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GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters (Read 1317 times)
thegreatdivide
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #30 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 11:42am
 
freediver wrote on Sep 5th, 2024 at 8:41am:
Bobby. wrote on Sep 4th, 2024 at 8:22pm:
https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-weakest-economy-outside-of-a-recession-h...


GDP per capita has been falling for six consecutive quarters.
This means this measure of living standards has been falling for 18 months –
a record since the Bureau of Statistics began publishing GDP per capita in the early 1970s.



This is the weakest economy outside of a recession. Here’s what the GDP figures show

Published: September 4, 2024 4.06pm AEST


The latest national accounts show the Australian economy is struggling. It’s what you would expect after the sharpest series of interest rate rises on record, and is more or less what the Reserve Bank was trying to achieve to bring down inflation.

Australia’s gross domestic product grew just 0.2% in the three months to June, after growing 0.2% in the previous three months (upgraded from an earlier estimate of 0.1%) and 0.2% the three months before that.

So low is the run of low growth that the economy grew just 1% over the year to June. That’s the lowest annual growth outside of a recession since the mid-1980s.


https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lHo7n/full.png


We are not in recession as commonly defined: two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Nor are we in the broader definition of a recession favoured by the Reserve Bank, one accompanied by a significant increase in unemployment.

That is actually one of the positives at present – unemployment remains low. Nevertheless, it feels like a recession for many Australians.

Were it not for population growth, GDP would be going backwards.
Population growth has been keeping the economy afloat.


Australians who oppose immigration might want to reflect on whether they would prefer a recession.

Public sector spending has also been shoring up the economy. It contributed 0.4 percentage points to the quarterly economic growth figure of 0.2%, meaning that without it the economy would have also gone backwards.

In the words of Treasurer Jim Chalmers at the national accounts press conference:


The author has it all backwards. Why would anyone want to use the population to manage gross GDP?


Mainstream flat-earth economists say population increase increases demand and consumption, and hence GDP.

Quote:
It is per capita GDP that really counts, and there is nothing to show that immigration fixes that. If anything, it probably makes it worse. It definitely worsens all the other measures of quality of life.


Correct, but the mainstream economists are living in the delusional "continuous growth" world.

Note: the idiot Bullock - keeping interest rates higher for longer - is stealing money from people with mortgages and no savings, and giving it to the minority of people (like me) who own a house and have savings.

And Chalmers is hiding behind the "independence" of the the central bank, as cover for his ineptitude, while  average wealth (per capita GDP)  is shrinking under his management. 

Deplorable.
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« Last Edit: Sep 5th, 2024 at 12:02pm by thegreatdivide »  
 
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Bobby.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #31 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 12:48pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 5th, 2024 at 8:41am:
Bobby. wrote on Sep 4th, 2024 at 8:22pm:
https://theconversation.com/this-is-the-weakest-economy-outside-of-a-recession-h...


GDP per capita has been falling for six consecutive quarters.
This means this measure of living standards has been falling for 18 months –
a record since the Bureau of Statistics began publishing GDP per capita in the early 1970s.



This is the weakest economy outside of a recession. Here’s what the GDP figures show

Published: September 4, 2024 4.06pm AEST


The latest national accounts show the Australian economy is struggling. It’s what you would expect after the sharpest series of interest rate rises on record, and is more or less what the Reserve Bank was trying to achieve to bring down inflation.

Australia’s gross domestic product grew just 0.2% in the three months to June, after growing 0.2% in the previous three months (upgraded from an earlier estimate of 0.1%) and 0.2% the three months before that.

So low is the run of low growth that the economy grew just 1% over the year to June. That’s the lowest annual growth outside of a recession since the mid-1980s.


https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lHo7n/full.png


We are not in recession as commonly defined: two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Nor are we in the broader definition of a recession favoured by the Reserve Bank, one accompanied by a significant increase in unemployment.

That is actually one of the positives at present – unemployment remains low. Nevertheless, it feels like a recession for many Australians.

Were it not for population growth, GDP would be going backwards.
Population growth has been keeping the economy afloat.


Australians who oppose immigration might want to reflect on whether they would prefer a recession.

Public sector spending has also been shoring up the economy. It contributed 0.4 percentage points to the quarterly economic growth figure of 0.2%, meaning that without it the economy would have also gone backwards.

