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Poll Poll
Question: 2025 Election predictions

Labor returns with majority Gov    
  2 (12.5%)
Labor forms minority Gov    
  5 (31.2%)
Shock horror! LNP majority Gov    
  6 (37.5%)
LNP forms minority Gov    
  3 (18.8%)




Total votes: 16
« Last Modified by: Captain Nemo on: Sep 28th, 2024 at 9:49am »

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2025 Election predictions (Read 1851 times)
Captain Nemo
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #15 - Oct 13th, 2024 at 9:18pm
 
Newspoll:
51
-
49
to Coalition


Marginal changes on the primary vote prove sufficient to give the Coalition a two-party lead in Newspoll for the first time this term.


The latest Newspoll records a two-party lead for the Coalition for the first time since this term, at 51-49 after a 50-50 result three weeks ago, though both major parties are unchanged on the
primary vote, Labor at 31%
and the
Coalition at 38%
.
The movement is down to a one-point drop for the Greens to 12% and a one-point increase for One Nation to 7%. Anthony Albanese is down three on approval to 40% and up three on disapproval to 54%, edging out past results in August (41% and 54%) and last November (40% and 53%) as his worst net result for the term. Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 38% and steady at 52%, with preferred prime minister narrowing from 46-37 to
45
-
37
. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #16 - Oct 15th, 2024 at 11:31am
 
Anthony Albanese buys $4.3 million ‘clifftop perfection’ property.

Wow, the optics of this during a cost of living crisis.   Roll Eyes

Blimey, couldn't wait six months? This kind of stuff proves he has lost any political nous he may have once had.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #17 - Oct 21st, 2024 at 8:50am
 
The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll in the Financial Review has the
Coalition with a lead
of
51
-
49
, a slight improvement for Labor on a 52-48 result last time.

The primary votes are all but entirely unchanged, with
Labor steady on 30%
, the
Coalition down one to 41%
and the
Greens steady on 13%
.

Despite the headline result, the changes on personal ratings favour the Coalition, with Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 45-41 to
44
-
43
.

Peter
Dutton is up three on approval to 37%
and up one on
disapproval to 39%
, while
Anthony Albanese is up one to 35%
and
steady on 49%
.

The poll also got in quick with a question on the Prime Minister’s headline-grabbing $4.3 million property purchase last week, finding 36% saying it had worsened their view of him, 4% that it had improved it, and 52% that it had no impact. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1034.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #18 - Oct 21st, 2024 at 11:29am
 
It's far too early to make any definitive predictions. While I would have preferred Labor to perform better, they must still be held accountable for falling short of expectations. But does that necessarily warrant their removal from office?

The alternatives are undeniably worse, and we need to find a middle ground. However, I hope that doesn’t result in another unstable Labor/Greens minority government.

The only safe prediction I can make at this stage is that, regardless of the outcome, the usual suspects will insist the results validate their pre-existing obsessions. Reality hasn’t held much sway with them thus far, and I see no reason why that should change any time soon. Calling this a prediction may be a cheap shot, given its inevitability, but it’s simply too early to offer anything more informed.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #19 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 11:24am
 
After ticking in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago, the latest Essential Research poll ticks back with a four point drop to
28%
(down a point on two polls ago), while the Coalition recovers the point it lost last time to hit
35%
.

The Greens are steady on
12%
, One Nation is down one to
7%
, and undecided component is up one to 6%.

The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has shown a tight tussle for around a year now, has the Coalition up one to
48%
and Labor down three to
46%
.

The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which give Peter Dutton his best results to date, his approval up three to
45%
and disapproval down three to 39%. Anthony Albanese is up two to
44%
and up one on disapproval to 48%.

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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #20 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 11:28am
 
...

...
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #21 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 11:56am
 
And ... as another nail in Albo Labor's coffin:

AEMO head ‘cannot guarantee’ cheaper power under current roadmap


Australian Energy Market Operator chief executive Daniel Westerman has told a Senate committee that the electricity market roadmap was on the ‘lowest cost pathway’ but that was no guarantee for consumers of electricity prices coming down.

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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #22 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 12:37pm
 
Australian elections are irrelevant. Nothing changes after an election. All the promises expired on election night.

WGAF.
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Please don't thank me. Effusive fawning and obeisance of disciples, mendicants, and foot-kissers embarrass me.
 
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #23 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 1:34pm
 
You left out - "Deep Sorrow For Voters Whichever".

You KNOW our politicians are a few boats short of a ferry service .... in many ways .....
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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #24 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 1:35pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Oct 23rd, 2024 at 11:56am:
And ... as another nail in Albo Labor's coffin:

AEMO head ‘cannot guarantee’ cheaper power under current roadmap


Australian Energy Market Operator chief executive Daniel Westerman has told a Senate committee that the electricity market roadmap was on the ‘lowest cost pathway’ but that was no guarantee for consumers of electricity prices coming down.



Yeah - that's the way - got to have an overpaid and over-perked 'chief executive' for Moving Deck Chairs .... to do a job a clerk could do and already does.
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #25 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 3:46pm
 
If Albo Labor was banking on a rate cut just prior to next year's Federal election, they may be facing yet another nail in the coffin if this inflation prediction is correct:


IMF inflation warning: World goes low as we stay high


The IMF has issued a grim inflation outlook for Australia.


Australia’s run of high inflation is on track to exceed all advanced economies except Slovakia’s, ­according to new IMF forecasts that will increase pressure on the ­Albanese government.

