Australian Politics Forum - The Keys to the White House

aquascoot

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #165 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:13pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 4:22pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 3:00pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 8:20am:

Biden's recent major foreign successes:

El Mayo arrested in Texas - the inheritor of El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel - the largest crime cartel in the world.

American journalists held in a Rissian gulag released through US pressure for a prisoner swap, with the help of a Biden Administration-led cobbling together of European allies: Germany, Slovenia and Turkey.

Apparently, the prisoner exchange was the largest since the Cold War.

Lichtman has suggested that if this remains in the public mind, it will turn key-11 in favour of the Democrats, lifting the key count to 9-4.

Yep.

Some great work by Biden.

crap

the US gave back murderers , spies and a guy who used fake credit cards to rip off 160 million (repatriated to russia)

russia gave back a couple of journalists

biden has been a foreign policy failure

got america into 2 wars

gave iran money and removed sanctions

trump , on the other hand, killed sulimani and no wars started on his watch

and harris will be a warmonger as well, no doubt, being a paid for democrat Roll Eyes

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #166 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 4:30pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:07pm:

Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER).

Exactly.

Polls and emotions aren't a consideration when it comes to the keys.

When does the professor give his prediction, by the way?

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #167 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 5:27pm

Lichtman often hears from over-emotional know-nothings demanding he change his process of assessing his keys.

His answer is always the same, 'feel free to make up your own predictive process, but, if you use my processes, you use my rules which have resulted in a predictive success of 100%'.

There are some keys he has not made a final call on yet:

Key 4 - no third party is at LIKELY TRUE with RFK jr barely reaching 3% in polling assessment. To turn the key, the third party needs to poll 10% or more.

Keys 5 and 8 are also LIKELY TRUE.

Key 10 - No foreign or military failure - is LIKELY FALSE

Key 11 - Major foreign or military success - is at TBD. He has yet to declare this key.

To date, the FALSE key total stands at best 4, at worst 5. A total of 6 or more will indicate a loss for the incumbent party.

Lichtman's final assessment will be made within the next 2 weeks.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #168 - Aug 7^th, 2024 at 5:52pm

A US president not initiating involvement in foreign wars seems to correlate with one-term presidencies.

Ford, completing Nixon's term, did not initiate any foreign wars and lost the 1976 election.

Carter also did not initiate any US involvement in foreign wars and was a one-term president. Carter was heavily criticised after his presidency for making the US appear weak.

Trump did not initiate any US involvement in foreign wars and was also a one-term president.

Biden did not initiate any foreign wars (he ended one) - he will be a one-term president.

The outlier is George H W Bush who had a 90% approval rating after involving the US in the first Gulf War yet was a one-term president.

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« Last Edit: Aug 7^th, 2024 at 6:35pm by MeisterEckhart »

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #169 - Aug 8^th, 2024 at 5:10am

The schizophrenic nature of American society regarding war and wartime presidents is most clearly evidenced by the Johnson and the Nixon administrations.

While Johnson inherited the Vietnam War and promised to end it, it quickly became his war and, by 1968, his presidency was destroyed by his prosecuting and expanding it.

Nixon, while he was elected in 1968 promising to end the Vietnam War, ultimately continued and expanded it. He was, however, reelected in 1972 in a landslide.

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MeisterEckhart Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11723 Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #170 - Aug 8^th, 2024 at 7:33am Another point Lichtman emphasises is that his keys do not predict the degree of victory/ defeat of the incumbent party. Also, his criticism of pollsters is that they can never be wrong in that whatever percentage they place on the chances of a candidate's victory/ defeat, it is necessarily an each-way bet.
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #171 - Aug 9^th, 2024 at 12:45pm

Lichtman has tentatively confirmed that Key 5 (strong short-term economy) still holds TRUE (in favour of a Harris-Walz victory).

He cites market indicators that the US is not in recession, nor is forecast to be in the near future; that unemployment is not as high as forecast; that the stock market has already begun to rebound; that the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates a 2.9% GDP real growth rate in the third quarter – well beyond even a remote chance of a US recession.

