Frank
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Trump wants the war between Russia and Ukraine to stop. The deal he has in mind is obvious. Russia gets to keep the Ukrainian territory it has gained and Ukraine gets to keep its nation, gets security guarantees and fighting ends.
Trump said he could end the war in one day. That’s ridiculous. That’s the side of Trump that is at times absurd. And yet he seems to have such simpatico with his supporters that they know to take him seriously but not literally. When, during the campaign, Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he said: “I think long before I take the presidency – it’s January 20 – but long before that, I think we can work out something that’s good for both sides.”
Though a step back from ending the war in one day, even this seems extremely unrealistic. Trump considers himself the master of the deal. He would presumably say to Vladimir Putin: make this deal, which gives you a huge chunk of territory, or I’ll invite Ukraine into NATO. And he presumably says to Zelensky, make this deal or I’ll cut off aid.
In principle, it’s a bad deal, grievously unfair to Ukraine, and rewards Russia for aggression. But Ukraine truly is Biden’s failure. Biden failed to deter Putin. US deterrence was in decline everywhere under Biden. Biden also gave Ukraine only enough weapons to avoid defeat, not to pursue victory, and even now places all manner of restriction on Ukraine’s use of weapons. If America was going to encourage Ukraine to fight, it should have supplied it properly. Instead it followed a policy of multi-directional, self-defeating, strategic timidity.
The situation has become nearly unsustainable politically. The deal Trump has in mind is unfair to Ukraine, but it’s the only plausible deal. Trump has a case at another level. Ukraine is surely of more immediate importance to Europe than to the US. The EU, plus Britain, is a bigger economy all together than the US. Even if Trump reduced or removed aid to Ukraine, there’s no reason the Europeans couldn’t supply Ukraine themselves – except that the Europeans, like most US allies, certainly including Australia, are addicted to free-riding on the Americans.
Trump himself will not want to hand Putin an unequivocal victory. But neither is it credible that he would go on endlessly paying for the war. Greg Sheridan
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