End of an era.
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So it may be la fin d'un ère in more than a Macronian sense. De Gaulle's Fifth Republic was designed to straitjacket French politics into a narrow range of alternating bland left-of-centre/right-of-centre choices. Instead, under the dinky boy, the French centre has utterly imploded. In the village I chance to know best ...
(on a seventy-four per cent turnout) forty-seven per cent voted for the "far right" and another twenty-six per cent for the hard left; that doesn't leave a lot for the so-called "mainstream" parties.What will the next week bring? The French establishment is urging "unity" against the Rassemblement National, the elites being so oblivious they think it's still 2002 when Chirac faced off against Marine's dad and the masses could be cajoled to "vote for the crook not the fascist". Mme Le Pen is not her father, and Macron is loathed by two-thirds of the electorate on a scale unknown to the merely conventionally sleazy Chirac. Legions of leftie youth, meanwhile, reacted to last night's results in the traditional manner - doing their bit to "save democracy" by smashing up cellphone shops:
That'll put a dent in some storefronts, but not in Mme Le Pen's vote. The difference between now and 2002 is the much more widespread sense that France itself is unravelling - twelve-year-old girls are kidnapped and gang-raped; Mohamed Amra and the assassination team that sprang him from prison are still at large; a few hours before polling stations opened, "gang" members shot up a wedding in Lorraine, killing one man and wounding a pregnant woman.. Scenes of French cities aflame will not do anything to diminish the rationale for the Rassemblement National. Au contraire...
Still, how Round Two will go is a tough call because nothing like it has happened before. The Fifth Republic's voting system was created to ensure the first round eliminated all but Tweedleleft and Tweedleright. Instead, the high turnout has resulted in a record number of soi-disant "triangulaires" - constituencies in which a third-placed party (in this case Macron's) did well enough to qualify for the runoff. In 2017, there was just one "triangulaire"; in 2022, there were eight; on Sunday there will be over three hundred. In the coming days, there will be a lot of horse-trading between the "centre" and the "left" to reduce the variables. However, down at street level, there are enough lefties who'd rather vote for Le Pen than Macron, and a few centrists who'd rather vote for Le Pen than Mélenchon.
Conversely, the system is supposed to make it difficult to win outright in the first round. Yet Mme Le Pen and some thirty-six of her colleagues did so. For purposes of comparison, at the dawn of the Macron era, in 2017, RN eventually won eight seats in the National Assembly. Last night they won five times as many on the first ballot.
So something is approaching critical mass. On the current numbers, the "far right" would likely fall just a handful shy of a majority (289 seats) in the new parliament. Could the next seven days put them over the finish line? Certainly - especially if the most visible signs of the "united" resistance are the despised globalist tinpot and the anarchist youth.
Nevertheless, a more cautious person might bet on Mme Le Pen coming up just a wee bit short - if only because all the forces of the French elites are determined to stop her.
Steyn
Similarly, I am worried about what swifty the Dems are going to pull THIS TIME in the US.