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The Keys to the White House (Read 4567 times)
Karnal
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #90 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm:
To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.


WTF are you talking about?   Roll Eyes


He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?
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MeisterEckhart
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #91 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:34pm
 
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:58pm:
The border is one issue, so thanks for the reminder. It's your DL's last remaining hope - a single-issue election on immigration. Your DL's selling it as a foreign/military failure - an invasion, trying to steal a key.

What Trump is attempting to do is to foment social unrest over immigration such that key 8 - no social unrest - falls. His backup plan is abortion, but he is failing with that.

However, for the "no social unrest" key to fall, the unrest needs to be on a Vietnam protests level, or a George Floyd/BLM level - which is highly unlikely.
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MeisterEckhart
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #92 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:41pm
 
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm:
To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.


WTF are you talking about?   Roll Eyes


He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?

However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3).

They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.
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MeisterEckhart
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #93 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:07pm
 
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:41pm:
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm:
To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.


WTF are you talking about?   Roll Eyes


He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?

However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3).

They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.

Given the energy injected into the Democratic campaign by the Harris support, Biden is now the lamest of lame-duck presidents since Johnson.

His resignation, propelling Harrus into the presidency, could be on the cards, although at the risk of it appearing too much of a political tactic, as opposed to a selfless gesture for the good of the nation.
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Frank
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #94 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm
 
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:41pm:
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm:
To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.


WTF are you talking about?   Roll Eyes


He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?

However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3).

They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.


Not so sure about that.

Harris is not the nominee yet. Just the VP. It's not for Biden or Obama to anoint her, it is for the party convention.

If Biden is not fit to run he's not fit to be pre (hasn't been since day 1).

Kackela owns all his failings since 2020 with no positives of her own.
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greggerypeccary
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #95 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm
 
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
If Biden is not fit to run ...


He didn't say he's not fit to run.

Maybe you should watch his speech again.

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Karnal
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #96 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:25pm
 
Social unrest? Yes, Meister, I'm guessing Lichtman was referring to Vietnam/civil rights-era levels of unrest. That's what did LBJ in.

Nixon campaigned on social unrest. The unrest amplified over his time in office to the stage where the White House was under constant siege by protesters and police.

The George Floyd riots were over in a few days, totally separate to BLM protests - no deaths or violence at any of the marches held around the world, excluding those that faced counter-protests and attacks by white nationalists.

Aside from the odd community reaction to police killing blacks, the only civil violence in recent times has been protests over Gaza, confined to college campuses. You've gotta love Trump's cynical response to that, promising to send in the military when he knows from his experience in Portland how unconstitutional that would be. Remember when he threatened to send the military in to guard a sole federal building?

Social unrest during Biden's time in office pales in comparison to the far-right violence of the Trump era. Check it out:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_...

Much of that unrest was directly inflamed by the words of the president himself. One was organized by his own team and incited by the president's own instructions - an attack ruled to have caused the deaths of six people; the first invasion of the US Capitol since the War of 1812.

Nobody does social unrest better than Trump, and all Karmala has to do is remind the voters. It's easy to forget that Trump mobilized his unrest at the peak of a global pandemic, well before vaccines had been rolled out, when health officials were desperately trying to keep gatherings to a minimum.

The death toll of Jan 6 excludes deaths caused by covid, at its deadliest at the time, with over 40,000 deaths a week. Not only did Trump rally protesters against the advice of his own health officials, he discouraged social distancing and the wearing of masks.

Imagine, leaders like Boris Johnson were exposed for failing to follow their own covid regulations. Johnson was brought down for hosting a staff birthday party in his office.

Trump, by contrast, mobilized thousands of maskless protesters and told them to march to the Capitol, where government employees, congresspeople and senators were following strict instructions to prevent infecting the nation's lawmakers.

Social unrest hardly captures what Trump did on Jan 6, Meister, but now he's running again. No wonder he's refusing to debate his political opponent. In any other country, he'd be safely locked away - for social unrest.
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Karnal
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #97 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:37pm
 
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:41pm:
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm:
To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.


WTF are you talking about?   Roll Eyes


He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?

However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3).

They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.


True, but maybe Lichtman needs to add a new key: the candidate opposing the incumbent is under 80. 

Biden's only problem was his age. Americans expect an energetic leader who can remember the name of the foreign leader they're addressing.

As long as Karmala doesn't get Nancy Pelosi mixed up with Nikki Haley, call the Apple CEO Tim Apple or call our own PM Malcolm Turntable, she should be right.

