Australian Politics Forum - Israel and Iran at War?

MeisterEckhart

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Israel and Iran at War?
Oct 1^st, 2024 at 10:57am

Israel will continue to goad the Iranian Mullahs into war, humiliating Iran among its proxies, the region and the world.

So why don't the Mullahs make a stand?

Not because of any fear of Israeli military superiority... not their first fear, at least.

Iran is not an ethnostate.

Their greatest fear is that a general mobilisation of the Iranian people would almost certainly be the last thing the Mullahs do before internal Iranian tensions wipe them from power and rip them apart like Gaddafi.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #1 - Oct 1^st, 2024 at 11:13am

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 1^st, 2024 at 10:57am:

Israel will continue to goad the Iranian Mullahs into war, humiliating Iran among its proxies, the region and the world.

So why don't the Mullahs make a stand?

Not because of any fear of Israeli military superiority... not their first fear, at least.

Fear of the US military...

Quote:

Iran is not an ethnostate.

Their greatest fear is that a general mobilisation of the Iranian people would almost certainly be the last thing the Mullahs do before internal Iranian tensions wipe them from power and rip them apart like Gaddafi.

Iranians hate the Jewish state more than they hate the Mullahs.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #2 - Oct 1^st, 2024 at 11:51am

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 1^st, 2024 at 11:13am:

Quote:

Iran is not an ethnostate.

Their greatest fear is that a general mobilisation of the Iranian people would almost certainly be the last thing the Mullahs do before internal Iranian tensions wipe them from power and rip them apart like Gaddafi.

Iranians hate the Jewish state more than they hate the Mullahs.

No they don't... Persians, after nearly 1000 years of ethnic cleansing, only now constitute 51% of the population.

Minority ethnicities making up the other 49%, mainly in the north, southeast and southwest of Iran resent Persian domination in their territory.

The Mullahs would be fools to test non-Persian loyalty to them under a general mobilisation.

Even among the Persian (slim) majority, the Mullahs would be double-fools to assume complete loyalty.

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Gnads

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #3 - Oct 1^st, 2024 at 12:08pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 1^st, 2024 at 11:13am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 1^st, 2024 at 10:57am:

Israel will continue to goad the Iranian Mullahs into war, humiliating Iran among its proxies, the region and the world.

So why don't the Mullahs make a stand?

Not because of any fear of Israeli military superiority... not their first fear, at least.

Fear of the US military...

Quote:

Iran is not an ethnostate.

Their greatest fear is that a general mobilisation of the Iranian people would almost certainly be the last thing the Mullahs do before internal Iranian tensions wipe them from power and rip them apart like Gaddafi.

Iranians hate the Jewish state more than they hate the Mullahs.

Do they? I think you made that up.

Certain Iranians might like the Mullahs & other extremists but the whole population??

Nah ... I don't think so.

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"When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid." ~ Ricky Gervais

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tallowood Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6048	Re: Israel and Iran at War? Reply #4 - Oct 1^st, 2024 at 12:28pm Iranians speaking out online in support of Israel could face criminal punishment from the authoritarian regime - but that is not stopping everyone.
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #5 - Oct 1^st, 2024 at 12:36pm

Another process is the spate of calculated assassinations of senior Iranians, or Iranian-Mullah allies.

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani is a good example.

The Mullahs valued him as the divider-in-chief of Iranian minorities... And now, not.

Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah...

Pun intended... The Mullahs-supporting Persians are having the rug pulled from under them.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #6 - Oct 1^st, 2024 at 12:55pm

So, what's really going on?

What is staying the hands of chiefly the Israelis and the US is not fear of the Iranian regime... But what might happen after the regime collapses.

Does Iran erupt into civil war?

Do the Iranian ethnic Arabs and the Kurds attempt to create their own states?

Do the minority Iranian Sunnis agitate for their own state allied to Saudi Arabia?

Does an Iranian civil war spill over into Iraq?

It seems the Mullahs' strongest defence is the weakness of the bonds that (don't) tie Iranians to each other.

The best guess would be that Israel and the US want to convince the Mullahs that there is no future in Iran's sponsoring proxy wars.

