Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Poll Poll
Question: 2025 Election predictions

Labor returns with majority Gov    
  3 (13.0%)
Labor forms minority Gov    
  7 (30.4%)
Shock horror! LNP majority Gov    
  9 (39.1%)
LNP forms minority Gov    
  4 (17.4%)




Total votes: 23
« Last Modified by: Captain Nemo on: Sep 28th, 2024 at 9:49am »

Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 11
Send Topic Print
2025 Election predictions (Read 6629 times)
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #105 - Jan 19th, 2025 at 9:05pm
 
He has a way with words!    Grin


Opinion
Albanese’s inaction drives his own party towards extinction


Richard Flanagan
Writer
January 18, 2025 — 5.00am

Extinctions sometimes strangely entwine – like the ancient Maugean skate ray, of which it is estimated fewer than 120 remain and which will likely be driven to extinction in the next few years because of the Tasmanian salmon industry, and the federal ALP, of which 78 lower house members remain.
Maugean skates need oxygen to survive and breed. Untreated sewage flowing from salmon feedlots into Tasmania’s remote Macquarie Harbour equals that of a city of a million people. All that poo eats so much oxygen that large areas become marine death zones. The ALP is similarly suffocating in a deluge of corporate poo that eats the values and purpose it needs to survive.

...
Illustration by Simon Letch

And yet, under Anthony Albanese, Labor gives the ever stronger impression that it has never seen a corporation that it won’t prostrate itself to. Each knee-step taken in his bizarre pilgrimage of national humiliation, from his log cabin origins to his house on the hill, is loudly tolled by the sound of the corporate cash registers jubilantly ringing with growing profits. Qantas and the promised legislation to make it pay customers compensation for late or cancelled flights? No action – ka-ching! The gambling industry and the ads more than 70 per cent of Australians want gone? No action – ka-ching! More coal mine approvals, new gas fields approvals, $1 billion for a Gina Rinehart-backed mine? No problem! Ka-ching! Even a spineless environmental measure like Tanya Plibersek’s “nature positive” bill is axed by Albanese at the behest of the West Australian mining industry. Ka-ching! Ka-ching! Ka-ching!

The word extinction was first paired with species in the 1880s as a result of a Cambridge don’s search for the last great auk, a penguin-like bird hunted to extinction by humans. “A healthy population existed until close to the time of the species’ extinction,” Tim Flannery wrote in a recent piece in New York Review of Books. “When it came, however, the decline of the great auk was swift and relentless.” While “the great auk was difficult to hunt at sea”, Flannery continued, “when it came ashore to breed it was uniquely vulnerable.”

And so too Albo. His much-remarked gifts of backroom dealing and party wrangling that worked in the darkness of factional intrigue serve him less well on the naked, exposed rock of government. In 2022, Labor secured just 32.58 per cent of the national primary vote, its lowest vote since 1934. Labor’s electoral fortunes give every appearance of spiralling only further downwards at the next election, with the party falling, according to the latest poll, to 31 per cent.
Great auks were not difficult to tame. There was one in the court of Louis XIV at Versailles, perhaps a little lost, like Albo at the Murdochs’ recent Christmas bash. A Danish savant kept another on a leash, not unlike the salmon barons who seem to have Albo on speed dial, with the prime minister seemingly ever ready to fly to Tasmania solely to endorse salmon companies with a record of environmental destruction, one so bad their actions led to the banning of salmon farming in Washington state (Cooke Aquaculture, owners of Tassal). According to Hilary Franz, the state commissioner of public lands there, “Cooke’s disregard ... recklessly put our state’s aquatic ecosystem at risk.”

Then there are the owners of Huon Aquaculture, JBS, a global byword for criminality. In 2017, its owner brothers Joesley and Wesley Batista admitted to bribing over 1800 politicians and public officials in Brazil. Corruption was, according to an interview Joesley gave in 2017 before going to jail with Wesley, “the rule of the game. And what’s most important, corruption was on the upper floors, with the authorities.” Today Wesley’s son Henry Batista, described in The Australian Financial Review as “the Kendall Roy of salmon”, works in Hobart as CEO of Huon Aquaculture. (Henry was not implicated in the senior Batistas’ corruption.)
According to the Australia Institute, the three 100 per cent foreign-owned Tasmanian salmon companies have paid no corporate tax for the past five years. For Albo – who has extraordinarily floated plans to exempt Macquarie Harbour from all federal environmental law under a national-interest provision typically reserved for emergencies – that’s seemingly more reason to ensure the rule of law doesn’t apply to the salmon mafia.

And once one industry can exist outside the law, why not others? Why not Woodside, which plans to keep its gas fields pumping until 2070 and open new ones, making a mockery of net zero by 2050? Why not Hancock Prospecting? And while at it, criminalise those who protest such things as the fossil fuel industry’s responsibility for the climate crisis.
If you talk to extinction experts, they will point out that a sighting of a large flock of birds can mean little as to their future prospects. A flock of, say, 78 birds may give a misleading view of the birds’ prospects as a species, when perhaps only 16 of the birds are capable of reproducing. With Labor’s primary vote steadily collapsing, Albo may be remembered not as a nickname, but as a byword for a mass extinction event.