In the words of Treasurer Jim Chalmers at the national accounts press conference:


The author has it all backwards. Why would anyone want to use the population to manage gross GDP? It is per capita GDP that really counts, and there is nothing to show that immigration fixes that. If anything, it probably makes it worse. It definitely worsens all the other measures of quality of life.



yes but he does say

"This means this measure of living standards has been falling for 18 months –"
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freediver
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #32 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 4:05pm
 
Quote:
Mainstream flat-earth economists say population increase increases demand and consumption, and hence GDP.


It does. But like the author, you completely miss the point.

Quote:
Correct, but the mainstream economists are living in the delusional "continuous growth" world.


Why? Because they tell the same truth that you do? You are inventing a strawman, so tell us what it is.

Quote:
yes but he does say

"This means this measure of living standards has been falling for 18 months –"


He also says:

Australians who oppose immigration might want to reflect on whether they would prefer a recession.

Hence, he misses the point. A recession in which living standards increase due to population decline is preferable to economic growth in which living standards decrease due to population growth. So yes, they would actually prefer a recession.

For TGD's benefit, economists acknowledge quite openly the limits of GDP as a measure of real wealth. My macroeconomics lecturer went through all sorts of ways in which it can fail to measure declining productivity and declining living standards. No-one who has actually studied economics says the things that you do. Unless they studied it at the CCP institute for anti-western propaganda. As the OP demonstrates, journalists do often miss the point completely. Don't confuse the two. Economists have gone to greater effort than any other profession to inform journalists and the public about the reality of what they teach. They need to, because communists like you and people who think intuition is a substitute for understanding (The Greens) always get the economics backwards.
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« Last Edit: Sep 5th, 2024 at 4:11pm by freediver »  

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Bobby.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #33 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 4:32pm
 
FD,
Quote:
He also says:

Australians who oppose immigration might want to reflect on whether they would prefer a recession.

Hence, he misses the point. A recession in which living standards increase due to population decline is preferable to economic growth in which living standards decrease due to population growth. So yes, they would actually prefer a recession.



I agree with you - let's have a recession - our standard of living per capita would go up.
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Bobby.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #34 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 5:11pm
 
Looks like people can't afford gourmet food anymore:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13815425/King-Island-Dairy-close-tasman...



BREAKING NEWS        King Island Dairy to close down after 120 years


    Owner Saputo announced closure on Thursday

    Close to 60 staff will be impacted

   
By Eliza Mcphee For Daily Mail Australia and Ethan James For Australian Associated Press

Published: 15:09 AEST, 5 September 2024 | Updated: 15:38 AEST, 5 September 2024


A beloved cheese producer has been forced to close after 120 years, with 58 staff now left in limbo.

Tasmania's King Island Dairy will close up shop mid next year, Canadian owner Saputo announced on Thursday.

The future of the business had been under a cloud for 10 months after Saputo launched a strategic review of the facility.

King Island Dairy operations began in the early 1900s and is one of the biggest employers in the island which holds about 1,600 people.

Saputo chief operating officer Leanne Cutts said the decision to wind up the business was difficult.

She said 'every possible option' had been reviewed but closure was the most viable way to strengthen Saputo's competitiveness in a changing market.

'As King Island Dairy's historic roots are deeply embedded in the region, it was hoped the strategic review would identify a potential buyer for the facility,' Ms Cutts said.

'It is a unique brand, with a plant that is nearly 100 years old.


...
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Laugh till you cry
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #35 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 5:29pm
 
Old plants are not productive.

A 100-year-old plant uses 100-year-old technology. Some of the workers are probably 100 years old.

It should have modernized 80 years ago and then modernized regularly.
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Bobby.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #36 - Sep 5th, 2024 at 5:32pm
 
Laugh till you cry wrote on Sep 5th, 2024 at 5:29pm:
Old plants are not productive.

A 100-year-old plant uses 100-year-old technology. Some of the workers are probably 100 years old.

It should have modernized 80 years ago and then modernized regularly.



I liked all the King Island cheese but it was very expensive.

...
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Bobby.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #37 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 6:33am
 
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #38 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 9:21am
 
Bobby. wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 6:33am:


Bobby is obviously cheesed off.
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thegreatdivide
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #39 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 11:28am
 
Bobby. wrote on Sep 5th, 2024 at 4:32pm:
FD,
Quote:
He also says:

Australians who oppose immigration might want to reflect on whether they would prefer a recession.

Hence, he misses the point. A recession in which living standards increase due to population decline is preferable to economic growth in which living standards decrease due to population growth. So yes, they would actually prefer a recession.


I agree with you - let's have a recession - our standard of living per capita would go up.