For that they'll get to keep their power.

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athos Gold Member Offline Re-educate barbarians Posts: 6401 Hong Kong Gender:	Re: Israel and Iran at War? Reply #7 - Oct 2^nd, 2024 at 8:41pm https://x.com/WorldWarNow_/status/1841276200657776995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #8 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 8:16am

So, back to the standard schtick... Iran fires rockets easily brought down by Israeli defences.

Next step?

Expect targeted Israeli assassination(s) of Iranian nuclear scientists, senior Iranian military officers, Hezbollah, Hamas or Houthi leaders hiding out in Iran or somewhere within the region...

Then another Israeli attempt at establishing a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

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Grappler Truth Teller Feller

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #9 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 9:38am

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 8:16am:

So, back to the standard schtick... Iran fires rockets easily brought down by Israeli defences.

Next step?

Expect targeted Israeli assassination(s) of Iranian nuclear scientists, senior Iranian military officers, Hezbollah, Hamas or Houthi leaders hiding out in Iran or somewhere within the region...

Then another Israeli attempt at establishing a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

all perfectly reasonable steps.

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Grappler Truth Teller Feller

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #10 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 9:39am

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 1^st, 2024 at 12:55pm:

So, what's really going on?

What is staying the hands of chiefly the Israelis and the US is not fear of the Iranian regime... But what might happen after the regime collapses.

Does Iran erupt into civil war?

Do the Iranian ethnic Arabs and the Kurds attempt to create their own states?

Do the minority Iranian Sunnis agitate for their own state allied to Saudi Arabia?

Does an Iranian civil war spill over into Iraq?

It seems the Mullahs' strongest defence is the weakness of the bonds that (don't) tie Iranians to each other.

The best guess would be that Israel and the US want to convince the Mullahs that there is no future in Iran's sponsoring proxy wars.

For that they'll get to keep their power.

Realpolitik - as long as they kill one another who cares?

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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tallowood Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6048	Re: Israel and Iran at War? Reply #11 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 10:01am אני ישראל חי! ראש השנה שמח לכל היהודים וחברינו! שנכתוב כולנו בספר החיים לשנה מתוקה ושמחה! Am Yisrael Chai! To all Jews and friends, Happy Rosh Hashanah! May they all be written in the Book of Life for a sweet and happy year!
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #12 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 10:51am

Given the relative ease with which the Israelis and the US can coordinate targeted assassinations within Iran, it's clear that the Mullahs face a serious loyalty deficit among Iranians.

It's more than probable that this is the root cause of Iran's backing proxy wars against Israel - not to attempt to achieve the impossible: the destruction of Israel, but to ensure the survival of the (Shia) Islamic Republic 'island' in a 'sea' of hostile Sunni states.

While there is a real enemy 'at the door', the Mullahs can continue to justify their hardline, brutal oppression of the Iranian people.

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tallowood Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6048	Re: Israel and Iran at War? Reply #13 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 11:48am There are sizeable number of Persians who want return of monarchy to Iran, some of them are still in Iran. Unfortunately some of them have connection to old SAVAK, which, in the eyes of Western libs, was as bad as IRG. However they never stopped struggle against theocratic dictators.
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MeisterEckhart

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Re: Israel and Iran at War?
Reply #14 - Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 2:01pm

Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2024 at 9:39am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 1^st, 2024 at 12:55pm:

So, what's really going on?

What is staying the hands of chiefly the Israelis and the US is not fear of the Iranian regime... But what might happen after the regime collapses.

Does Iran erupt into civil war?

Do the Iranian ethnic Arabs and the Kurds attempt to create their own states?

Do the minority Iranian Sunnis agitate for their own state allied to Saudi Arabia?

Does an Iranian civil war spill over into Iraq?

It seems the Mullahs' strongest defence is the weakness of the bonds that (don't) tie Iranians to each other.

The best guess would be that Israel and the US want to convince the Mullahs that there is no future in Iran's sponsoring proxy wars.

For that they'll get to keep their power.

Realpolitik - as long as they kill one another who cares?

And that world trade is not brought to its knees by a catastrophic civil war within Iran that shuts down the Strait of Hormuz.

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