Australian Politics Forum - The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen

Armchair_Politician

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The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:31am

Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top.

Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/election-nostradamus-sta...

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Armchair_Politician Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 25786 Gender:	Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen Reply #1 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:32am Let’s hope he’s right and Trump loses, and loses convincingly!
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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #2 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:22am

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:32am:

Let’s hope he’s right and Trump loses, and loses convincingly!

Indeed.

Not that a convincing win would stop him from challenging the results.

Even if Harris wins with 450 electoral college votes, and a 20,000,000 vote lead in the popular vote, the rapist & convicted felon will still say that he won and he'll still dog whistle his cult members to start violent riots.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States and beat Republican rival Donald Trump on Election Day, or so historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman still predicts.

Known for correctly predicting the results of the last nine out of 10 presidential elections, Lichtman said on his YouTube channel Tuesday night that his prediction has not changed, despite Democratic nominee Harris' leads in battleground states shrinking and polls being nail-bitingly close.

"Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5," Lichtman said, "in defiance of the polls."

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Karnal

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #3 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:29am

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:32am:

Let’s hope he’s right and Trump loses, and loses convincingly!

You can't say that, Armchair, it's hate speech.

Mr Trump is running a positive campaign. Did you see his rally?

Melania held his hand and let him kiss her on the cheek. They were all there. Elon, Don Jnr, Dr Phil, Hulk Hogan. There was so much love in the room.

I'm not sure where Rudy was. Steve Bannon's still in jail. Mike Pence is lying low, hiding from the base.

As you do. When Mr Trump gets in, he's going to purge the Enemy Within. Dems, RINOs, the fakers, the lot. We're talking mass arrests on Day 1. Mr Trump will be our Dictator for a Day.

It's going to be beautiful, Armchair, you'll see.

DRAIN THE SWAMP !!!

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Laugh till you cry

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #4 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:40am

Enlarge the swamp. Suck everybody in. Make everybody suck until they are tired of sucking.

Obama's tan suit was a cloak of invisibility in the swamp. The creatures couldn't see what trickery the cleverly disguised white Obama was up to.

The poop-chute of history still has Karnal scheduled for a splashdown next to Greggy at a McDonalds on Novmber 6.

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SadKangaroo Gold Member Offline #FightStupid Posts: 16853 Mianjin (Brisbane)	Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen Reply #5 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:44am It's looking very likely that Trump will win, the system, is weighted towards him and the Republicans more so than the will of the people. But we'll see. Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump in 2020, it could happen again for Harris.
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Laugh till you cry Gold Member Offline Posts: 16620 In your happy place Gender:	Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen Reply #6 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:46am The GOP has been getting out the vote. Encouraging their supporters to vote early. Much of the 50 million early vote could be GOP. It could be a Trump landslide.
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Karnal

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #7 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:49am

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:22am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:32am:

Let’s hope he’s right and Trump loses, and loses convincingly!

Indeed.

Not that a convincing win would stop him from challenging the results.

Even if Harris wins with 450 electoral college votes, and a 20,000,000 vote lead in the popular vote, the rapist & convicted felon will still say that he won and he'll still dog whistle his cult members to start violent riots.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States and beat Republican rival Donald Trump on Election Day, or so historian and election forecaster Allan Lichtman still predicts.

Known for correctly predicting the results of the last nine out of 10 presidential elections, Lichtman said on his YouTube channel Tuesday night that his prediction has not changed, despite Democratic nominee Harris' leads in battleground states shrinking and polls being nail-bitingly close.

"Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5," Lichtman said, "in defiance of the polls."

Now now, Greggery. Mr Trump has promised to stand by the results of the election, believe me.

If it's rigged, that's another matter. Mr Trump needs to protect the will of the people. That's his job. As prez, remember, Mr Trump swore to protect the Constitution.

Mr Trump has recruited a few alternative delegates, just in case. He's also got a few friendly election officials in the swing states, at the local county level. They're there to run a fair election, Greggery. They'll be checking votes for fakery. Unlike previous elections, Illegals, dead voters and pets will not be allowed.

If the leftards cause any problems, Mr Trump's got Mike in Congress and his friends in the Supreme Court. You'll see, when Mr Trump wins, he'll honour the result of the election.

I trust this puts the matter to rest.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #8 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:49am

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:31am:

Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top.

Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/election-nostradamus-sta...

And Lichtman argues 10 out of 10 - that the 2000 election was, yep(!), stolen from Gore by the US Supreme Court when it prematurely stopped the Florida recount with Bush a few hundred votes ahead. At the time Jeb Bush, George W's brother, was the Governor of Florida.

Also, Lichtman's model has been successfully retroactively applied to every US election since Abraham Lincoln's in 1860.

