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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #75 - Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:44pm

I missed this one -

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 8^th, 2025 at 6:23am:

The Bureau of Meteorology has not declared a La Niña and instead notes that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently “neutral”“ (neither El Niño nor La Niña), albeit with some indices drifting close to La Niña thresholds. Any unofficial declaration of a La Niña is jumping the gun.

"The most recent value of the Niño3.4 SST index in the central Pacific Ocean to 5 January is −0.83 °C, which meets the La Niña threshold of −0.8 °C."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly...

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #76 - Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:48pm

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 8:50pm:

The threshold has been exceeded for only one year so far, but humanity is nearing the end of what many thought was a ‘safe zone’ as climate change worsens.

Of course he doesn't define "many". Many were the government delegates at Paris 2015 that decided on an aspirational goal of 1.5C. Nothing at all to do with a"safe zone" as was the Nordhaus (economist) 2C prior. So both neither to do with climate science. Climate seance perhaps. Wink

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Bobby. Moderator Online Australian Politics Posts: 106379 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #77 - Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:49pm Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17971 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #78 - Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:55pm Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:49pm: Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler? ?? SST's in the Pacific Nino 3.4 zone yes.
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Bobby. Moderator Online Australian Politics Posts: 106379 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #79 - Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:57pm lee wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:55pm: Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:49pm: Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler? ?? SST's in the Pacific Nino 3.4 zone yes. OK thanks so Monk doesn't know.
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #80 - Jan 12^th, 2025 at 1:14pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 12^th, 2025 at 8:07am:

During 2024, 24% of the Earth’s surface had a locally record warm annual average, including 32% of land areas and 21% of ocean areas. These areas coincided with a number of major population centers. We estimate that 3.3 billion people — 40% of Earth’s population — experienced a locally record warm annual average in 2024. This includes 2/3 of the population of China, and a majority of the populations of Brazil, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mexico, 1/3 of the United States, and much of South and Central America, and Eastern Europe.

None of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024.

"locally record warm annual average"? Seems like a long winded way of saying no local absolute temperature records.

And "(n)one of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024"? Wow they expect a record cold average in one year? Especially after the earth warmed from local average temperatures?

Poor JM seems to be going senile. Wink

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #81 - Jan 13^th, 2025 at 3:45pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 1:35pm:

Quote:

However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability.

https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Exceptional-Warming-1024x56...

And since we don't know all the permutations for climate, which is why they use parameterisations, their guess of 1 in 100 years doesn't stack up. Grin

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17971 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #82 - Jan 13^th, 2025 at 5:07pm "Moved: 'BEST global temperature chart' The contents of this Topic have been moved to this Topic by Jovial Monk" It seems JM is getting shy. I am not allowed access.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17971 Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #83 - Jan 13^th, 2025 at 5:10pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 4:52pm: Fires like those in LA could hit Sydney or Melbourne. How prepared are we? \| David Bowman for the Conversation Read more Now even arsonists are climate.
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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #84 - Jan 14^th, 2025 at 1:21pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 4:13pm:

That is the time we are living in. The study that graphic came from says we are hotter now than any time in the last 120,000 years.

Major studies have been done going back into geologic time—CO2 causes warming.

Read up about the Permian–Triassic extinction that allowed the rise of reptiles, i.e. dinosaurs.

So now the Roman warm period is no more, the Holocene optimum is no more, the MWP is no more, Minoan etc. And Greenland isn't GLOBAL. Wink

And poor JM refuses to look at the sulphur dioxide during the Permian–Triassic extinction. But he knows it was CO2, 'coz he just knows stuff. Wink

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #85 - Jan 17^th, 2025 at 12:53pm

Of course it should be remembered that there was no great data for the ocean prior to the Argo buoys, according to Phil Jones, CRU. As most SH ocean temperatures were 'mostly made up".

SST's? They measure the top "few millimetres" when they used buckets. How to tell that the bucket only went down that far? How about rough weather? Go outside and grab the rail with one hand swing the bucket with the other, pull it up one handed, and you still have that problem of a "few millimetres".

Ant then ships intake in the ships engine rooms. Stokers without shirts shovelling coal because of the heat and the water would not be affected?

Just too funny. Grin

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #86 - Jan 21^st, 2025 at 1:11pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 17^th, 2025 at 5:46pm:

Quote:

Energy Imbalance and Cloud Cover

In order to understand the high rates of warming in 2023 and 2024 it is useful to examine Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). The energy imbalance is the difference between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and how much subsequently escapes back into space as thermal radiation. It is a direct measure of how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth system as a result of changes in greenhouse gases and other factors. As long as the energy imbalance is positive, we can expect the Earth to continue warming.