Key 10 - the Major foreign or military success key - is still TBD but it is currently leaning FALSE as the prisoner exchange success is fading as a potential TRUE key-turner.

The FALSE keys tentatively remain at best 4, at worst 5, sill currently predicting a Harris-Walz win.

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Grappler Truth Teller Feller

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #172 - Aug 9^th, 2024 at 12:51pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 4:30pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 7^th, 2024 at 3:07pm:

Determining whether or not the US economy is in recession is not determined by polls, it is determined by the National Board of Economic Research (NBER).

Exactly.

Polls and emotions aren't a consideration when it comes to the keys.

When does the professor give his prediction, by the way?

But emotions in many other arenas are de rigeur? You know the ones I'm talking about here.... if in doubt - look at the emotion driven madnesses I oppose .... there's a good start.... Cool

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #173 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 9:25am

Key 4 - no third party - is closer to TRUE with RFK jr likely to drop out in Trump's favour.

RFK jr, always a deadbeat, will likely have no impact on a Democratic win other than confirm Key 4 in the Democrats' favour.

His defection to Trump may even draw more votes to the Democrats, as his defection proves he was full of it from the start with his contention that both parties are corrupt.

That and the fact that he has stooped to begging Trump for a place in a Republican administration.

So much for cashing in on his father's name.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #174 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 11:35am

Historian Allan Lichtman said that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exiting the 2024 presidential race would help Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign for the White House.

When it was put to him during a YouTube livestream on his channel that, according to his election prediction system, Kennedy dropping out and endorsing former President Donald Trump would help Harris, Lichtman replied: "Absolutely correct."

"[Kennedy's] endorsement of Trump has nothing to do with the keys – [it] doesn't turn a key one way or the other."

Lichtman also noted that he hasn't definitively called [the "third party"] key, but said "it certainly doesn't look like [Kennedy] is going to rebound."

"I'm still reserving judgement," he added.

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Bobby.

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #175 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 11:52am

VIDEO 45 seconds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cp81zl43ppgo

Watch: Trump speaks behind bullet-proof glass at rally

Donald Trump stood behind bullet-proof glass while he address supporters at a rally.

The former president was speaking in North Carolina, at his first outdoor rally since his attempted assassination in Pennsylvania in July.

At the rally Trump commented on how the Barack and Michelle Obama has criticised him during their speeches at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Tuesday night.

There was a heavy security presence at the rally, with protective snipers seen around the event.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #176 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 12:01pm

Bobby. wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 11:52am:

Donald Trump stood behind bullet-proof glass while he address supporters at a rally.

The former president was speaking in North Carolina, at his first outdoor rally since his attempted assassination in Pennsylvania in July.

And North Carolina is a stronghold Republican state??

Is even his Appalachian base turning on him?

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Bobby.

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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #177 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 12:04pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 12:01pm:

Bobby. wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 11:52am:

Donald Trump stood behind bullet-proof glass while he address supporters at a rally.

The former president was speaking in North Carolina, at his first outdoor rally since his attempted assassination in Pennsylvania in July.

And North Carolina is a stronghold Republican state??

Is even his Appalachian base turning on him?

You never know if there could be a crazy Democrat with a gun in the crowd or on a roof top. Shocked

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MeisterEckhart Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11723 Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #178 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 12:04pm greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 11:35am: "[Kennedy's] endorsement of Trump has nothing to do with the keys – [it] doesn't turn a key one way or the other." Not to be confused with RFK's dropping out, which does turn Key 4 to TRUE.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 136337 Gender:	Re: The Keys to the White House Reply #179 - Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 5:24pm Bobby. wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 11:52am: VIDEO 45 seconds. https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cp81zl43ppgo Watch: Trump speaks behind bullet-proof glass at rally Not sure that will stop him getting another mosquito bite. The mozzies will just fly over the glass and attack his ear again.
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