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Karnal

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #9 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:53am

Laugh till you cry wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:40am:

Enlarge the swamp. Suck everybody in. Make everybody suck until they are tired of sucking.

Obama's tan suit was a cloak of invisibility in the swamp. The creatures couldn't see what trickery the cleverly disguised white Obama was up to.

The poop-chute of history still has Karnal scheduled for a splashdown next to Greggy at a McDonalds on Novmber 6.

White? Hussein Obama is from deepest, darkest Africa. Mr Trump had investigators over in Kenya, remember. They came up with stuff that would blow your mind.

Mr Trump will release it in due course, along with his medical report, his tax returns and the Epstein Client List.

DEEP STATE !!!

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #10 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:01pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:49am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:31am:

Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top.

Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/election-nostradamus-sta...

And Lichtman argues 10 out of 10 - that the 2000 election was, yep(!), stolen from Gore by the US Supreme Court when it prematurely stopped the Florida recount with Bush a few hundred votes ahead. At the time Jeb Bush, George W's brother, was the Governor of Florida.

Also, Lichtman's model has been successfully retroactively applied to every US election since Abraham Lincoln's in 1860.

It's certainly a very good model (although he oversells it a bit), and he might very well be right again this year.

However, even if Harris wins the electoral college, I doubt very much that we'll see her inaugurated in January 2025.

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Laugh till you cry

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #11 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:04pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:01pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:49am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:31am:

Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top.

Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/election-nostradamus-sta...

And Lichtman argues 10 out of 10 - that the 2000 election was, yep(!), stolen from Gore by the US Supreme Court when it prematurely stopped the Florida recount with Bush a few hundred votes ahead. At the time Jeb Bush, George W's brother, was the Governor of Florida.

Also, Lichtman's model has been successfully retroactively applied to every US election since Abraham Lincoln's in 1860.

It's certainly a very good model (although he oversells it a bit), and he might very well be right again this year.

However, even if Harris wins the electoral college, I doubt very much that we'll see her inaugurated in January 2025.

Greggy will not have a clear line of sight from McDonalds even if his associate Karnal lifts Greggy on his shoulders.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #12 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:09pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:01pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:49am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:31am:

Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top.

Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/election-nostradamus-sta...

And Lichtman argues 10 out of 10 - that the 2000 election was, yep(!), stolen from Gore by the US Supreme Court when it prematurely stopped the Florida recount with Bush a few hundred votes ahead. At the time Jeb Bush, George W's brother, was the Governor of Florida.

Also, Lichtman's model has been successfully retroactively applied to every US election since Abraham Lincoln's in 1860.

It's certainly a very good model (although he oversells it a bit), and he might very well be right again this year.

A 'very good model'?? 'oversells it'??

It has arguably been successfully applied to every US Federal election since 1860.

What standard would qualify as excellent to you?

How can you oversell a perfect record?

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greggerypeccary

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #13 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:09pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:01pm:

MeisterEckhart wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 11:49am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 10:31am:

Despite recent polls giving former President Donald Trump an edge in the 2024 presidential election, American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman is standing by his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will come out on top.

Lichtman, 77, has been dubbed by some the election “Nostradamus” due to his track record of predicting nine of the past 10 presidential contests.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/election-nostradamus-sta...

And Lichtman argues 10 out of 10 - that the 2000 election was, yep(!), stolen from Gore by the US Supreme Court when it prematurely stopped the Florida recount with Bush a few hundred votes ahead. At the time Jeb Bush, George W's brother, was the Governor of Florida.

Also, Lichtman's model has been successfully retroactively applied to every US election since Abraham Lincoln's in 1860.

It's certainly a very good model (although he oversells it a bit), and he might very well be right again this year.

A 'very good model'?? 'oversells it'??

It has arguably been successfully applied to every US Federal election since 1860.

What standard would qualify as excellent to you?

How can you oversell a perfect record?

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

It's by far the best model out there.

I hope he maintains his perfect record. I'm behind him 100%.

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: The guy called the election Nostradamus has chosen
Reply #14 - Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:25pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2024 at 12:15pm:

His record is exemplary.

But nobody can actually predict the future.

He seems to think his model is infallible, which it obviously isn't.

So you haven't listened to Lichtman, then.

He emphasises that his model cannot infallibly predict the future.

In his own words:

'Can my prediction be wrong? Of course it can. There can always be an event that is so catastrophic that it changes the outcome of an election. And I'm not so arrogant, like Speaker Mike Johnson - that the Almighty speaks to me from on high... But I stick with the model. I don't change it on the fly, and so far it has proved to be 100% accurate'.

He reiterates that in almost every interview and discussion of his keys, he's had all year.

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