In the decades since satellites began reliably measuring Earth’s energy imbalance, the values observed in 2023 are the largest on record. This imbalance has subsequently reduced somewhat in 2024.

https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2024-EEI-1024x564.png

Quote:

Spatially, the recent change in Earth’s energy imbalance is concentrated over the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, Europe, and the Southern Ocean. The change in the Southern Ocean is primarily related to record low sea ice cover in recent years. The changes in other ocean basins may be directly related to the reduction in marine sulfur aerosol emissions, which would be expected to allow more sunlight to reach the Earth’s surface.

Strangely there is nothing in the post about cloud cover.

"he IPCC’s theory on GHG caused GW is that: in the upper atmosphere GHGs absorb LW radiation and reflect some of the heat back to earth, like a blanket, in a process called radiative forcing, RF. The RF theory does not need a change in incoming SW radiation and RF would result in a decrease in TOA LW radiation. The IPCC’s RF theory has it’s roots in the assumption that the earths albedo does not change, from the beginning of the IPCC there was no data that said that was not true. Within the last 20 years Dübal and Vahrenholt (5), Loeb et al shows (18), and Goode et al (17) have all shown the albedo does change and it is correlated to global temperature. These studies do not match the IPCC’s RF theory – no or little GHG GW is going on in the 20 years of CERES data. Mapping of cloud cover in Loeb et al shows (18), and Figure 5, location based cloud cover changes inconsistent with uniform distribution of GHGs. Another theory is needed."
...
There is one more source of low RH hot air. Globally the change since 1880 from virgin land to crop/pasture was about 6% of the earths land mass with a slightly higher (cooler) change in albedo (3); but, with unexpected lower moisture and hotter air than the virgin land. The most notable of these changes was the deforestation of the Amazonian rain forest to make crop and pasture land (4). Costa et al (4) showed that despite an increase in albedo from rain forest to crop/pasture the temperature increase, the RH deceased, the cloud cover decreased, and the rain decreased. This is a classic example of psychometric temperature and RH behavior. Combining the UHI and crop/pasture land changes we get 9% of the earth’s land mass producing more hot low RH air than 1700-1880."

https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/04/16/where-have-all-the-clouds-gone-and-why-c...

But what about Sulphur dioxide (SO2)? SO2 is a "GHG", that has a cooling effect. It is also reducing. Reducing SO2 mean less nucleii for the formation of clouds, which increases cloud albedo. That is why there have been calls from scientists to increase SO2.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-27460-7_11

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lee

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Re: More from JM
Reply #87 - Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:52pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:35pm:

Quote:
Pristine ancient forest frozen in time in Rocky Mountains

A melting ice patch in the Rocky Mountains uncovered an ancient forest, and these trees have stories to tell about dynamic landscapes and climate change.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:35pm:

Idiots tell me this shows it was warmer in the MWP. Nope, warmer now than at any time in the Holocene Optimum. Globe is warming up so ice retreats north exposing the remains of old forests etc. With time where the ice was the tundra thaws and bacteria then weeds then trees grow in the new soil and the treeline marches north (or south down here of course.)

Quote:
Beartooth Plateau, which sits at an altitude of over 10,000 feet (3,000 meters), is a barren, tundra-like landscape. But it hasn't always been that way; an ancient forest lies beneath layers of ice.

Cooling temperatures about 5,500 years ago quickly encased this whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forest in ice, preserving the trees in nearly perfect condition. Now, as ice patches frozen for millennia melt due to climate change, researchers are finding clues about what this ancient landscape was once like, and how it was preserved. They detailed their findings Dec. 30, 2024, in the journal PNAS.

"No one had any idea that these patches of ice had been around for thousands of years," David McWethy, an associate professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Montana State University and co-author of the study, told Live Science. "Things looked dramatically different than they do today."

This ancient forest of whitebark pines thrived for centuries at much higher elevations than the same tree species that can be found in the region today. This is because the global climate went through a warm period between the end of the last ice age, about 10,000 years ago, and the time when these whitebark pines died over 5,000 years ago.

A long time for these trees to be buried!

Strangely enough the end of the Holocene was about 5,500 years ago. Not that poor JM will admit it. Wink

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Bobby. Moderator Online Australian Politics Posts: 106379 Melbourne Gender:	Re: More from JM Reply #88 - Jan 28^th, 2025 at 8:28pm lee wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:52pm: Strangely enough the end of the Holocene was about 5,500 years ago. Not that poor JM will admit it. Monk doesn't know.
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