Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters.

Monk is a conman and grifter.
He sells hair tonic down at his local backwater Tasmanian markets. So far, he still has bumfluff for a beard.

Poor JM -

Jovial Monk wrote on May 14^th, 2024 at 6:58pm:


From his paper -

" The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature. An observational estimate of the derivative of the OLR with respect to temperature of 2.93 +/− 0.3 W/m2K is obtained. "

So now CO2 doesn't trap OLR. It is the clouds.

Of course JM doesn't say how it both traps and increases OLWR.

And it even includes the precise graphic.

"This substantial warm bias is identified at global scales over land (Allan et al., 2022) and may be linked to a positive energy imbalance of about 1 W·m−2 in the model's pre-industrial spin-up experiment and underestimation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the pre-industrial control experiment compared to observations (Tatebe et al., 2019).

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.8169

Warm biases? Underestimation of OLR pre-industrial? But the science is settled.

Or another one -

"The greenhouse effect is well-established. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, reduce the amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to space; thus, energy accumulates in the climate system, and the planet warms."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1412190111

Jovial Monk wrote on May 30^th, 2024 at 4:14pm:


So there is no such thing as UHI?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/delhi-population

Or this?

"Record 52.9 degrees Celsius in Delhi's Mungeshpur was 'error in sensor': IMD"

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/national/heat-wave-intensifies-in-north-cent...

or this?

"The Safdarjung weather observatory, which serves as the marker for the entire city, registered a maximum temperature of 46.8 degree Celsius on Wednesday, the highest in 80 years. It was six degrees higher than the normal expected at this time of the year, and the highest that the station has recorded since 1944. But it was substantially lower than the temperature at Mungeshpur, located on the northern outskirts of Delhi, bordering Haryana."

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/at-52-3-degrees-celsius-delhi-rec...

or this? -

"Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows "

https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather...

So poor JM doesn't understand about faulty AWS. Apparently it means it is ok at 52.3 but not ok at 52.9.

"Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju addressed the anomaly in a post on X, stating that the recorded temperature of 52.3 degrees Celsius in Delhi is "very unlikely" and is not yet official. He indicated that senior IMD officials are verifying the data.

"It is not official yet. Temperature of 52.3 °C in Delhi is very unlikely. Our senior officials in IMD have been asked to verify the news report. The official position will be stated soon," Kiren Rijiju said in the post."

https://www.indiatvnews.com/delhi/imd-clarifies-record-52-degrees-celsius-delhi-...

But good enough for JM's purposes.

Poor JM. He can't even verify the blogs he uses.

They said it, it must be true.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 14^th, 2024 at 2:08am:



So if you only pick the top 40 all's good. Until maybe next year and we will have another Top 40.

Of course we can't check the Top 40 is sacrosanct and cannot be named.

Monk lives too close to Antarctica.
he lives in the roaring 40s -  (he is at -43 degrees latitude )-
the vast circumpolar currents and winds that encircle the world in the Southern ocean.
Nowhere else in the world comes close to the harsh climate of the roaring 40s.
He lives there with a tropical dog called Socks.

So after saying stuff about how useless I was he now thanks me.


"Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #35 - Today at 4:02pm Quote
Quote:
The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change


Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.


https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321


BBC article—worth reading in full:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

Thanks to lees for finding these interesting article supporting my post on hail."

But he still agrees with the "novel modelling approach".

atmospheric rivers?

Climate alarmist talk.

How about heavy rain. 

Thanks Lee -

Monk doesn't know.   

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 8:19pm:



Poor JM - Models all the way down. Models are NOT data.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:48pm:



Now even anomalous events are proof of AGW.

Aussie wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:23pm:



Have you got a problem Aussie?

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 24^th, 2024 at 2:48pm:


Poor JM. Doesn't know that Copernicus uses models and not real world temperatures.

Of course, he also doesn't know about intrinsic properties.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 7:18am:


Of course the "accelerated warming" is at the poles. But the Arctic still refuses to enter Al Gore's death spiral, and still exists.