That's a lot of names, no?
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Karnal
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #98 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:46pm
 
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:41pm:
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 3:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 2:30pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 12:33pm:
To be clear, Lichtman's 13 keys method has predicted every election since 1984 and has been successfully retro-tested on every election before 1984 to back as far as 1860.

To be clear, the same reckoning of the 13 points applied to Biden, yet they replaced him.


WTF are you talking about?   Roll Eyes


He's saying they didn't listen to Lichtman, who advised Sleepy Joe not to go anywhere.

Cunning, no?

However, Lichtman suggested that, if Biden were to bow out, he should resign the presidency so the Dems could keep the incumbency key (key 3).

They did the next best thing after Biden bowed out: they united within 4 days behind Harris to a degree unprecedented in modern times - thus preserving key 2.


Not so sure about that.

Harris is not the nominee yet. Just the VP. It's not for Biden or Obama to anoint her, it is for the party convention.

If Biden is not fit to run he's not fit to be pre (hasn't been since day 1).

Kackela owns all his failings since 2020 with no positives of her own.


Biden's fit to govern, dear. He's proven that since Day 1.

Your DL, on the other hand, promises to become a dictator on Day 1.

No, I'm not making it up, he said so himself. He later went on to dig himself in, saying how mean and nasty he'd be on Day 1.

You know, he plans to hand energy policy over to big oil, launch a nationwide manhunt of all illegals, throw Ukraine under the bus, lock the leftards up and terminate all rules, laws and articles, including those in the Constitution.

He only said Day 1. I'm sure he'd be pretty nice after that.

You?
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Frank
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #99 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
If Biden is not fit to run ...


He didn't say he's not fit to run.



True.

Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said.

Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.

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greggerypeccary
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #100 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:03pm
 
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
If Biden is not fit to run ...


He didn't say he's not fit to run.



True.

Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said.

Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.



So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?

I'm curious.
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Karnal
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #101 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:10pm
 
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
If Biden is not fit to run ...


He didn't say he's not fit to run.



True.

Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said.

Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.



You sound hurt, dear boy. You always say Soros when you're in pain.

Is it your safe word?
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Frank
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #102 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:16pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:03pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
If Biden is not fit to run ...


He didn't say he's not fit to run.



True.

Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said.

Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.



So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?

I'm curious.

He is a moth eaten sock puppet.  'Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like. He was 'sharp as a tack' until he had to have a camera on him for 90 minutes. Then the jig was up, the emperor-puppet had no clothes and so he was thrown over-board.

He has never been in charge except what ice cream he had. If that. He was managed, coddled, shielded, talked up to a ridiculous extent - until he was unceremoniously defenestrated.
A puppet all along.


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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
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greggerypeccary
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #103 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:52pm
 
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:16pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:03pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 6:01pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:16pm:
Frank wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:15pm:
If Biden is not fit to run ...


He didn't say he's not fit to run.



True.

Nancy, Bazza O'bama, Soros, Big Media said.

Biden had no say in it. He never had a say in anything for 4 years.



So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?

I'm curious.

He is a moth eaten sock puppet.  'Biden' is a mere road sign, a shorthand label for the deep state, the establishment, the Uniparty, elder abuse,  call it what you like. He was 'sharp as a tack' until he had to have a camera on him for 90 minutes. Then the jig was up, the emperor-puppet had no clothes and so he was thrown over-board.

He has never been in charge except what ice cream he had. If that. He was managed, coddled, shielded, talked up to a ridiculous extent - until he was unceremoniously defenestrated.
A puppet all along.




So why do you keep blaming him for things like inflation and the border?
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MeisterEckhart
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Re: The Keys to the White House
Reply #104 - Jul 27th, 2024 at 7:57pm
 
Karnal wrote on Jul 27th, 2024 at 5:37pm:
True, but maybe Lichtman needs to add a new key: the candidate opposing the incumbent is under 80. 
\

That's something Lichtman gets swamped with every 4 years!

'You've gotta change your keys... we've never had an old man (Reagan!)/ black candidate/ woman before so...'

Lictman's 13 keys have been retrospectively tested and predictive since Lincoln's 1860 election to 2020 with a 100% success rate... through slavery, Civil War, reconstruction, Jim Crow, women's suffrage, prohibition, depression, world wars, Cold War, Vietnam, Watergate, 70s recession, old candidate, military adventurism, recessions, black candidate...

Why would he change his keys mid-flight for 2024?
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« Last Edit: Jul 27th, 2024 at 8:03pm by MeisterEckhart »  
 
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