Australian Politics Forum - The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen

greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #15 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:28pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm:

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

So you haven't listened to Lichtman, then.

I sure have.

Dozens and dozens of interviews.

I hope he's right - I'm behind him 100%.

He'll be right about the popular vote, that's for sure.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #16 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:41pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:28pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm:

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

So you haven't listened to Lichtman, then.

I sure have.

Dozens and dozens of interviews.

I hope he's right - I'm behind him 100%.

He'll be right about the popular vote, that's for sure.

So he doesn't think or claim his model is infallible, then?

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #17 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:47pm

Something more dark and disturbing is that Lichtman says, in the 40 years he's been using his model publicly, this is the first time he's experienced a degree of vitriol against him so great that it has threatened his and his family's safety - that he's had to resort to enhancing his security for them and himself.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #18 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:54pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:41pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:28pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm:

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

So you haven't listened to Lichtman, then.

I sure have.

Dozens and dozens of interviews.

I hope he's right - I'm behind him 100%.

He'll be right about the popular vote, that's for sure.

So he doesn't think or claim his model is infallible, then?

Perhaps I should have said that some media outlets oversell it a bit

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #19 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:00pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:47pm:

Something more dark and disturbing is that Lichtman says, in the 40 years he's been using his model publicly, this is the first time he's experienced a degree of vitriol against him so great that it has threatened his and his family's safety - that he's had to resort to enhancing his security for them and himself.

Yep. Disgusting.

He makes a purely objective/non-partisan prediction, and the MAGA mob turns violent (as they always do).

Even if it was a subjective/partisan opinion, and he personally declared that he would really love to see Harris win, how does any sane person think that that justifies threats of violence?

“I’ve endured constant criticism for 42 years – I have never experienced the kind of hate that I have gotten this year,” Prof Lichtman told The National, two weeks before the 2024 US presidential election on November 5.

“I’ve gotten the most scurrilous, the most vulgar, the most violent, the most threatening type of feedback this time and I think it has to do with the kind of toxic politics since the advent of Donald Trump. We had nothing like that before Donald Trump.”

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #20 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:04pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:54pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:41pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:28pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm:

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

So you haven't listened to Lichtman, then.

I sure have.

Dozens and dozens of interviews.

I hope he's right - I'm behind him 100%.

He'll be right about the popular vote, that's for sure.

So he doesn't think or claim his model is infallible, then?

Perhaps I should have said that some media outlets oversell it a bit

Actually, nearly all media outlets massively undersell it, relying instead on two-horse-race reporting via polls that change daily (hourly, even!), which Lichtman rails against.

He calls it the pollster-media-political complex - a reference to Eisenhower's Military-Industrial complex. There a truckload of cash at stake by daily reporting of polls that pollsters and the media make during an election cycle by treating the election like a horse race. Politicians buy into it as it keeps their message fresh in the minds of voters.

Having said that, if Lichtman's model's predictions were the end of it, there might be a serious risk that many Americans wouldn't bother voting if it's a 'done deal', so the constant media focus via polls keeps the general public edgy and active - the weakness of non-mandatory voting!

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thegreatdivide

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #21 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Whereas Trump sounded presidential at his rally:

"African Americans, Latinos, Arab Amercans, they are all coming over to us, we will unite the country and MAGA"...

Not a good comparison for Harris /Dems.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #22 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:26pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:04pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:54pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:41pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:28pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:25pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm:

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

So you haven't listened to Lichtman, then.

I sure have.

Dozens and dozens of interviews.

I hope he's right - I'm behind him 100%.

He'll be right about the popular vote, that's for sure.

So he doesn't think or claim his model is infallible, then?

Perhaps I should have said that some media outlets oversell it a bit

Actually, nearly all media outlets massively undersell it, relying instead on two-horse-race reporting via polls that change daily (hourly, even!), which Lichtman rails against.

He calls it the pollster-media-political complex - a reference to Eisenhower's Military-Industrial complex. There a truckload of cash at stake by daily reporting of polls that pollsters and the media make during an election cycle by treating the election like a horse race. Politicians buy into it as it keeps their message fresh in the minds of voters.

