Despite Lichtman's insistence that the keys are sound, Key 2 - 'No primary contest', is flawed.

There was no primary contest, but the popular consensus that there should have been threatens the key's soundness.

While 'anointings' are common in US politics, it appears Americans do draw a line on them - particularly when they are so publicly done and when a sitting president is concerned.

With Trump heading into his 80s, if he starts to suffer cognitive decline, Americans may be faced with a repeat of 2024.

For those who don't understand hoe Lichtman's model works:

Key 1 to 11 are assessments of the incumbent Whitehouse party, not the party's sitting president and and other-party challengers.

Key 1 - Party Mandate. if the incumbent party loses seats in the midterms, that is a key against the incumbent party.

Key 2 - No party contest for the next candidate - If the incumbent party descends into an internal fight over its next candidate, the key turns against the incumbent party - Think Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden in 2016. - While there was no party contest, as it turned out, the public perceived this as blatant undemocratic 'anointing'.

Key 3 - Incumbent seeking re-election      - Biden was not seeking reelection -

Key 4 - No third party - RFK Jr dropped out -

Key 5 - Strong short-term economy - Economy is not in recession -

Key 6 - Strong long-term economy - economic data forecasts strong growth in US beyond 2024 -

Key 7 - Major policy change - Abortion -

Key 8 - No social unrest - No visible social upheaval (think 60s, Rodney King, BLM riots This is controversial, as Millennials and Zoomers tend to register deep dissatisfaction via social media, than burning buildings, smashing windows and upturning cars,

Key 9 - No scandal - This must be a scandal that involves the president directly - i,e, not his family, relatives or friends - Think Watergate. Carter's reprobate brother did not affect Carter's popularity.

Key 10 - No foreign or military failure. Gaza was considered a failure -

Key 11 - Major foreign or military success - Controversially, Lichtman considered US involvement in Ukraine and reinvigorating the NATO alliance as a success. 

Key 12 - Charismatic incumbent - A very high standard is applied here. Think FDR, JFK, Reagan.

Key 13 - Uncharismatic challenger - Another very high standard key - Think Reagan.

Lichtman accepts he got key 2 wrong.

He should also consider Key 11 as one he got wrong, as well.

Also, as it turned out, Lichtman should consider that he may have got Key 13 wrong - Charisma is not always dependent on being likable - just that, by force of personality alone, the challenger can sway more than enough people to the cause to win.

Another disturbing element of Lictman's self-analysis of Key 2 is that he blames the Democratic Party for 'shamelessly' trashing their sitting president.

Really? Didn't they defend him and allow him to govern despite his obvious decline, and only called it when they couldn't hide it any more?

This calls into question why they had deep misgivings about pulling the 25th, say in 2023, and allowing Harris to assume the presidency.

Was Harris chosen, as so many VP picks are, because she was perceived as being no threat (intellectual or otherwise) to the sitting president? e.g. Mike Pence, Joe Biden, Dan Quale, even George H W Bush (a faceless and low charisma VP), Truman...

Even Johnson was mocked by the Kennedys and the snooty New England elites as a Texas hick and a nobody.

What does it say of the VP selection process that being perceived as ill-equipped for the presidency is so often a mandatory quality for VP selection?

How it started...


MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 6^th, 2024 at 11:10am:




... And how it's going:

Allan Lichtman a.k.a “Election Nostradamus” explains why he got 2024 all wrong and why his fabled “keys” didn’t work. Turns out his model relies on the electorate thinking just like him!

He's blaming everything but his own hubris for misleading so many people: racism, misogyny, disinformation, etc.
His 'predictions' were based on the Big Media echo chamber of bs, lies and disinformation.


Gedoutahere!!

greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 11^th, 2024 at 3:13pm:

Well, this time the Republicans have a VP who, so far, is proving significantly more presidential than Pence did.

Pence fell into the Quale, H W Bush, Biden, Harris - even Truman and Johnson - category of VP picks who were expected to stay national unknowns, underwhelming and little to no threat to the president.

Vance is so far proving he could easily upstage Trump.

If Trump f~cks himself up with impeachable stuff, he could find himself, as Nixon did, with bipartisan support for impeachment.

If Trump declines cognitively, the Republicans are in the safe seat of pulling the 25th on him.

With Vance in the wings, the Republican Party have no further need for Trump.

Trump's first order of business will be to freeze Vance out of presidential deliberations and demand he remain invisible.

Vance having crawled his way out of Appalachian destitution, may not be as intimidated by Trump as Trump would want.

Vance also appears to be a party loyalist (something Trump is not) and will be capable of raising the 25th, or supporting impeachment, if the Republicans believe Trump needs to be gone.

Are gold-plated and etched with the initials DT..... though I doubt his hand will shake as he opens the doors with them...

On what basis should illegal immigrants demand that they be left to stay there?  They're eating the dogs......

They only need to look to Australia to see how hard it is to repatriate even a few hundred illegals.

Maybe the US could build a detention centre on that actual floating pile of garbage in the Pacific...

Apparently, it's the size of France, so plenty of room on it... and plenty of room for some beachfront property while they're at it.


Maybe they could do what the British did with their prisoners and find someplace in Africa or South America to transport them to... Like they did in the American colonies and Australia.

Liberia comes to mind... They're always ranting about wanting to become a state of the US.

MeisterEckhart wrote on Nov 11^th, 2024 at 6:19pm:


Nonsense on stilts. Most illegals enter the US from Mexico and that's where they will be returned to. Do remember that Mexico allowed them to illegally cross its borders, both IN and OUT of Mexico.