...
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #106 - Jan 19th, 2025 at 9:06pm
 
The ordinary person who has lived through the extraordinary, frequently heavy-handed state interventions of recent years with COVID, knows exactly just how powerful the state is. So too does Peter Dutton, a former Queensland walloper who in other circumstances might be thought to have the electoral appeal of a venomous axolotl. What the new right gets right though is that people are angry, that life gets harder, and people want change. People want the state to act – for the people.

What the right offers them is its newly found intent to use the state to achieve change. From Weimar Germany on, the cry of state action, no matter how mindless and destructive, has always appealed to societies where the established polity has grown incapable of acting. Dutton’s call for nuclear reactors built by the state may be a shroud to help the fossil fuel industry continue to profit. But at a deeper level it appeals as Donald Trump’s equally spurious calls for a wall appealed – it speaks of politicians willing to use the state to address problems. If hypocritical posturing, it nevertheless suggests a will to action.
Yet for Labor, still mired in its 1990s romance with the Hawke-Keating legacy, it too often is the market and only the market that has power. The best the state can do is kneel before it. And if Qantas or Tabcorp or News or Woodside or Tassal don’t wish to alter their ways, Labor simply agrees, rewarding and further enabling them.

The problem is that what is at stake is much greater than the Labor Party, but democracy itself. A society that no longer can use the state to address its problems – from the environment to housing to rapidly escalating inequality to the increasingly unfettered power of corporations – looks more and more like the US, where Luigi Mangione became a folk hero for allegedly murdering a health insurance company CEO. Historically, assassinations only become celebrated as political protest when political systems have grown sclerotic and violent change is often imminent – from Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 to the Romanovs in 1917 to the Rwandan dictator Habyarimana in 1994.

Delay, deny, defend: a version of the words found on Mangione’s shell casings refers to the immoral practices used by American insurance corporations in refusing to honour legitimate health claims. But they also can sound uncomfortably close to the strategy and rhetoric of the Albanese government in regard to so much of its failure to act on the many problems besetting our country.
For democracy does not die in darkness. It grows terminally ill in the Chairman’s Lounge. What Labor gets wrong is thinking that people respect it for grovelling to greed. For being photographed with Alan Joyce or in proximity of a Murdoch. For backing the Batistas. They don’t. They are enraged. Labor’s diminishing flock of lesser auks will be hunted down by the corporate raiders feasting on all the plumage and flesh that the state can offer in perks, breaks, subsidies, exemptions – what are, incidentally, our taxes, our heritage, our way of life – until all that is left is a bare, ever hotter rock and beneath it a dark seething sea covered in salmon feedlots, poo-flecked foam devoid of life.


Richard Flanagan is the first writer to win both the Baillie Gifford Prize (for non-fiction) and Booker Prize (for fiction). His most recent book is Question 7.

https://archive.is/isu8j#selection-3675.0-3795.11
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #107 - Jan 21st, 2025 at 9:18am
 
Latest Freshwater Poll.

Oh yeah!!!

...

  Cool
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #108 - Jan 21st, 2025 at 11:09am
 
The "big three" are looking good for Dutton. Can WA and SA save Albo?

Even in those two states, the Labor lead is reducing.  Grin

...
...
...
...
...
...
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Daves2017
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 1417
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #109 - Jan 22nd, 2025 at 5:39pm
 
“Voters swing to Dutton as Australians expect to be worse off in 2025
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton now holds a lead as preferred prime minister over incumbent Anthony Albanese.
Peter Dutton leads Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, ahead by 39 to 34 per cent after being tied on the key question at the end of last year.“

“SMH

I don’t believe labor has the time to dump Albo which is there only chance.

This due to the internal rules Rudd made up to protect himself and his faceless men.

If the green vote collapsed as predicted it will be a Lnp majority government!
Back to top
 

Immigration, not climate change, is the biggest threat to our economy and our environment.
 
IP Logged
 
Grappler Deep State Feller
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 85634
Always was always will be HOME
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #110 - Jan 22nd, 2025 at 6:07pm
 
Darwin Has Fallen

Brisbane Has Fallen

Transylvania Has Fallen

Washington Has Fallen

NEXT!!!  The betrayal of 61 to suit 39 will not go unnoticed.
Back to top
 

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams
 
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #111 - Jan 23rd, 2025 at 12:47am
 
The figures are getting even more ugly for Labor in Victoria.

It seems that Albo's early "unofficial campaign" has backfired.
The more people see his ugly face and hear his whining voice, the worse it gets for him and Labor.

...