Funny....  but indeed Australian's standard of living is falling, even though gdp is increasing.

Alan Kohler is asking how Oz can reverse the trend, given  the failure of mainstream economists to equip politicians with the tools to maintain productivity.

https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/09/02/alan-kohler-australia-prosperi...

Alan explores the consequences of US resistance to the China export-based development model which proved so successful for China 1990 to 2016 (until the Trump tariffs on China)  - and also Oz which supplied the raw materials enabling China to become the world's factory.

That is now under pressure; China's reliance on exports plus real estate for development, is over; and likewise Oz's reliance on China's imports of Oz iron ore and coal is also under pressure.

And FD thinks mainstream economists know what they are talking about......


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freediver
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #40 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 12:30pm
 
thegreatdivide wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 11:28am:
Bobby. wrote on Sep 5th, 2024 at 4:32pm:
FD,
Quote:
He also says:

Australians who oppose immigration might want to reflect on whether they would prefer a recession.

Hence, he misses the point. A recession in which living standards increase due to population decline is preferable to economic growth in which living standards decrease due to population growth. So yes, they would actually prefer a recession.


I agree with you - let's have a recession - our standard of living per capita would go up.


Funny....  but indeed Australian's standard of living is falling, even though gdp is increasing.

Alan Kohler is asking how Oz can reverse the trend, given  the failure of mainstream economists to equip politicians with the tools to maintain productivity.

https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/09/02/alan-kohler-australia-prosperi...

Alan explores the consequences of US resistance to the China export-based development model which proved so successful for China 1990 to 2016 (until the Trump tariffs on China)  - and also Oz which supplied the raw materials enabling China to become the world's factory.

That is now under pressure; China's reliance on exports plus real estate for development, is over; and likewise Oz's reliance on China's imports of Oz iron ore and coal is also under pressure.

And FD thinks mainstream economists know what they are talking about......




I do. I don't think you have a clue what they are saying. All you know is what your CCP pamphlet tells you they are saying.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #41 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 12:38pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 12:30pm:
ll you know is what your CCP pamphlet tells you they are saying.


FleaDriver's Mossad propaganda pamphlet trumps other propaganda pamphlets.
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thegreatdivide
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #42 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 12:41pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 5th, 2024 at 4:05pm:
TGD:
Mainstream flat-earth economists say population increase increases demand and consumption, and hence GDP.


It does. But like the author, you completely miss the point.


Which is...?

Quote:
Why? Because they tell the same truth that you do? You are inventing a strawman, so tell us what it is.


Typical FD confusion and obfuscation: mainstream neoclassical economists DON'T "tell the same truth as I do"; commonsense tells us there is no shortage of resources in our modern AI and IT economies which are a barrier  to enabling increasing common  prosperity - the barriers are political,  NOT economic.

Note: you will have to tell us what the "stawman" is, before I can tell you what it is ......

Quote:
"This means this measure of living standards has been falling for 18 months –"


Which is true - the question is: why is it so? There has been no loss of  resources in Oz - despite the fact we plan to IMPORT gas - more political madness driven by neoclassical dunderheads who have zombified politicians' brains. 

Quote:
Hence, he misses the point. A recession in which living standards increase due to population decline is preferable to economic growth in which living standards decrease due to population growth. So yes, they would actually prefer a recession.


More narrative resulting from confused flat-earth neoclassical mainstream dogmas (and your zombified brain):

1.  if living standards increase, there is no "recession" worth the name, regardless of whether the population is increasing or decreasing

2. economic growth which relies on population growth alone is unsustainable.

Quote:
For TGD's benefit, economists acknowledge quite openly the limits of GDP as a measure of real wealth. My macroeconomics lecturer went through all sorts of ways in which it can fail to measure declining productivity and declining living standards. No-one who has actually studied economics says the things that you do.


Funny - the above is exactly what I am saying.

But what your 'macroeconomics' lecturer DIDN'T do was explain how governments can mobilize the nation's resources to achieve continuous increase in living standards, regardless of population growth rates.

Deplorable dummy that he was. 

Quote:
Unless they studied it at the CCP institute for anti-western propaganda.


Back to front again: the CCP is mostly listening to its  Western-trained flat-earth neoclassical economists in charge of the PBofC, which is why China - even with its vast internal market - is suffering a marked slowdown in (real) economic growth (while Yellen is accusing China of industrial "over-capacity") because of US 'decoupling' efforts.   