...
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #26 - Oct 23rd, 2024 at 11:02pm
 
Election day, 2025, from the perspective of the voters .........

.....like a lonely Australian traveler on a moonless night, who, hearing footsteps behind him, fears to turn around, so instead raises and looks in a mirror darkly.......... and so views what band of loathsome beasts is shuffling its way towards Canberra this time around ...
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #27 - Oct 26th, 2024 at 9:52am
 
“mired in mediocrity”
  Grin  Nailed it!


Kim Carr’s memoir is an elegy for older-style Labor politics. Only time will tell if it’s an elegy for the Labor project itself

Frank Bongiorno

The former senior minister seems nostalgic for a time when the ALP could rely on a large base of blue-collar workers and their families

...
The moniker ‘true believer’ could almost have been invented for former Labor minister Kim Carr, writes ANU prof Frank Bongiorno. His memoir adds him to a chorus of former party heavyweights criticising the Albanese government. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP


The moniker “true believer” could almost have been invented for Kim Carr. Indeed, he began his almost 30-year Senate career at the very election, 1993, that Paul Keating claimed had been a “victory for the true believers”.

His career was devoted to the proposition that if Australia embraced new technologies and developed the right skill base, it could still make things – an idea that seems to be fashionable in federal Labor government circles again.

It, therefore, matters that he has joined the growing number of former senior Labor politicians who have become increasingly critical of the direction of the Albanese government.

Carr is critical of the small target strategy that Anthony Albanese used to get into office, his policies being “more like running repairs than substantial reforms”. The party, says Carr, has become alienated from low-income voters, leaning in to an “identity politics” that has caused it to lose touch with its traditional support base – whose welfare was really Labor’s raison d’être.


Carr could fairly be described as “old school Labor”. His memoir, A Long March, published this month by Monash University Publishing, does nothing to dispel that impression.

Carr, the product of a working-class family – his father was a boilermaker – joined the Labor party in 1975 amid the outrage over the dismissal of the Whitlam government. He was a senior minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, as minister for innovation, industry, science and research. He played an important role in forming the Rudd-Gillard “dream team” in 2006. He was a victim of its later disintegration, which resulted in Julia Gillard’s demotion of him.

Carr cannot be dismissed as a lone voice, for he is among several former Labor heavyweights deeply worried about the government’s direction. Others include former New South Wales premier Bob Carr, former foreign minister Gareth Evans and – the hardest critic of all – former prime minister Paul Keating, all mostly concerned with Aukus. Bill Kelty, an architect of Labor’s Accord of the 1980s and 1990s and former Australian Council of Trade Unions leader of deep influence in that era, has described the government as “mired in mediocrity”.


Recent media commentary suggests that some present government members, including Albanese, are finding this running commentary frustrating. But it is not new for former leaders to criticise aspects of government policy from the sidelines after they have ceased to be active politicians. Gough Whitlam had some hard things to say about the government run by Bob Hawke and Keating on occasion, such as the reintroduction of university fees. Keating was critical of the Whitlam government’s economic performance. Whitlam responded in kind, calling him “a smart-arse”. No one seemed unduly worried on either side.

It seems different now. While getting re-elected was no doddle in the 1980s and 1990s, governments seem to have an even more precarious existence these days. If they are more sensitive to the criticism of party elders, it possibly reflects a stronger sense of the fragility of their hold on power.


There is also the question of whether the critics are imagining a past that was better than it actually was. Carr can sometimes seem nostalgic for a Labor party able to rely on a large base of blue-collar workers and their families for support in an economy that still employed large numbers of workers in manufacturing, mining and transport. Senior Labor figures of the 1980s on the right of the party, such as Keating or Bob Carr, who were notably pro-American when in office, can seem inconsistent or even hypocritical when offering meaty criticism of the government for positioning itself too closely to the United States today.

It is, however, alarming to learn from Carr’s memoir of the lack of debate within the opposition under Albanese when Scott Morrison presented it with the fait accompli of Aukus in 2021. There was no caucus vote on its acceptance. And, since Labor came to office, it has been hard to discern in the party’s internal affairs since then the kind of robust debate and disagreement that has previously been a feature of the Labor party when it contemplates foreign and defence policy. As we are often reminded by those who look back to “better” times, Hawke was overruled by his own party in the mid-1980s after he agreed to allow America to test MX missiles off the Australian coast.


...
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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #28 - Oct 26th, 2024 at 9:54am
 
Every federal Labor government since Andrew Fisher’s in 1910 – the first to win a national election – has been criticised by people on its side of politics for not going far enough or fast enough. The Albanese government is no different in that respect. But the word “timidity” is increasingly being thrown about when the government is mentioned, and it does not have the positive spin of the “caution” or “moderation” heard earlier in the government’s life.

Carr’s A Long March is, in some respects, an elegy for an older kind of Labor politics. Only time will tell if it turns out to be an elegy for the Labor project itself.


Frank Bongiorno is Professor of History at the Australian National University and is in conversation with Kim Carr at the Canberra Writers festival on 27 October

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/26/kim-carr-memoir-elegy-labo...

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Re: 2025 Election predictions
Reply #29 - Oct 26th, 2024 at 9:58am
 
Nobody wants idiot Dutton in power other than the Murdoch press.

Liberals have been led by a string of idiots and the Liberal political body rejected intellectuals like Turnbull.

There will never be an intellectual Liberal Prime Minister, only idiots like Abbott and Dutton.
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