Nationally, the swing has grown to 2.6% Dutton is now equal with or ahead of Albo as Preferred PM.  Shocked

Vic has blown out to 5.3%  Grin
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Jasin
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 50111
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #112 - Jan 23rd, 2025 at 7:29am
 
Inaction.
Democrats, ALP, France
Back to top
 

AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #113 - Jan 24th, 2025 at 9:54am
 
BTW, there is one poll out today showing the Primary vote for State Labor here in Victoria is now at 22 odd percent.  Shocked

I don't think that poll is accurate but I do think Labor is going to be smashed at the next State election. So much economic waste and mismanagement is enough to turn even die-hard Labor voters against them.

The poll finds Labor plunging six points from an already weak position to 22%, with the Coalition up four to 42% and the Greens steady on 13% (the same sample of respondents in the federal poll published earlier this week had Labor at 25%, the Coalition at 38% and the Greens at 13%). Brad Battin debuts with a 37-27 lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier, compared with a 30-29 lead for John Pesutto in the November result. Twenty-eight per cent rated themselves more likely to vote Liberal after the leadership change compared with 11%, while 11% rated themselves more likely and 18% less likely to vote Labor on account of the rather less newsworthy fact of former Treasurer Tim Pallas’s retirement.

Albo will cop some of the collateral damage this year at the Federal poll too.  Wink
Back to top
« Last Edit: Jan 24th, 2025 at 10:06am by Captain Nemo »  

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #114 - Jan 27th, 2025 at 12:05am
 
As reported in The Australian, Newspoll has become the last poll series to return for the year, showing the
Coalition
opening up a
51
-
49
two-party lead
after a 50-50 result in the last poll in early December.
Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 31%
, its equal worst result for the term, with the
Coalition steady on 39%
, the
Greens up one to 12%
and
One Nation steady on 7%
. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are his worst result to date at both ends, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up three to 57%, while Peter Dutton is up one to 40% and steady on 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 45-38 to 44-41, also Albanese’s weakest showing this term. The poll also finds
24% expect a Coalition majority government, 29% a Coalition minority
,
33% a Labor minority and 15% a Labor majority
.
The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1259.
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #115 - Jan 29th, 2025 at 10:12am
 
Latest MORGAN Poll:

ALP 29.5
L-NP 40.5
Green 11.5
ON 6
IND 9* other 3.5


* on readout everywhere, likely would get less at election "held now"

2PP
52
-
48
(=) by respondent prefs
51 to L-NP (-1) by last-election
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #116 - Jan 30th, 2025 at 11:21am
 
Another one bites the dust. (Rats deserting the sinking ship?)

Stephen Jones to leave parliament

David Crowe
January 30, 2025 — 9.33am

Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones will leave politics at this year’s federal election in a fourth departure from the Albanese government, surprising colleagues with the news before parliament resumes next week.

Jones, a senior member of the Labor Left and a longstanding supporter of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, confirmed his resignation in a statement on Thursday morning but gave no reason for his departure.

The announcement comes as Jones seeks support in parliament for changes to superannuation and a new regime to crack down on financial scams while also heading into the federal budget scheduled for March 25.

...
Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones unveiled the government’s anti-scam laws in October.Credit:Dominic Lorrimer

“I want to express my immense gratitude to my community for the faith and trust they have placed in me to be their representative since 2010,” Jones said in the statement, published at 9.30am.

“I want to thank the prime minister for his friendship and support over many decades and for the trust he has placed in me to be the assistant treasurer and minister for financial services.

“To my family and friends, whose love and support has enabled me to represent our great community with the dedication it deserves, I thank you wholeheartedly.​”

Earlier, colleagues suggested Jones’ resignation appeared to be due to personal factors, including his marriage to a long-term friend last year, leading him to choose a life outside politics.

Jones worked as the national secretary of the Community and Public Sector Union from 1993 and became its national secretary for five years until 2010 when he entered parliament.

He holds the NSW seat of Whitlam, which covers parts of the Illawarra and Southern Highlands, which he won with 60.1 per cent of the vote in two-party terms at the last election.

Former Indigenous Australians minister
Linda Burney
and former skills minister
Brendan O’Connor
left the cabinet last July but have remained in parliament on the backbench until the election, allowing for a smooth transition to replace them in the ministry and Labor to find candidates for their seats.

Former government services minister
Bill Shorten
said last September he would leave government and took up a post as vice chancellor of the University of Canberra this month. He has left parliament, and his seat will be filled at the general election, avoiding the need for a byelection.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/stephen-jones-to-leave-parliament-202...
Back to top
« Last Edit: Jan 30th, 2025 at 11:48am by Captain Nemo »  

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Captain Nemo
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 11022
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #117 - Jan 30th, 2025 at 12:12pm
 
A handy site for those interested in the various seats:

...


https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/
Back to top
 

The 2025 election could be a shocker.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18117
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #118 - Jan 30th, 2025 at 1:42pm
 
And in other news - Labor's Nature Positive Plan is back on the table. So much for Albo removing it. Roll Eyes
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Grappler Deep State Feller
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 85634
Always was always will be HOME
Gender: male
Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #119 - Jan 30th, 2025 at 5:46pm
 
Again - I predict Untergang for Labor and its allies for the Usual Reasons that we all know.
Back to top
 

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams
 
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 11
Send Topic Print