While Allan Lichtman has not made a final call on the 2024 election, (he'll do that in late August), he has tentatively predicted a Harris win by 8-5 or 9-4.

If Harris wins at all it will be due to the "Gen-Z" vote who cannot tolerate orange F A T T Y.

We'll go through them one by one, shall we?

The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Red wave failed in 22.

2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. No contest at all.

Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

3. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent. campaign Kennedy's no Ross Perot, but he's taking numbers off Trump, not Harris.
.
4. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Booming.

5. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Read GDP grew 2.8% in the last quarter, 1.4% before that.

Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (I'm not sure).

No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (Social unrest is being driven by the incumbent party's challenger.)

6. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Hillary had her emails hacked and was investigated by the FBI. Karmala faces no such problems.

No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Afghanistan withdrawal).

Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (Hardly).

Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (Trump is the very definition of charismatic - a former TV celebrity who just missed a bullet).

That's 6 keys. Without any scandals before November, that's enough to win.

Karnal wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 11:58am:



4 and 5 are disputable. Inflation is a big issue.

None of the 13 point cover the UN pp recedented flood of illegal immigrants, a very significant issue.

To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 1:46pm:



NOT an election you dumbarse

To be clear, Biden is the incumbent president who is not seeking reelection, which Lichtman goes to lengths to point out is the point of key 4.

Harris has not succeeded him nor has Biden been ousted, nor has he resigned (which, incidentally, Lichtman recommended he do, which would have automatically led to Harris being sworn in as president - thereby preserving key 4).

Currently, Biden is at the same status as Truman and Johnson before him - both incumbent presidents who did not seek a second term.

Frank wrote on Jul 27^th, 2024 at 12:30pm:


A 0.6% drop in goods prices in the last two months, old boy. That's deflation.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-rises-moderately-june-2024-07-26...

Wall Street's currently booming on the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates. Our own Reserve Bank's taking notice. The US economy could not be in any better shape for an election.

The US currently has one of the best-performing economies in the OECD, and that's on the Dems. Sleepy Joe's Jobs/Infrastructure and Chips Acts got things moving.

The border is one issue, so thanks for the reminder. It's your DL's last remaining hope - a single-issue election on immigration. Your DL's selling it as a foreign/military failure - an invasion, trying to steal a key.

But I'm curious. When has a US presidential candidate ever won an election on one issue?

Carter Watergate? Reagan Iran hostage crisis? Clinton economy stupid?

Noooo. All of those campaigns were won for a host of different reasons, but do you know?

DL has no solution. Karmala just has to point that out. The Biden administration's been working on a 2500 a week limit. Anybody else - back to where they came from.

DL's promising a massive border force with a network of concentration camps. No worries, how's he going to fund it? Sleepy Joe went to Congress with a request to fund more patrols and judges. Noooo, Mike said, back to where you came from.

DL says he'll just use the po-lice. Talk to Arizona and Texas. Ask them to give him hundreds of cops to chase the illegals. Easy-peasy.

Oh, and ignore the other half of the border with California and New Mexico - they're run by the leftards. Greg can bus his illegals over to them. 

If I was Karmala, I'd be pointing all this out. Bust his ditzy bubble. You're right. The US is most certainly not the country it was 40 years ago. It's currently dealing with the damage your DL's done in nine short years.

How does it feeeel?