Australian Politics Forum - The Keys to the White House

Frank

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #150 - Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:55pm

Frank wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:50pm:

Karnal wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 8:45pm:

Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it?

What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue?

Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies?

Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social security etc for the latter, not the former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

But this is too hard for grinning pakis and creepy pervs.

Why?

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #151 - Jul 31^st, 2024 at 5:02pm

Frank wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:50pm:

Karnal wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 8:45pm:

Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it?

What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue?

Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies?

Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social s security etc for the latter, not th ed former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

How many illegal immigrants currently working at Mar-a-Lago?

I'm curious.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #152 - Aug 1^st, 2024 at 11:23am

Boiling down Lichtman's 13 keys - three major themes determine how Americans will vote in any given election:

1 The perceived unity, strength and integrity of the incumbent party,
2. The perceived strength of the US economy, and
3. The perceived strength and success of the US military.

A minor theme is the tendency to grant two terms to any party in power.

The jousting between candidates and media scuttlebutt is all just theatrics for public entertainment.

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Karnal

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #153 - Aug 1^st, 2024 at 11:56am

MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 3:39pm:

The keys remain at 8-5.

Harris is still tentatively predicted to win and is increasingly more likely to win by a landslide.

Trump's 20 million illegals story is, of course, total horseshit. There aren't even 20 million illegal immigrants estimated to be in the United States after an accumulation of them over decades.

He will not succeed in turning the 'no social unrest' key with the border issue - hence his claims that a Harris administration plans to let all illegal immigrants who commit capital crimes out of jail.

Ee-gad, she plans to do that?

Well, two can play at that game, Meister. Mr Trump plans to let the Proud Boys and Jan 6 hostages out of jail on Day 1.

Fair's fair, no? Personally, I can't see what's wrong with a bit of social unrest. It works for the leftards, who just put a bulls eye on Mr Trump. I think we all know what happened next, Meister.

They all do it, no?

VENGEANCE !!!

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Karnal

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #154 - Aug 1^st, 2024 at 12:41pm

Frank wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 4:50pm:

Karnal wrote on Jul 30^th, 2024 at 8:45pm:

Oh, I see. So they don't steal your silly old jobs, is it?

What's the matter, old boy, cat got your tongue?

Can't even be bothered Googling your Heritage Foundation's report on trafficking kiddies?

Well, as even the dumbest, dimmest 12 year old would instantly realise, illegal immigrants are cheaper to employ than locals as you have to pay taxes and social s security etc for the latter, not th ed former. So a job for an illegal is no job for a local, who can then go on the dole.

I see. So if the big fella gets rid of the illegals, that means the locals have to go get illegal jobs, saving state unemployment insurers a packet.

A win-win, no?

Still, I wonder if the dumbest, dimmest 12 year olds would be willing to work in jobs without health, personal injury or unemployment insurance. And I wonder if they know that workers employed in illegal jobs aren't even eligible for the dole.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment_insurance_in_the_United_States

It does make one wonder, dear boy, but if I were you, I'd try to get my story straight. You want to stop illegal immigration to save all those poor, huddled masses being exploited by meanie illegal employers. Or you want to stop illegal immigration so the cheapskates can target locals instead.

Or, as an alternative, you could scrap all that and just get real. You don't care about working conditions or unemployment at all. You want to stop illegal immigration because they're tinted.

Up for it?

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #155 - Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 6:54am

With Biden clearly using his last 3 months working towards holding key 11 (Major foreign or military success), the question about Democrats' electoral success is: will they win in a landslide, or will there also be a complete rout of the Republican party?

If Biden delivers on key 11, making the keys 9-4 in the Democrats' favour, or even pull off holding key 10 (No foreign or military failure), making it 10-3, they could win every state.

Whatever the outcome of keys 10 and 11, and beyond the near certainty that they will hold 8 of the keys, the Democrats still have a secret weapon working in their favour: Donald Trump himself.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #156 - Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 8:20am

Biden's recent major foreign successes:

El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world.

American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #157 - Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 3:00pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 8:20am:

Biden's recent major foreign successes:

El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world.

American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War.

Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #158 - Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 4:22pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 3:00pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 8:20am:

Biden's recent major foreign successes:

El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world.

American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War.

Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

Yep.

Some great work by Biden.

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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 44366 Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #159 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 12:00pm 5 and 6 are in trouble: YouGov Poll: 63% Say Economy Is Going Badly Under Biden-Harris Admin
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Frank

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #160 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 12:02pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 3:00pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 8:20am:

Biden's recent major foreign successes:

El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world.

American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War.

Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

Not a major foreign policy success. Barely registered, now forgotten. Iran attacking Israel is far, far bigger an issue and a massive foreign policy failure.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #161 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 1:12pm

It pays to understand a golden rule of Lichtman's keys: Polls do not turn keys except in one instance: Key 4 - the 'No Third Party' key.

Given there is no other way to determine the threat to the incumbent party by a third party except after an election, polls are the only tool to assess any possible threat.

Lichtman channels Eisenhower's Industrial-Military - (Congressional) Complex speech with his Pollster-Media-Political 'Iron Triangle'.

Pollsters are paid enormously well during an election cycle so they have a vested financial interest in the people's fixation on them for the duration of an election process. The media is also similarly invested.

Politicians rely on polls and the media to hone their message or to influence their perceived political efficacy, and so they tend to encourage popular fixation on polls.

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MeisterEckhart Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11723 Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #162 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:07pm Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER).
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Frank

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #163 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:11pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 1:12pm:

It pays to understand a golden rule of Lichtman's keys: Polls do not turn keys except in one instance: Key 4 - the 'No Third Party' key.

Given there is no other way to determine the threat to the incumbent party by a third party except after an election, polls are the only tool to assess any possible threat.

Lichtman channels Eisenhower's Industrial-Military - (Congressional) Complex speech with his Pollster-Media-Political 'Iron Triangle'.

Pollsters are paid enormously well during an election cycle so they have a vested financial interest in the people's fixation on them for the duration of an election process. The media is also similarly invested.

Politicians rely on polls and the media to hone their message or to influence their perceived political efficacy, and so they tend to encourage popular fixation on polls.

The long and the short of it: the economy is not a positive for Kackela the Mamela.

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Frank Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 44366 Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #164 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:12pm MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:07pm: Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER). No - it's determined by how people see it and live it, regardless of what the NBER or the Ministry of Truth say.
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