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Poll Poll
Question: 2025 Election predictions

Labor returns with majority Gov    
  3 (13.0%)
Labor forms minority Gov    
  7 (30.4%)
Shock horror! LNP majority Gov    
  9 (39.1%)
LNP forms minority Gov    
  4 (17.4%)




Total votes: 23
« Last Modified by: Captain Nemo on: Sep 28th, 2024 at 9:49am »

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2025 Election predictions (Read 6627 times)
Dnarever
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #135 - Feb 14th, 2025 at 11:13pm
 
Daves2017 wrote on Feb 14th, 2025 at 11:03pm:
It might have been more beneficial for labor if they hadn’t won the last election?

They certainly pick up a huge load of left over manure from Scomo and sons.


Yes but that is true of every election.
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #136 - Feb 14th, 2025 at 11:16pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Feb 14th, 2025 at 10:08pm:
Quote:
2025 Election predictions


I predict that it will be a Saturday.

I predict that I will vote at a local school or if not vote early.

I predict that I will not vote for a Liberal.

I predict that the independents will not research very well. (I intend to visit them this time).

I predict that the Green candidate in my area will be a nut. (hope to be wrong).



Yep - you're a rusted on Labor voter -

no matter how bad Albo is you will still vote for him.   Roll Eyes
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions - Dutton to copy Trump
Reply #137 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 5:31am
 
Election campaign.

Dutton is copying Trump - a new DOGE - dept. of Govt efficiency.

https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/12/australian-public-service-peter-dutton-effi...


Peter Dutton wants to DOGE-ify the public service.

Andrew Podger February 12, 2025

Dutton’s commitment

Dutton’s Insiders interview followed his lecture at the Menzies Research Centre. In the interview, Dutton referred to the possibility of $24 billion of savings over the four-year forward estimates — $6 billion a year — from reversing the growth in APS employees over the past three years.


more here:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/27/from-doge-to-smoge-peter-...
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #138 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 12:40pm
 
Saw an interesting clip on ABC news 24 this morning.

Both sides of politics are secretly and seriously considering death taxes.

They want to take a large portion of any inheritance you get
if say your parents die.
That means that if you are living in your family home you'll lose it.
You'll have to sell it and give the Govt perhaps half the money.
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #139 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 1:48pm
 
45% death taxes in the UK:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a80b50ee5274a2e8ab51b53/5013_Tax...



The Taxation of Pensions Act received Royal Assent on 19 December 2014. From April
2015 lump sum death benefits paid from a registered pension scheme or non-UK pension
scheme are taxed at 45% where the owner of the pension rights dies age 75 or over.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #140 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 2:01pm
 
LTYC loves Anal. Something about being snoop dog on the sniff
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #141 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 2:11pm
 
Jasin wrote on Feb 15th, 2025 at 2:01pm:
LTYC loves Anal. Something about being snoop dog on the sniff



LTYC is a homo -

not that .....
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #142 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 2:29pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Feb 15th, 2025 at 12:40pm:
Saw an interesting clip on ABC news 24 this morning.

Both sides of politics are secretly and seriously considering death taxes.

They want to take a large portion of any inheritance you get
if say your parents die.
That means that if you are living in your family home you'll lose it.
You'll have to sell it and give the Govt perhaps half the money.




Many countries have death taxes.
Almost every country is in massive debt - they are broke
including us - $1.2 trillion of Federal debt -
so they will steal any pile of money they can get their hands on
to pay the interest.
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Grappler Deep State Feller
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #143 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 4:44pm
 
I think AlboGroup is dead in the water... the failure began on Day One of the 'voice' madness... and hasn't picked up yet.. I doubt anyone is going to forget the Voice By Stealth pushed by the Labor states - which is a large part of why they are being thrashed .... the people will never be happy at seeing their votes ignored and ridden over ...

Hardly spoken about in the media, of course - they are hoping that dog is sleeping enough to not be noticed .... they are wrong, of course.... the people want their rights back ... and for the Abos - some REAL solutions instead of pandering to them every time.
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams
 
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #144 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 6:01pm
 
Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Feb 15th, 2025 at 4:44pm:
I think AlboGroup is dead in the water... the failure began on Day One of the 'voice' madness... and hasn't picked up yet.. I doubt anyone is going to forget the Voice By Stealth pushed by the Labor states - which is a large part of why they are being thrashed .... the people will never be happy at seeing their votes ignored and ridden over ...

Hardly spoken about in the media, of course - they are hoping that dog is sleeping enough to not be noticed .... they are wrong, of course.... the people want their rights back ... and for the Abos - some REAL solutions instead of pandering to them every time.



Yes - Labor is on the nose all across Australia:

mass uncontrolled immigration causing a housing crisis,
pressure on hospitals, schools, roads and all infrastructure,
wasting money – $450 million wasted on "the voice."
signing up for 8 AUKUS nuke subs at 9 times the correct price for $360 billion,
out of control prices on everything.
Albo never answers any questions in parliament.
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Bobby.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #145 - Feb 15th, 2025 at 10:01pm
 
The upcoming election.
We have been ripped off over submarines.
Is Labor to blame?
ScoMo signed it but did he know:


Look at the actual cost of the subs that the Yanks pay:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine

Quote:
Planned cost: about US$1.65 billion each (based on FY95 dollars, 30-boat class and two boat/year build-rate)
Actual cost: US$1.5 billion (in 1994 prices), US$2.6 billion (in 2012 prices)[108][109]
Annual operating cost: $50 million per unit (in 2012 prices)


Let's say that the cost is A$5 billion each.

