The regular
Newspoll from The Australian finds the
Coalition leading , unchanged on three weeks ago, from
primary votes of
(steady),
(down one),
Greens (steady) and
One Nation (undecided).
Anthony Albanese is steady at approval and up one on
disapproval to , while
Peter Dutton is respectively up one to
and steady on
.
Preferred prime minister result Albanese’s lead widens 44-41 to
). The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1244.
YouGov has the first of what it promises will be regular multi-level regression and post-stratification polling, a formidable effort compiled from 40,689 interviews conducted between January 22 and February 12. This produces estimates for all 150 electorates based on their demography, which you can learn more about on the YouGov site.
https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51612-mrp-coming-soonIts
median projection is
73 seats
for the Coalition
,
,
and
1
each for the
Greens
,
Katter’s Australian Party
and the
Centre Alliance.
For all the talk of Victoria, it suggests
Labor’s biggest headache is New South Wales, where it trails in
Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Hunter, Macquarie, Paterson, Robertson, Shortland and Werriwa. A summary list names
Labor’s other projected losses as Aston, Chisholm and McEwen in Victoria,
Bullwinkel and Tangney in Western Australia, and
Lyons in Tasmania, though there may be more to it than that because the full data set also finds the
Liberals marginally favoured in Boothby in South Australia.
With the caveat that MRP has a better record with standard two-party contests than with minor parties and independents,
Labor is favoured in all three of the Greens-held seats in Brisbane (even historically conservative Ryan) and to recover Fowler from Dai Le, while the teal incumbents are reckoned to be “safe”.In terms of national voting intention, the
Coalition leads on two party preferred from
primary votes of , , and .An excellent results display allows you to bring up each electorate’s results individually and download a full data set.
https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025