Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 5
th, 2024 at 10:59am:
Like it or not, right or wrong, the person occupying the Oval Office holds great sway over almost the entire world - including Australia.
Agreed. The US is still the world's superpower and 'global policeman', though China is increasingly a counterweight.
Quote: a trade war with countries like China and that will have a flow-on effect to consumers here in this country.
China is proving adept at coping with Trump's tarrifs which began in 2017, but certainly an all out trade war will affect the global economy; economists predict inflation in the US will soar.
Quote:On the geopolitical front, I feel pretty confident in predicting that at some point during a Trump presidency over the next four years, China will invade Taiwan and assert total control over the South China Sea, a vital shipping trade route for us here in Australia, where the vast bulk of our goods arrive by sea.
1. China would only invade Taiwan if Trump promised not to intervene; then China could bring the separatists in Taiwan to heel without firing a shot, by blockading the island (air and sea). A majority of Taiwanese don't want war with the mainland. (The governing DPP only has 40% support on the island). Xi is as anti-war as Trump. And the UN would be on board: the "One China" principle is supported by the UN (but not by RW nut-jobs like James Patterson who thinks China's EVs are a security risk).
(In contrast, Israel is now despised by most of the UN, whereas Trump will give the war criminal Netanyahu free range to end the war - preferably quickly - on Israel's terms).
Quote:On the topic of Ukraine, only a brain dead, complete and utter moron would believe Trump when he says he'll have the war over in no time at all. Didn't he say within 24 hours? I don't remember what the timeframe was exactly. He will fail in this regard, that's a given, and then refuse to provide more support (monetarily and/or militarily) for Ukraine.
Your error: Putin is increasingly unpopular at home because of his disastrous war (for the Russian economy; Putin was supposed to have the war done in 2 weeks..) .
Therefore he will negotiate and accept Trump's
conditions to end the war ; and btw Russia isn't interested in attacking NATO countries, that's just Western paranoia.
Zelensky will be irrelevent: he can't fight without US support.
Sorry, but you are wrong on this point. I agree that Putin is unpopular in Russia. But he doesn't care. Putin couldn't care less because he's a dictator who imprisons or kills his political opponents both at home and abroad. He won't care what a fool like Trump says to him about his war in Ukraine. He's likely betting on Trump withdrawing US support for Ukraine, in which case he will very likely succeed in his invasion. Odds are that Putin is betting on a Trump win this week!
Quote:This will lead to Russia succeeding in its invasion and probably moving on to one of Ukraine's smaller nearby neighbours - probably Moldova and possibly even Finland if Putin is feeling lucky. Why does this matter to us? Because any time there's a war like this, prices of products - especially fuel - go up for all of us.
The war has already caused fuel inflation around the world for the last 2 years, and wrecked Germany's economy (loss of planned pipelines to cheap Russian gas, etc). As for Finland, it's off-limits under Trump.
Quote:Then closer to home there's the AUKUS agreement. Not sure where Trump stands on this, but I'd be surprised if he's a fan of it and that could see it on the chopping block. That would leave just the UK and Australia, so I'm not sure if we'd be able to go it alone for a nuclear submarine capability with only the UK.
A good outcome: Oz doesn't need a $half a trillion nuclear sub program to defend itself.
Quote:All in all, a Trump presidency will be bad for us here in Australia - very bad.
The worst aspect might be the results of Trump's 'fossil fuel hoax', if indeed AGW-CO2 is a real and present danger.
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