Quote:
As the OP demonstrates, journalists do often miss the point completely.


You're not kidding.  They are hooked on mainstream 'balanced budget' insanity, thinking the currency-issuing government's budget is subject to the same restrictions as their own household budgets. And the mainstream neoclassical fools Bullock and 'Doctor' Chalmers are playing their silly "you are responsible" games - on their fat salaries, while Oz living standards are falling.

Quote:
Don't confuse the two. Economists have gone to greater effort than any other profession to inform journalists and the public about the reality of what they teach.


No kidding; the flat-earthers have fooled most of us (including you)...

Quote:
They need to, because communists like you and people who think intuition is a substitute for understanding (The Greens) always get the economics backwards.


That's the wrong reason why economists have "gone to all that effort"; not to mention economists are divided; eg the AI's Richard Dennis supports  Green's policies (ie high taxes to support necessary government spending).

The real reason is they can't admit all that hard work at uni was based on obsolete economic fallacies re 'scarcity in the face of unlimited wants', the basis of neoclassical theory. 
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goosecat
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #43 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 3:16pm
 
There are different causes of decreases in living standards just as there are different types of recessions.

My untrained view of Australians more recent decreases in living standards revolves mainly around inflation, including the never even mentioned in child-like financial reporting, existence of compounding inflation.

More than any losses experienced via interest rate rises alone is the cost of inflationary pricing affecting every good and service above income increases, particularly for the poorest.

The biggest effects for these people are the inflationary movements of basic food and shelter, mostly caused by inflationary pressures.

High inflation is the single biggest driver of loss of living standards in this country ATM STILL. We fell behind the rest of the world in raising rates and have continued to pay the consequent elongated inflation costs of every good and service. Most fail to truly grasp the permanency of those losses.
Even moving into depreciation of 50% does not ever regain the purchasing power loss (and consequent living standard loss) of the prior 100% inflation etc etc. These losses become baked into society and very difficult and extremely long term to ever actually regain.

High inflation is THE ENEMY of successful economies and living standards. I don't care if we go into a small recession and low percentage job losses via lifting rates to tame it.
I am frankly tired of the likes of Kohler whom has lost the ability in his old age (if he ever really had it) to move outside sheer share market evaluation in reality.

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« Last Edit: Sep 6th, 2024 at 3:46pm by goosecat »  
 
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Bobby.
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Re: GDP / capita falling for six consecutive quarters
Reply #44 - Sep 6th, 2024 at 3:22pm
 
goosecat wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 3:16pm:
There are different causes of decreases in living standards just as there are different types of recessions.

My untrained view of Australians more recent decreases in living standards revolves mainly around inflation, including the never even mentioned in child-like financial reporting existence of compounding inflation.

More than any losses experienced via interest rate rises alone is the cost of inflationary pricing affecting every good and service above income increases, particularly for the poorest.

The biggest effects for these people are the inflationary movements of basic food and shelter, mostly caused by inflationary pressures.

High inflation is the single biggest driver of loss of living standards in this country ATM STILL. We fell behind the rest of the world in raising rates and have continued to pay the consequent elongated inflation costs of every good and service. Most fail to truly grasp the permanency of those losses.
Even moving into depreciation of 50% does not ever regain the purchasing power loss (and consequent living standard loss) of the prior 100% inflation etc etc. These losses become backed into society and very difficult and extremely long term to ever actually regain.

High inflation is THE ENEMY of successful economies and living standards. I don't care if we go into a small recession and low percentage job losses via lifting rates to tame it.
I am frankly tired of the likes of Kohler whom has lost the ability in his old age to move outside sheer share market evaluation in reality.



And today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-05/rba-michele-bullock-more-australians-seek...


More people are seeking help as Australia's economy slows down, RBA governor acknowledges
By business reporter Gareth Hutchens

    Topic:Money and Monetary Policy

Thu 5 Sep


Fight against inflation will take years

Ms Bullock made her comments in a speech to the Anika Foundation in Sydney on Thursday afternoon.

Her speech had the title: The Costs of High Inflation.


The economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter, and by just 1 per cent over the last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The severe slowdown in economic activity occurred after the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates 13 times since mid-2022 to squeeze high inflation out of the economy.

Underlying inflation is currently running at an annual pace of 3.8 per cent, which is still above the RBA's target of 2.5 per cent.

On Thursday, Ms Bullock said if the engineered economic slowdown kept tracking as the RBA anticipated, inflation could be sitting around 2.5 per cent by the end of 2026.
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