RedBridge Group has its first federal poll since November (not counting its MRP poll with Accent Research), which has the
Coalition leading 51.5
-48.5
on two-party preferred compared with a 50-50 result last time. On the
primary vote, Labor is down three to 31%
, the
Coalition up two to 40%
and the
Greens steady on 11%
.
The poll also finds Coalition supporters are more firm in their voting intention (61% solid versus 34% soft) than Labor voters (51% solid and 39% soft).
Attendant media coverage is making much of
regional breakdowns showing a 9% swing against Labor in the outer suburbs, compared with 5% in the inner and middle suburbs, essential no change in provincial cities, and a 3% swing in Labor’s favour in rural areas, although the error margins on these individuals breakdowns are around 6%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1013.
The regular weekly
Roy Morgan poll likewise records the
Coalition with a 51.5
-48.5
lead on both the respondent-allocated and previous election flow measures of two-party preferred (which were respectively 50-50 and 50.5-49.5 in Labor’s favour last time).
The
primary votes are Labor 29%
(down one),
Coalition 40.5%
(up two),
Greens 11%
(down half) and
One Nation 4%
(down one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1688.
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