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The pointy end of AGW. (Read 4015 times)
Jovial Monk
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #30 - Jun 14th, 2024 at 2:08am
 
Models doing well predicting temperatures:

Quote:
Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h

HOW GOOD ARE THE CLIMATE MODELS? In blue is the average of 40 of the top climate models. The lighter shading shows the range of results. Here is plotted the result for July 2023 - the models seem to be underestimating the surface temperature but its well within the uncertainties.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #31 - Jun 14th, 2024 at 12:44pm
 
AGW keeps powering on:

Quote:
Keith Strong@drkstrong·9h

12 IN A ROW! May 2024 was the hottest May on record, making 12 consecutive months of record setting global average temperatures. It set new record highs for land, ocean, northern and southern hemispheres. It is now more likely than not that 2024 will be the hottest year on record
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Jovial Monk
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #32 - Jun 18th, 2024 at 12:38pm
 
Another thing that will happen as AGW heats the globe: more hail falls and bigger hailstones. This might sound counterintuitive, and conmen like DuByne have used large hailstones as “proof” of the mythical Grand Solar Minimum.

I will show why in a minute but maybe you should be checking up on hail insurance?

Hail is frozen water—so how will more and more warming create more and bigger hail?

Hail forms when updrafts in thunderstorms send moist warm air high up into the atmosphere where it is cold and the moisture condenses, freezes, accretes more layers of ice, merges with adjoining hailstones, starts falling, adding ice and merging until it reaches cloud level.

If we were cooling hail would be pretty scarce and hail stones tiny. That is not the case: we are warming and consequently more hail falls and hail stones are getting bigger.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #33 - Jun 18th, 2024 at 4:48pm
 
LOL, poor old desperate lees tries to disprove my post about hail.

Oopsies, areas where hail falls/doesn’t fall may shift but nothing really contradictory was found. lees has a sneer at “models” but that is meaningless.

The idiot joins in repeating irrelevant and incorrect crap he had already posted here. Gee, I do wish there was SOME moderation here!


So it might pay to check your insurance for hail damage, especially if you have solar panels etc.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #34 - Jun 18th, 2024 at 5:46pm
 
(Disregard)
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #35 - Jun 18th, 2024 at 6:02pm
 
Quote:
The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change


Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.


https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321


BBC article—worth reading in full:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

Thanks to lees for finding these interesting article supporting my post on hail.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #36 - Jun 20th, 2024 at 9:28pm
 
It is getting
HOT!


Dr K Strong:
Quote:
48m
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OUTPACING LOWS: Month to date the Earth has set over 6100 new daily record highs vs only 1200 lows. Monthly records are 195 to 30 and all-time record break in favor of highs by 25 to 0. Welcome to the new normal.


https://x.com/drkstrong/status/1803739076224238020


From: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #37 - Jun 20th, 2024 at 10:10pm
 
Quote:
India reports over 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases over summer


NEW DELHI/GUWAHATI, June 19 (Reuters) - India recorded more than 40,000 suspected heatstroke cases this summer as a prolonged heatwave killed more than 100 people across the country, while parts of its northeast grappled with floods from heavy rain, authorities said.
Billions across Asia are grappling with extreme heat this summer in a trend scientists say has been worsened by human-driven climate change, with temperatures in north India soaring to almost 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) in one of the longest heatwave spells recorded.


https://www.reuters.com/world/india/unrelenting-heatwave-kills-five-indian-capit...

Middle East and North Africa also very hot, 155 Haj pilgrims killed by the heat in the city of Mecca.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #38 - Jun 20th, 2024 at 10:14pm
 
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #39 - Jun 25th, 2024 at 1:35am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 20th, 2024 at 10:10pm:
Middle East and North Africa also very hot, 155 Haj pilgrims killed by the heat in the city of Mecca.


Mecca's average June and July maximum temperatures are 43°C. This is typical. Given the arduous nature of the pilgrimage to Mecca, 155 deaths out of 1,800,000+ attendees does not seem like that much.