Having said that, if Lichtman's model's predictions were the end of it, there might be a serious risk that many Americans wouldn't bother voting if it's a 'done deal', so the constant media focus via polls keeps the general public edgy and active - the weakness of non-mandatory voting!

Indeed.

This race will come down to which candidate can get their supporters off the couch.

Which is the biggest motivator - hatred or fear?

Trump supporters will get off the couch because they despise Kamala (and all women & people of colour) so much. They really don't care about Trump's policies (or lack thereof) - it's all about hate.

Harris supporters will go out and vote because they're genuinely worried about what Trump will do to the country.

55 million people have already voted.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #23 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:28pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Despite her 'deplorables' comment, she still received more votes than the rapist & convicted felon in 2016.

Millions more.

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Laugh till you cry

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #24 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:32pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:28pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Despite her 'deplorables' comment, she still received more votes than the rapist & convicted felon in 2016.

Millions more.

Hillary Clinton is an evil cow who was rightly splashed down in the wilderness by the poop-chute of history.

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Please don't thank me. Effusive fawning and obeisance of disciples, mendicants, and foot-kissers embarrass me.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #25 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:33pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:32pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:28pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Despite her 'deplorables' comment, she still received more votes than the rapist & convicted felon in 2016.

Millions more.

Hillary Clinton is an evil cow who was rightly splashed down in the wilderness by the poop-chute of history.

And still the American people preferred her over the rapist & convicted criminal.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #26 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:39pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:47pm:

Something more dark and disturbing is that Lichtman says, in the 40 years he's been using his model publicly, this is the first time he's experienced a degree of vitriol against him so great that it has threatened his and his family's safety - that he's had to resort to enhancing his security for them and himself.

Yes: the rise of China/Asia under neoclassical-determined WTO rules pauperized American blue-collar workers, and neither Repubs nor Dems did anything about it before Trump was president.

The 'dismal science' directed by flat-earth neoclassical economic orthodoxy has split the US into two hate-filled camps, neither of which understands the cause of the American rust belt and its concurrent weakening of US global hegemony.

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« Last Edit: Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:47pm by thegreatdivide »

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Laugh till you cry

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #27 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:40pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:33pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:32pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:28pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Despite her 'deplorables' comment, she still received more votes than the rapist & convicted felon in 2016.

Millions more.

Hillary Clinton is an evil cow who was rightly splashed down in the wilderness by the poop-chute of history.

And still the American people preferred her over the rapist & convicted criminal.

Clinton lost the election.

Fat cow Harris is going to lose as well. The GOP focused on increasing the runout of GOP voters which will overwhelm Harris's support.

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Please don't thank me. Effusive fawning and obeisance of disciples, mendicants, and foot-kissers embarrass me.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #28 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:43pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:40pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:33pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:32pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:28pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Despite her 'deplorables' comment, she still received more votes than the rapist & convicted felon in 2016.

Millions more.

Hillary Clinton is an evil cow who was rightly splashed down in the wilderness by the poop-chute of history.

And still the American people preferred her over the rapist & convicted criminal.

Clinton lost the election.

Try to focus, and don't change the subject.

No matter how bad Clinton might or might not have been, American voters preferred her over the rapist & convicted criminal.

Millions more Americans preferred her.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #29 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 2:04pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:43pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:40pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:33pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:32pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:28pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 1:20pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am:

It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people.

But we'll see.

Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.

Biden made a mistake today, calling Trump supporters "garbage"... even worse than Hillary's "deplorables" in 2016...

Despite her 'deplorables' comment, she still received more votes than the rapist & convicted felon in 2016.

Millions more.

Hillary Clinton is an evil cow who was rightly splashed down in the wilderness by the poop-chute of history.

And still the American people preferred her over the rapist & convicted criminal.

Clinton lost the election.

Try to focus, and don't change the subject.

No matter how bad Clinton might or might not have been, American voters preferred her over the rapist & convicted criminal.

Millions more Americans preferred her.

Confession: living dangerously, I'm secretly hoping Trump just scrapes in, which will likely bring the whole rotten global neoclassical economic system crashing down, as Trump scraps taxes, raises tarrifs, and "drill baby, drill.."

And dumb '50%+1' democracy is increasingly brought into disrepute.

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« Last Edit: Oct 31^st, 2024 at 2:12pm by thegreatdivide »

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