is simply wrong. Without control, chaos implodes.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17088 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #56 - Today at 12:31pm Jovial Monk wrote Today at 7:11am: Re: Record flooding in Europe https://x.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1835397563396096240 Except Scott Duncan doesn't describe the floods as "Records". Flooding disaster unfolding right now in Central Europe."
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