We're paying $368 billion for 8 subs.
368/8 = $46 billion for each sub, 46b/5b = 9
which is about 9 times the price that we should be paying.

I know – yes -
we will get submarine manufacturing Australian locations in the deal but still -
why should we pay 9 times the price?
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #146 - Feb 16th, 2025 at 9:45pm
 
The regular Newspoll from The Australian finds the Coalition leading
51
-
49
, unchanged on three weeks ago, from primary votes of
Labor 31%
(steady),
Coalition 38%
(down one), Greens
12%
(steady) and One Nation
7%
(undecided).

Anthony Albanese is steady at
37%
approval
and up one on disapproval to
58%
, while Peter Dutton is respectively up one to
41%
and steady on
51%
.

Preferred prime minister result Albanese’s lead widens 44-41 to
45
-
40
). The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1244.



YouGov has the first of what it promises will be regular multi-level regression and post-stratification polling, a formidable effort compiled from 40,689 interviews conducted between January 22 and February 12. This produces estimates for all 150 electorates based on their demography, which you can learn more about on the YouGov site. https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51612-mrp-coming-soon

Its
median projection is
73 seats
for the Coalition
,
66
for Labor
,
8
for independents
and
1
each for the
Greens
,
Katter’s Australian Party
and the Centre Alliance.

For all the talk of Victoria, it suggests Labor’s biggest headache is New South Wales, where it trails in Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Hunter, Macquarie, Paterson, Robertson, Shortland and Werriwa. A summary list names Labor’s other projected losses as Aston, Chisholm and McEwen in Victoria, Bullwinkel and Tangney in Western Australia, and Lyons in Tasmania, though there may be more to it than that because the full data set also finds the Liberals marginally favoured in Boothby in South Australia.

With the caveat that MRP has a better record with standard two-party contests than with minor parties and independents, Labor is favoured in all three of the Greens-held seats in Brisbane (even historically conservative Ryan) and to recover Fowler from Dai Le, while the teal incumbents are reckoned to be “safe”.

In terms of national voting intention, the Coalition leads
51.1
-
48.9
on two party preferred
from primary votes of
Labor 29.1%
,
Coalition 37.4%
,
Greens 12.7%
and
One Nation 9.1%
.


An excellent results display allows you to bring up each electorate’s results individually and download a full data set.

https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025
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The 2025 election could be a shocker.
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Baronvonrort
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #147 - Feb 16th, 2025 at 10:51pm
 
It will be

Labor-Greens -Teals , with Greens and Teals reaming Labor
A disaster.

Liberals One Nation Libertarian.
One Nation and Libertarian to keep Dutton honest.

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Leftists and the Ayatollahs have a lot in common when it comes to criticism of Islam, they don't tolerate it.
 
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #148 - Feb 16th, 2025 at 11:26pm
 
Not Labor by a landslide - Labor IS the landslide.  If the people forget this treachery they are not worth saving....

One roll of the dice... if the Eld Gel and I don't sell and buy in a quiet spot for her - and me - closer to requirements..... and we still sell up and then go into rental with cash in the bank - I'm leaving Australia - like I should have done in the early 1970's.... one year to go I said to my then Professor gf who went to England - and I'm on that plane... just one more year to serve, baby, one more year than I deserve ...... shattered shoulder and then battling to get a living.... just slipped away, and nobody wants to know you.  Somewhere a wrong direction, I ran out of songs to play ....

Truly - I linked with a past gf (different) on DNA - we're related.... and she still hates my guts after fifty years for dropping her when I found out we were related ........  FFS... that was about it for me with this mad country.

So - maybe long overdue with the prof in England - or I've got a neurosurgeon in Switzerland.  Phark this mad house.
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #149 - Feb 23rd, 2025 at 11:30pm
 
The monthly
Resolve Strategic poll
for the Nine Newspapers offers
cold water for the notion that an interest rate cut might have improved Labor’s fortunes, giving the government its worst result for the term
: Labor is down two points on the
primary vote to
25%
, the Coalition is up one to
39%
, the Greens are steady on
13%
, and One Nation is up two to a new high of
9%


Having earlier shied away from two-party measures, the pollster is evidently now regularly publishing respondent-allocated figures, which in this case have
the Coalition lead blowing out from 52-48 to
55
-
45
.
Applying 2022 election preference flows would have it at 53-47.

There are only slight movements on leadership ratings, with Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton both up a point on both approval and disapproval, Albanese to 37% approval and 58% disapproval and Dutton to 41% approval and 51% disapproval.
Dutton leads
39
-
35
as preferred prime minister
, out from 39-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday (the day of the rate cut) to Sunday from a sample of 1506.
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The 2025 election could be a shocker.
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