I bet there would be scores of people dead in Australia if we had 1.8 million people visit Perth and its surrounds for a week during a heat wave.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #40 - Jun 25th, 2024 at 3:29am
 
These temperatures are too early.

Pilgrims died from the heat—likely not enough water provided.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #41 - Jun 25th, 2024 at 8:34am
 
Quote:
Heat waves are hitting the deep ocean floor, with potentially catastrophic results


Heat waves are reaching the bottoms of Earth's oceans, and that could be a big problem for the creatures that live there.



Heatwaves bleach coral reefs and if protracted will kill the coral, but critters live on/near the bottom of the seas too!

Quote:
It's long been known that spikes in surface water temperature can devastate an ocean's ecosystem. For example, from 2013 to 2016, the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean along the North American coastline warmed up in a phenomenon dubbed "the blob," which led to the deaths of 1 million seabirds because their main meal source (fish) had been severely impacted.

But something similar is percolating in deeper waters. . . .

"We're seeing [bottom] marine heat waves happening around Australia and in places like the Mediterranean and Tasmanian seas. This is not something that's unique to North America."

The ocean has absorbed approximately 90% of the excess heat from global warming. This has led to an increase of about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) over the past 100 years, according to NASA. . . .scientists had no clear picture of how the ocean depths responded when surface temperatures spiked.

To understand how atmospheric temperature changes were affecting the ocean bottom, scientists used existing measurements to simulate atmospheric conditions and ocean currents to "fill in the blanks" for difficult-to-access seafloor ecosystems. These ecosystems are often populated by lobsters, scallops, flounder, cod, and other commercially fished creatures, according to the statement.


Still don’t have a good idea of how the deep heats up.

https://www.livescience.com/heat-waves-are-hitting-the-deep-ocean-floor-with-pot...

Paper article is based on:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36567-0

Quote:
Abstract


Recently, there has been substantial effort to understand the fundamental characteristics of warm ocean temperature extremes—known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, MHW research has primarily focused on the surface signature of these events. While surface MHWs (SMHW) can have dramatic impacts on marine ecosystems, extreme warming along the seafloor can also have significant biological outcomes. In this study, we use a high-resolution (~8 km) ocean reanalysis to broadly assess bottom marine heatwaves (BMHW) along the continental shelves of North America. We find that BMHW intensity and duration varies strongly with bottom depth, with typical intensities ranging from ~0.5 °C–3 °C. Further, BMHWs can be more intense and persist longer than SMHWs. While BMHWs and SMHWs often co-occur, BMHWs can also exist without a SMHW. Deeper regions in which the mixed layer does not typically reach the seafloor exhibit less synchronicity between BMHWs and SMHWs.

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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #42 - Jun 25th, 2024 at 11:49am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 25th, 2024 at 3:29am:
These temperatures are too early.

Pilgrims died from the heat—likely not enough water provided.


It is June -- the northern hemisphere's summer. The pilgrims that died are probably not locals. One of them was an Australian. Saudis and people from the Arab Gulf region are accustomed to hot weather. I would assume that the ones that died are either from cooler regions, or there was an issue about water being distributed.

India does get hot. But so too Australia. When I spoke to some climate alarmists about how my town has not broken its top temperature in over 30 years, their response was "weather events are not climate change". So, I like to throw those words back in their faces.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #43 - Jun 25th, 2024 at 11:57am
 
There is a thermocline in the ocean at around 200 metres. Average temperatures might only drop a couple of degrees at that point. But the water temperature drops to 20°C by 500 metres. Water is 12°C at 750 metres below sea level. 6°C at 1000 metres below sea level.

Yes, there may be a concern about coral bleaching at 200 metres below sea level. But below that, the sun is not a direct factor on ocean temperature.
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Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #44 - Jun 25th, 2024 at 1:14pm
 
Paper didn’t talk about the sun and there could be a bottom heatwave without a top heatwave. But in several places there are “heatwaves” in deep seas.

There are two levels of ocean heating, BTW:

1. 0–700 metres is the warmest

2. 700–2000 metres

As both these layers warm the oceans expand so sea levels rise.

The paper talked of heating in the lower layers.
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