SadKangaroo wrote on Jul 30
th, 2024 at 12:52pm:
JC Denton wrote on Jul 30
th, 2024 at 12:43pm:
keith woods thinks trump is going to lose. he makes a pretty reasonable case for it. i'm not so sure but i suspect the dems are going to be much better at getting out the vote in the handful of decisive state electorates needed in order to win the presidency. he was right both in 2016 and 2020 so he's one ahead of my own predictive record at least.
https://keithwoods.pub/p/trump-is-heading-for-defeat That's the thing, it's much easier to be energised by the party that represents the majority of the country, and that's the Dems.
The Republicans are a minoritarian party that represents the big end of town over the people.
It's only early days in her campaign, but she stands for things that are broadly beneficial for the country and will get people to vote.
Trump's base already peaked. The only people still supporting him are those who don't support him, but would never vote blue, and those who will only vote Trump because he's their god emperor.
He's not winning on policy, in fact most people you can ask about his policy will cite things that he failed on, but just lied about. They've not taken the time to learn more about his record that didn't come from him directly.
They're uninformed but as some here like to say, "vibe with Trump".
And that's fine in a democratic system.
But that support base is finite. It won't grow now that Biden is gone.
Trump needs to transition to keeping his current base, rather than changing his messaging to get more voters, because if he does that, he'll lose more than he'll gain.
Trump has peaked, and it's only early days for Harris (aka, she's still enjoying the honeymoon).
that was the case 30 years ago
for people like bernie sanders its still the case
thats why he got the boot.
read micheal moores book "stupid white people."
michael , a devout socialist, has a quite brilliant opening chapter where he goes on and on about government policies that purely enrich the rich.
the kicker is that micheal reveals these are not republican policies, they are Bill Clintons (including incarcerating 1.5 million black men for minor crimes).
howards battlers were previously staunch labor stalwarts
most of the maga crowd are fairly broke
the dems are now the party of the educated (indoctrinated) white young female in a white collar job.
and they are not the poorest demographic, they are the richest
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