More -

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2024 at 7:46am:


So back to 1900 they use Reynolds ESTIMATED SST's. Estimations are not science, they are best guesses and  can never be data. And then - "The Coral Sea and GBR have experienced a strong warming trend since 1900 (Fig. 1f). January–March SSTAs averaged over the GBR are strongly correlated (ρ = 0.84, P ≪ 0.01) with those in the broader Coral Sea (Fig. 1f), including when the long-term warming trend is removed from both time series (ρ = 0.69, P < 0.01; Supplementary Fig. 4). "

That is before the IPCC say CO2 had any effect. So natural warming started after the LIA. Woopee doo.

And also "The January–March mean SSTs averaged over the five mass bleaching years during the period 2016–2024 are 0.77 °C higher than the 1961–90 January–March averages in both the Coral Sea and the GBR."4

So corals with over 400 million years of climate cycles are sensitive to that small change.

And then he talks about CMIP6 - you know those models that are running way too hot.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 2:18pm:



That's his level of debate. Won't look at the actual papers, just relies on blogs like DeSMOG BLOG. No criticism of anything he posts on his shite site, all's good.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 3:01pm:


Sorry but I have replied, just not in your nonsense, anti-science, model-led site.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 11^th, 2024 at 3:33pm:



Except in the Antarctic. So AGW is not Global.

""Record cold temperatures were observed in our Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) network as well as other locations around the region," said Matthew A. Lazzara of the Antarctic Meteorological Research and Data Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison).

"These phases were marked by new record low temperatures recorded at both staffed and automatic weather stations, spanning East Antarctica, the Ross Ice Shelf, and West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula."

"The highest point, Kunlun Station, recorded its lowest temperature ever observed at -79.4°C, which was about 5°C lower than the monthly average," added Prof. Minghu Ding from State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. "Interestingly, at the same time, record-breaking high temperatures were occurring in South America, which is relatively close to Antarctica." "

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-antarctic-cold-shatter-global-late.html

So if High Temperatures are symptoms of AGW is the reverse true? Or are high temperatures proof of AGW, whilst cold temperatures are merely weather?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2024 at 5:12pm:



Seeing as the IPCC sees no tipping points. No increase in global rainfall, Higher seas? They have been rising for 2,000 years.

Fiercer wildfires? What else do you expect when you don't reduce fuel loads? The total are burnt is actually less.

But for what the IPCC Physical Science Basis actually says see page 90 of chapter 12 with the explanations at the bottom. There is NO CLIMATE CRISIS. Tipping points would infer there is.

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2024 at 12:17pm:



Monk is very pedantic - he only sees the world from his tiny peanut brain.
He needs to stop stealing my environment topics.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 7:26am:


From the underlying paper - which didn't even get a guernsey -



https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01531-3#Sec2

So precisely ONE model predicted 25C rise.  Two models post-1975 show a 1.3C rise and historical show a 5C rise. And they use CMIP6/PMIP4.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 1:52pm:


He can't even critique what was posted. Just too funny.

Now "lee" is doing half-court three-pointers.

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:48pm:



Yet he reckons he's a scientist.   

Monk has referenced an article which contains a falsehood:

https://www.wionews.com/science/earth-can-get-hotter-by-25-degrees-shocking-new-...

Quote:



The actual paper is here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9

It says:

Quote:


The actual rise is 4 degrees.

I did a search on the .pdf and there is nothing to back up the claim that
"Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees"


There is another site that also runs with the false story:
https://scitechdaily.com/earths-temperature-could-increase-by-25-degrees-startli...

Quote:

Has anyone ever read "Chaos Theory"? JM subscribes to the plausibility of 'absolute chaos' in relation to carbon levels doubling in the near future. He is simply wrong.

Without control, chaos implodes.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 20^th, 2024 at 10:06am:



from The Conversation -

"The scientific evidence is now more than sufficient: collective global action is urgently needed to tackle microplastics – and the problem has never been more pressing."

...

"More data is needed on microplastics in human foods such as land-animal products, cereals, grains, fruits, vegetables, beverages, spices, and oils and fats.

The concentrations of microplastics in foods vary widely – which means exposure levels in humans around the world also varies. However, some estimates, such as humans ingesting a credit card’s worth of plastic every week, are gross overstatements. "

It means send more money.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 27^th, 2024 at 9:02pm:


And?

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 27^th, 2024 at 9:02pm:


Actually the prediction was that they would be more intense.

"There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurrican...

And they didn't have named storms before 1950.